The Wolf I think I'm definitely lacking in the speed department. I just looked it up and I need to run a marathon at a 6:06 mile to get a 2:40. I need to be significantly faster than that at the mile, before 6:06 feels comfortable enough to run for almost 3 hours. Thanks, I'll set some goals for shorter distances first.
As for your starting point, here are your new pbs:
1 mile: 6:28
5k: 21:58
10k: 45:42
HM: 1:46:56
M: Haven't raced yet
50mile: 10:59:36
And you can currently handle 50mpw of training w/o injuries
P.S. I hope to get to a 2:40 marathon time. After lurking on LRC for I while, I think I'm definitely a slow twitch guy. I know there's a lot of factors involved, but when possible assume the average.
Speculate and discuss
Impossible to tell.
You might get under 3:15 for Marathon. I don't see 2:40 in your future but I have been wrong before.For a 2:40 Marathon you need a 10k time of sub 35 minutes, that's a lot faster than your current 10k PR.
You need to get faster and run a decent weekly mileage while not getting injured. And that not getting injured part is the difficult part.
Also there is no average. All letsrun posters are not average, they are runners already and quite more talented for that, than Joe Average. People forget that here a lot.
LRC is full of guys who are studs who run sub-16 and think they are slow...compared to the average hobbyjoggers anything under sub-20 I'd think would be above-average.
Survivorship bias is alive and well. I do think it's an elite forum, but a lot of guys went through HS and college here as studs and even as they aged their times only fell off a bit. So your 14:50 college guy may still be running in the 16s-low 17s even at age 50.
That 21:58 is really promising. In one year, you should be able to extend that to a full marathon, so around 3:05.
In five years? 2:40 seems reasonable.
Would you focus more on the shorter distances first? or would you just hammer marathon training year round(maybe peak twice a year).
Also a Boston qualifier would be nice even if I don't ever get to 2:40.
I think you could focus on the shorter distances. I'm a 3:20 marathon guy but am realizing I will have to put the marathon away for a cycle or two as I develop my 5k-13.1 speed first if I want to BQ (3:05 for males 35-39). So sub-18:40 5k, sub-39 10k, 1:24-1:26 half, etc.
I do turn 40 in November 2023, so maybe for the April 2024 Boston Marathon I might be able to hit the 3:10 standard for the 40-44M age group in the fall of 2023 if I keep at it.
Would you focus more on the shorter distances first? or would you just hammer marathon training year round(maybe peak twice a year).
Also a Boston qualifier would be nice even if I don't ever get to 2:40.
Hammer the marathon training if that’s what your end goal is. Don’t fall into the trap of only training at your current fitness paces. If you’re a 3:40 guy and you train to run 3:30, you’re going to run around 3:30. If you’re a 3:40 guy and you train to run 2:55, you might run 3:15-3:20.
I thought that's the way to do it safely, and as you get faster and more fit your paces go down naturally w/o hurting yourself, etc.?
I.e. right now I can run a 1:38-ish 1/2 out of the box on an average course after some rest and good weather. I use that current fitness in a calculator to generate my predicted training times and paces to train at for the Pfitzinger workouts I want to do this year. As I get faster then I will adjust.
What would you do? What time can you get to in 5 years? How would you optimize you training year by year?
If you take it really seriously, you should increase your yearly training hours progressively the next 5 years.
Assuming you have now 5h/week (250h/year) you should increase the next years to
350h, 450h, 550h, 650h.
Volume is the most important parameter up to a point. Do not skip a year!
Got it. Do you think tracking by mileage may work better than hours? I figured that as I get faster, I could always cover more mileage for the same hours in a week
Relatively new runner here. I'm a 28 y.o. dude bitten by the running bug. I started running seriously last year and I'm at the point where little training yields a lot of improvement. I know that the ROI will definitely go down as the years tick by.
I have no delusions about my abilities, and I don't think I'm any more talented than the median runner in a global sample but I sure wanted to ask fellow runners. With all the knowledge you have right now, it you were put in a 28 y.o. relatively fit man's body and asked to optimize your marathon time in 5 years and you have time to train consistently year round with no injuries. What would you do? What time can you get to in 5 years? How would you optimize you training year by year? Will you focus on other races to improve your marathon time?
As for your starting point, here are your new pbs:
1 mile: 6:28
5k: 21:58
10k: 45:42
HM: 1:46:56
M: Haven't raced yet
50mile: 10:59:36
And you can currently handle 50mpw of training w/o injuries
P.S. I hope to get to a 2:40 marathon time. After lurking on LRC for I while, I think I'm definitely a slow twitch guy. I know there's a lot of factors involved, but when possible assume the average.
Speculate and discuss
How good can you get?
Depends on your natural talent. That's it. You are making "consistent and good training" a given, so since that is the case, your inherent talent is what determines how good you can get. Not toughness, not wanting it, not any of the other crap that runners believe.
Talent + training = results
Level of talent and effectiveness of training affects how good the results are, and of the two, talent is the biggest obstacle.
If you take it really seriously, you should increase your yearly training hours progressively the next 5 years.
Assuming you have now 5h/week (250h/year) you should increase the next years to
350h, 450h, 550h, 650h.
Volume is the most important parameter up to a point. Do not skip a year!
Got it. Do you think tracking by mileage may work better than hours? I figured that as I get faster, I could always cover more mileage for the same hours in a week
You can track both, because they are related but hours is more important. If you do a long run you go basically by time, a easy/recovery run is also mostly limited by time, an interval is limited by time (distance per rep = velocity * time), a tempo run is limited by time ...
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