Can we finally declare Teare as a real global threat?

Wise Old Man wrote:

It seems everybody bought in to the notion that Hocker is a 1500 and Teare is a 5000 runner, maybe even Teare himself, but the results to date don’t make this clear. Do we really have strong evidence that Cole has a far better close than Teare? Every time they race head to head Teare has been as fast down the stretch, or at least fast enough. Right now the US 5000 crew is fairly strong and there’s a good chance Teare will end up just like last time, in a close 4th or worse. The 1500 is weak. Teare may well beat Hocker, and even if not, Nuguse is flailing, then there’s a bunch of old guys and 2nd tier guys. Is there anybody Teare wouldn’t be expected to beat? He can handle the likes of Alexander, Prakel, Thompson. I guess it’s always hard to tell where Chelimo will be at, but Teare has a lot better shot at Engels et al than Chelimo or Kincaid, or Fisher.

here is the truth wrote:

xcfan2233 wrote:

I think your conversion is a bit generous, but I do think he could sneak under 13 in a better setup race. Hes also not at the level of Chep/Jakob/Ahmed etc. yet, but I think hes good enough to make a global final at this point.

The problem is the 5k is pretty stacked at the US level, with Chelimo/Fisher real medal threats, and Kincaid a dangerous kicker especially in a slow US race. He might be better off focusing on the 1500 where Hocker is the only global caliber guy + Engels/Nuguse/Centro all have their question marks so far this year.

If you look at the splits for their race, Teare and Hocker were running very conservative. They didn't start on pace for 12:50 and then fall off. They put in a controlled effort with a fast last lap to ensure they got the qualifying time. And as someone else noted, the weather conditions were crappy.

If they wanted to, they could run 12:53 (Teare) and 12:56 (Hocker) and 2 months. Preparing for a sprint finish in a championship race is probably a better use of their time than setting up time trials.

High hopes wrote:

here is the truth wrote:

If you look at the splits for their race, Teare and Hocker were running very conservative. They didn't start on pace for 12:50 and then fall off. They put in a controlled effort with a fast last lap to ensure they got the qualifying time. And as someone else noted, the weather conditions were crappy.

If they wanted to, they could run 12:53 (Teare) and 12:56 (Hocker) and 2 months. Preparing for a sprint finish in a championship race is probably a better use of their time than setting up time trials.

Come on, man! You really think Teare and Hocker are at the same level right now as Lagat and Ritzenhein (respectively) when they were near their peak, because that's what you're saying when you throw out times like that. They're good, but putting them in the sub-13 bracket right now is just fanboy daydreaming

High hopes wrote:

here is the truth wrote:

If you look at the splits for their race, Teare and Hocker were running very conservative. They didn't start on pace for 12:50 and then fall off. They put in a controlled effort with a fast last lap to ensure they got the qualifying time. And as someone else noted, the weather conditions were crappy.

If they wanted to, they could run 12:53 (Teare) and 12:56 (Hocker) and 2 months. Preparing for a sprint finish in a championship race is probably a better use of their time than setting up time trials.

Come on, man! You really think Teare and Hocker are at the same level right now as Lagat and Ritzenhein (respectively) when they were near their peak, because that's what you're saying when you throw out times like that. They're good, but putting them in the sub-13 bracket right now is just fanboy daydreaming

Seppo Kaitenenn wrote:

High hopes wrote:

Come on, man! You really think Teare and Hocker are at the same level right now as Lagat and Ritzenhein (respectively) when they were near their peak, because that's what you're saying when you throw out times like that. They're good, but putting them in the sub-13 bracket right now is just fanboy daydreaming

Has it ever crossed your mind that runners might be faster now than they were 10-20 years ago?

At the collegiate level, was a 3:56/7:46/13:28 not making INDOOR NCAAs just a fluke? An also-ran running a 3:52.02 indoor mile? 20-year-old Westerners suddenly routinely running 13:20?

At the national level, what about a 24-year-old American running 12:53 indoors closing in a sub-4 mile. Or a 26:33 10k in the United States?

At the global level, Cheptegei is clearly beatable, as evidenced by losses last year up to and including the Olympic 10k and a narrow 5k margin. He owns the WRs in the 5k and 10k both run in hot weather. I'm not a genius, but I feel that implies that other runners can run pretty fast times too. That means sub-12:40 these days.

Here are some things to consider:

It was several years ago that Kejelcha actually pushed the pace in good weather in a 5k and the result was 3 guys running low-12:40s. Barega won that race and went on to beat Cheptegei in the Olympic 10k.

If Justyn Knight can run 12:51 I'm pretty sure at least 3 guys in the world can run 12:3x.

I haven't even mentioned Mo Katir who ran 3:28 and 12:50 at age 23 after just a few years of training.

Jakob of course defeated most of the heavy hitters in Florence last year in 12:48 in a not ideal race, and went on to improve his 1,500m PR and win the Olympic Gold. His trajectory would indicate 12:38 fitness or so in 2022, especially because of his unique training approach. Not a gaurantee, of course, but likely.

Cheptegei is making ANOTHER 5k world record attempt in May. Why would he do this in a championship year if he didn't feel that his record might be under fire? And who's to say he'll even win that race, if PRE Classic decides to invite the other heavy hitters to go for the record as well.

It's not some "roll of the dice" in which you randomly divide all of history's greatest runners into various epochs. It's a general increasing of the level, as evidenced by the insane depth of times and quality of races, and shown in most other sports too, and aided by supershoe and supertrack technology.

In conclusion, yes, Hocker and Teare are going to end up running a lot faster than Ritz and Lagat. They're already knocking on the door.

Open your eyes.

High hopes wrote:

Seppo Kaitenenn wrote:

Has it ever crossed your mind that runners might be faster now than they were 10-20 years ago?

At the collegiate level, was a 3:56/7:46/13:28 not making INDOOR NCAAs just a fluke? An also-ran running a 3:52.02 indoor mile? 20-year-old Westerners suddenly routinely running 13:20?

At the national level, what about a 24-year-old American running 12:53 indoors closing in a sub-4 mile. Or a 26:33 10k in the United States?

At the global level, Cheptegei is clearly beatable, as evidenced by losses last year up to and including the Olympic 10k and a narrow 5k margin. He owns the WRs in the 5k and 10k both run in hot weather. I'm not a genius, but I feel that implies that other runners can run pretty fast times too. That means sub-12:40 these days.

Here are some things to consider:

It was several years ago that Kejelcha actually pushed the pace in good weather in a 5k and the result was 3 guys running low-12:40s. Barega won that race and went on to beat Cheptegei in the Olympic 10k.

If Justyn Knight can run 12:51 I'm pretty sure at least 3 guys in the world can run 12:3x.

I haven't even mentioned Mo Katir who ran 3:28 and 12:50 at age 23 after just a few years of training.

Jakob of course defeated most of the heavy hitters in Florence last year in 12:48 in a not ideal race, and went on to improve his 1,500m PR and win the Olympic Gold. His trajectory would indicate 12:38 fitness or so in 2022, especially because of his unique training approach. Not a gaurantee, of course, but likely.

Cheptegei is making ANOTHER 5k world record attempt in May. Why would he do this in a championship year if he didn't feel that his record might be under fire? And who's to say he'll even win that race, if PRE Classic decides to invite the other heavy hitters to go for the record as well.

It's not some "roll of the dice" in which you randomly divide all of history's greatest runners into various epochs. It's a general increasing of the level, as evidenced by the insane depth of times and quality of races, and shown in most other sports too, and aided by supershoe and supertrack technology.

In conclusion, yes, Hocker and Teare are going to end up running a lot faster than Ritz and Lagat. They're already knocking on the door.

Open your eyes.

You're right, it's not a random roll of the dice, people have to actually run the times, which none of these guys (Cheptegei apart) have done yet. I would happily bet a lot of money that by the end of this year, there will still be only one active athlete that has run sub-12:40. Until the other guys start laying down times, all this is just fanboy projecting.