NCAA Indoor Championships!!! WOMEN'S Distance Discussion!!!

Please show me where I picked Dudek to win. Logue got 4th in Nationals XC btw. For whatever reason did not qualify for 5k or 3K indoors though.

You do always seem very sure in your predictions, I will say that.

Dude it's just hella Petty to go back and dig up an old thread totally unprovoked

Especially when you're agreeing with what I'm saying

If we were in a debate about something then fine knock yourself out

But to just do it to try to make me look bad without any reason. When your own predictions have been really lousy in the past, is petty!

You predict Stanford to win in 2021, you said it multiple times, and they did terrible

You predicted Donahue to win and you predicted dudek to be top five,

AAnd those turned out to be terrible predictions

But I wouldn't even think about going back and looking for quotes to try to make you look bad I mean who cares bro

For the most part, we have no way of knowing and this is all just guessing,

because we don't know about injuries or sickness or training issues

logue is a great college runner, but I just think people overestimate her as being super elite when if you look at the last year or so that was her one big performance

AAnyway dudek and stanford, predictions were even worse than mine because dudek was out of the top 10 by 140 spots

And Stanford lost by like 200 points

i do think nc state has chance to podium if katelyn runs in the dmr as their anchor, her kick has improved alot- and shes their top 1500m runner next to elly henes but sadly shes not on the dmr team this year

a dmr team can consist of at least 4 runners to 8 runners at most ...and like, it depends on how much your school wants to spend on the travel expenses

kelsey is having a breakout season since last year but at the acc she did not do well, we will see how she does ~ its going to be interesting

His predictions don't impact the outcome so why call him out on past predictions? Predictions are fun. Let people enjoy themselves. Posting on an anonymous website makes it too easy to be mean to people without really considering how it makes the person feel.

Agreed, and it didn't really make sense because he started out by agreeing and then he called the guy out for being off on a past prediction.

So is wayment doing both the DMR and the 5k? Aren't they pretty close together TimeWise

I am trying to post a longer response but the site does not appear to be letting me. The gist of it is 1) an apology for ruffling feathers 2) a repeat that I don't think I made the predictions about Dudek and Stanford that were claimed including a listing of 6 threads which discussed XC. The threads are 10420828, 10483616 and 10464743 for 2020 and 10902310, 10883736 and10951959 for 2021. And, my real reason for the post which was (is?) the comedy of the certainty of predictions - especially those saying something like no way XXX will place that high - when as acknowledged above these are guesses.

the whole post

I seem to have ruffled some feathers. So for the sake of world peace,
I will apologize.
But, as I agree 100% with "For the most part, we have no way of knowing
and this is all just guessing, because we don't know about injuries or sickness
or training issues" I find the conviction of some predictions (ie our
guesses), well, amusing. It does make predictions easier to remember
though!
Here is another one from predictions for 2021 XC (a different commenter to
be left unnamed)
"Chelengat will win by 5
Chmiel mccabe should be in top 5
Nichols won't be in top 10, maybe not 20
Covert won't be in top 25 maybe not 40 or even 50
Orton won't be in top 5 maybe not 10"
For refresher, Orton won and Nichols was 8th I believe.
Similar predictions were made about Cailie Logue (not placing high), with
equal conviction. She finished 4th (after winning regional over Roe who
was strong all year, and finishing 2nd in her conference to McCabe). [BTW this
is why I like Roe for the 3000 - fresh, good mile time, and no bad race all
year]
Runners having a bad day or getting injured in a race are unpredictable of
course. But the certainty of "no way" (fill in the blank) will
place "as high as" seems odd, especially with no supporting
data. I don't think I ever said anything except I think XXX will place in
YYY.
And yes I have been wrong. Covert I had 15-20 as I
recall. She finished 31st (but not 51st!!) but it's hard to say it was
due to an unpredictable bad day. If she had run 5 seconds faster she
would have been 20th though.
I found 3 threads related to 2020 NCAA XC and 3 more for 2021. In none
of them can I find where I thought Dudek would win. I also don't think I
ever called for Stanford to win, but like many (if you reread the threads) I
thought they would have one of the top teams going into the 2020
championship. Here is one of my comments on the 2020 championship
"fwiw The Stride Report has Stanford at 59 without their 5th, who is not
ranked in top 50. They have Lawson and Heymach at 27/28 which seems odd (to me)
as there has been a gap there all year. They have Donaghu and Dudek at 1/3
which also seems aggressive to me".
see this thread letsrun.com/forum/flat_read.php?thread=10464743&page=6
But, it turned out Dudek was hurt and Lawson never ran (and hasn't run since
- what has happened to her?).
The threads are 10420828, 10483616 and 10464743 for 2020 and 10902310,
10883736 and 10951959 for 2021. If I missed it, here is your chance to
call me out.
Again, I am just chuckling at the certainly with which guesses are stated.

It's all good man, I like your posts... You provide a lot of good updates and info

It's funny but the second predictions you quoted I actually think were pretty good

I mean maybe it was a little overconfident but they pretty much nailed that a lot of people were overpredicting covert and nickels. And mercy chmiel and McCabe were all pretty close

Orton bombed in the spring, so maybe people thought that history would repeat

You want to talk about crazy predictions, look at all the threads with endless talk about the girls who were going to be way better than Katelyn tuohy in college

Also I remember guys going on and on about how three girls were going to smash every distance record by huge margins a couple years ago in high school distance running. They never smashed any records by any margins, and certainly not three girls

I predict that Mercy will push the pace because she always seems to do that and the smartrunnerss will tuck in behind her and then out kick her

Be careful. There is a lot of college left. There are some 2020 women ahead of her who were not predicted to be so there will probably be more passing her.

I agree on Mercy (or if necessary Chmiel) pushing the 5000 pace, which again makes me (and you) wonder what is going on with the DMR? I think the only way it might work is if the 5000 was a very slow kicker type race. Recall last March Chmiel and Steelman got burned by the weird pacing of the 5000. One would think they would try not to let that happen again.

On the plus side for those 3 runners Thorvaldson and Brown have showed recently they are starting to come into better form - but still in a tier below the top NCAA group (including Tuohy). But maybe next year if this go well for them.

I'm referring to past discussion about specific girls who some are not even running anymore and others are very mediocre Division 1 runners. Who people were going on and on about as future greats

Just like the other poster said, so what? People have fun with predictions. Don't let it get under your skin. This is an anonymous website. Some predictions are exaggerated for fun. Some are serious and they don't pan out. None o those predictions impact your real life so there is no reason to go back in time by 2 years. It just allows somebody else to live inside your head forever.

Yeah but if people are being completely ridiculous and absurd at some point you have to push back

I mean the beliefs people argue for have to impact the decisions they make about important stuff like health and safety so it's good to try to talk some sense to people

I mean take this example, the midfoot striker who is a pretty reasonable poster, maybe a little bold, but certainly not spreading crazy nonsense. All he did was say two Runners would be outside the top 10 who ended up being number one and number four. In the past there have been people who predicted other runners in the top 10 when they finished well outside the top 100

I mean I do think fast touhy was a little quicks to call him out on that when like he said, fast touhy was off with his 2020 predictions

But I guess if you predict someone would do bad and they do good it stands out a little more

There are tons of predictions of people doing good that do bad that people forget about

It's what makes all those charlatans snake oil salesman psychics able to fool the gullible because they remember the hits and forget the misses

I think he's being a little Coy about it but I do remember him also singing the Praises of three or more of the following, Stanford, Sophia dudek, logue, and herberg as standouts when they didn't do verywell,

As well as the argument over the 100-point barrier, both the winning teams of the last 2 years and the overwhelming majority of years have scored under a hundred

Anyway it was just kind of funny that he was calling out the striker

Not to mention the guy has completely revolutionized the sport of running. We'd all be striking on our heels if it wasn't for his contributions!

Here's a prediction, Katelyn Tuohy for the win! First National Championship, message board will go crazy

Yeah but it's easy to post anonymously, you don't have the pressure of people going to dig it up for years to come