stipe wrote:
I think KK would fit this same profile. The guy is basically a pure marathoner. When he was running his sub 2:06's, I believe he was barely running sub 29 or sub 1:02-1:03.
Honestly, you are all kidding yourselves if you think that there are sub-2:22 marathoners who can't break 32:30 for 10k, or that there are sub-2:06 marathoners who can barely break 29 for 10k or 1:03 for a half-marathon. Sure, KK might have run 1:03 for a hilly half in sweltering heat in Puerto Rico leading up to a sub-2:06, and there might be 32-minute 10-k runners who have run sub-2:22 at St. George or Steamboat or some other downhill "marathon," but if you look carefully at the courses, conditions, and timing of their various races, the correlation between performances over a wide range of distances is pretty tight.
For various reasons, the top female marathoners may run relatively slower for shorter distances. Even among those runners, however, the correlation is not as far off the charts as one might guess. When Paula R. ran her 2:15+ paced time trial in London behind a cadre of Kenyan men, and when she ran her 2:17+ world best, she was probably in condition to run solidly under 30 for 10k. A 2:17 for a sub-30 10K runner training 150 miles a week is decent, but not exactly shocking.