I think Hocker is capable of running faster times and I dont obsess over medals, so my bet is on Hocker eventually becoming the better athlete of the two.
And don't get it twisted, what currently makes Kerr a better athlete than Hocker is not a dumb bronze medal, it's the fact that he has demonstrated the ability to run over 2 seconds faster than Hocker.
Hocker will run 3:28 at some point this season and outkick Kerr for bronze at Eugene 2022. That will be the beginning of the end of this debate.
Greg wrote:
the one who collects more medals, better times and more victories over there other.
What sterling insight. Thank you.
I think I might be alone in thinking this year is a free swing for Hocker. Expectations should be low for his first year as a pro and he should frame it as a transition year and anything more is a bonus. It's a much more important year for Kerr. He's at his peak and now needs to back up his Olympic medal. He's still talking big, so the motivation seems to be there. I'm guessing he won't race much and all focus will be on Eugene. They have similar strengths as runners but I expect Kerr will have more global medals at the end of his career, at the minute, he just has a better ability to kick off a hard pace. But it also wouldn't be a huge surprise if Hocker surpasses him either. The bigger surprise would be if either of them ever beats Ingebrigtsen in a race.
On another point, it was interesting how Rojo was defining a better career. He said he thought Hocker would have a better career because he'd be relevant longer, emphasizing his range, even if he didn't win medals. I think that's true, Hocker could be making Olympic teams into his early 30s. It's just interesting to see that kind of take, seeing running as a job more than a chance at being the best. Is success really just staying in the sport and finishing 6th?
Final point: the World Champs will not be a super fast race. Everyone seems to be forgetting just how special the Tokyo track is. Eugene hasn't produced any amazing times as yet, other than Jeruto's clean WR in the steeple. I think it's more likely we'll see the 1500 won in 3:29-3:30, maybe even 3:31
High hopes wrote:
Final point: the World Champs will not be a super fast race. Everyone seems to be forgetting just how special the Tokyo track is. Eugene hasn't produced any amazing times as yet, other than Jeruto's clean WR in the steeple. I think it's more likely we'll see the 1500 won in 3:29-3:30, maybe even 3:31
It might not be as fast as Tokyo, but it will be a test of strength and stamina. Neither Cheruyiot, Ingebrigtsen or McSweyn will allow it to be slow.
Both of these guys will be irrelevant due to Hobbs Kessler very soon. Look out for Kessler in 2024!
Seppo Kaitenenn wrote:
Hocker will run 3:28 at some point this season and outkick Kerr for bronze at Eugene 2022. That will be the beginning of the end of this debate.
You are going on record I see stating neither Hocker or Kerr will race for gold. Cowardly racing tactics. Does anyone respect the way Kerr raced at Olympics? Kerr never even tried for gold. If an athlete ends up with bronze after attempting to achieve gold, I respect those athletes. Kerr is in the same category as Bodo Tummler and Paul Heinz-Wellmann. I thought posters were saying Hocker has a gold medal kick?
GrapeSon wrote:
High hopes wrote:
Final point: the World Champs will not be a super fast race. Everyone seems to be forgetting just how special the Tokyo track is. Eugene hasn't produced any amazing times as yet, other than Jeruto's clean WR in the steeple. I think it's more likely we'll see the 1500 won in 3:29-3:30, maybe even 3:31
It might not be as fast as Tokyo, but it will be a test of strength and stamina. Neither Cheruyiot, Ingebrigtsen or McSweyn will allow it to be slow.
It will be a test of 1500 metres, not the 100m race that American fans want. The Tokyo track being fast is irrelevant because Timothy, Yakob, and co. will push thenselves to whatever time the track allows. If a 3:29 effort yields a 3:31 that doesnt mean everyone else gets a chance at gold, it means their +3:31s become slower still.
OozmaKappa wrote:
GrapeSon wrote:
It might not be as fast as Tokyo, but it will be a test of strength and stamina. Neither Cheruyiot, Ingebrigtsen or McSweyn will allow it to be slow.
It will be a test of 1500 metres, not the 100m race that American fans want. The Tokyo track being fast is irrelevant because Timothy, Yakob, and co. will push thenselves to whatever time the track allows. If a 3:29 effort yields a 3:31 that doesnt mean everyone else gets a chance at gold, it means their +3:31s become slower still.
BOOM!
this.
another good post from Oozma
GrapeSon wrote:
High hopes wrote:
Final point: the World Champs will not be a super fast race. Everyone seems to be forgetting just how special the Tokyo track is. Eugene hasn't produced any amazing times as yet, other than Jeruto's clean WR in the steeple. I think it's more likely we'll see the 1500 won in 3:29-3:30, maybe even 3:31
It might not be as fast as Tokyo, but it will be a test of strength and stamina. Neither Cheruyiot, Ingebrigtsen or McSweyn will allow it to be slow.
Cheruyiot and J. Ingebrigrtsen will race to win, no matter the pace through 700m or 800m. S. McSweyn needs to think about the wisdom of his strategy. Either leading to 1200m or racing fast on the pace the first 1000m is not working for S. McSweyn. I'd like to see McSweyn run in the pack with Kerr and Hocker through 1000m, no matter how slow is the early pace. I don't like seeing McSweyn curling up in fetal position over the final 200m. In a race among sub-3:32 guys, a kick is more about what one has in the reserve tank than pure sprinting speed (unless 1000m is split slower than 2:35).
Cole Hocker. What was Josh Kerr doing when he was 19/20? He wasn't running 3:31 and running in world/olympic finals. Cole Hocker is on track to run 3:28/12:50 and have several medals, possibly a gold (I said POSSIBLY) given his room for growth. I think Kerr will have a great career, but is probably nearing the end of his development.
A BIG BUMP.
John Wesley Harding wrote:
THOUGHTSLEADER wrote:
The safe bet is Josh Kerr as he has already has an Olympic bronze medal. Cole has been ahead of him at every checkpoint though. So if he progresses he theoretically has higher upside. But Josh last year had a big breakthrough, and there’re no guarantees for Cole.
The current 1500 landscape works for Kerr as he clearly can run hard from the gun and he seems to struggle tactically in slower races. In another era you’d be concerned about him translating 3:29 ability into medals but in this one there’re no worries.
As usual THOUGHTSLEADER’s post is very well reasoned, except I take a small issue with the last sentence since I think a 3:29 has always put one firmly in medal contention.
Smart money leans slightly to Kerr, but I personally believe Hocker will outdo him. Even if Hocker “only” runs 3:29.9, I think he’ll kick to a global medal some day and run a sub-13 5k eventually—and (unfairly I admit) I suspect that Kerr has already had his career highlight.
Well, Hocker’s kicked to a global medal (the big one) and run sub-13 already, and blew 3:29.9 to smithereens, but I was very wrong about Kerr’s Tokyo bronze being his career highlight.
This was a great thread bump.
I know everyone’s high on Hocker’s gold/Oly record and rightly so, and some probably think that’s an unbeatable trump card, but I think the fair and measured take is that Kerr has had the better career so far. WC gold, Oly bronze, Oly silver, World Indoor 3k gold, 3:27.79/3:45.34/8:00.67… Still taking Hocker in the long run though, no doubt.
Cole Hocker first three global Championshps
2021- 6th 3:31.40 age 20
2023- 7th 3:30.70 age 22
2024- 1st 3:27.60 age 23
Josh Kerr first three global championships
2017- bounced out of first round age 19
2019- 6th 3:32.52 age 21
2021- 3rd 3:29.05 age 23
John Wesley Harding wrote:
Well, Hocker’s kicked to a global medal (the big one) and run sub-13 already, and blew 3:29.9 to smithereens, but I was very wrong about Kerr’s Tokyo bronze being his career highlight.
This was a great thread bump.
I know everyone’s high on Hocker’s gold/Oly record and rightly so, and some probably think that’s an unbeatable trump card, but I think the fair and measured take is that Kerr has had the better career so far. WC gold, Oly bronze, Oly silver, World Indoor 3k gold, 3:27.79/3:45.34/8:00.67… Still taking Hocker in the long run though, no doubt.
Yes for sure but similar to my post you brought up, Hocker is ahead of him at the checkpoints again. That’s even with Kerr having a better run of health in his early 20s. The trajectory looks great for Hocker and we’ll see if he does better in 2025 than Kerr did in 2022 where he threw away the season being unmotivated. Tacking on another medal next year would set him up great. 2026 will be an ideal time to chase times.