Could Rudisha and Mu have won slow 1500 finals in Rio?

Not elite level of course but I'm a 1500/5K guy who trains with a lot of 5K/10K guys, so my kick is stronger but endurance poorer.

If we do a session exclusively inluding shorter reps, I will generally lead the whole session, but if we do a session consisting of both longer reps and shorter reps, even though I run the longer reps slower than many others, I will also be slower on the shorter reps. Simply because doing any longer effort (e.g. K's at 5K pace) takes more out of me than it takes out of them (even though they run it faster).

Using this logic, it's reasonable to say that any 800 guy in a 1500 race, even if the pace is slower, would still be more fatigued going into the last lap. Unless the start were extremely slow to the point of being a jog.

DouchebagsAnonymous wrote:

1500 is the new 800 wrote:

Both 1500 finals in 2016 Rio Olympics were essentially 700 warmup + 800 race.

Do you think 2012 Rudisha and 2021 Mu could have won them?

Yes, for Rudisha, but he'd have to be disguised in order for the rest to actually go along at 2:50 through 1100 with him in the race.

...Regardless, a 50 second final 400 (Centro) almost matches Rudisha's final 400 of his WR 800 so it wouldn't exactly be easy against the strength guys. ....Centro's bell 400 was incredible, despite the many naysayers

No.

800 is about strength.

1500 has way faster kickers

People think that kicking in a tactical 1500 comes down purely to speed over the final lap, it as just as much if not more to do with positioning, agility, tactics and acceleration, none of which were Rudisha's specialties.

If Rudisha had a history of winning in races that he ran in the pack and then broke away over the final 150 then maybe but that is literally the opposite of how Rudisha ran, he was get out front from the gun, avoid traffic and run away from everyone else.

AXC wrote:

People think that kicking in a tactical 1500 comes down purely to speed over the final lap, it as just as much if not more to do with positioning, agility, tactics and acceleration, none of which were Rudisha's specialties.

If Rudisha had a history of winning in races that he ran in the pack and then broke away over the final 150 then maybe but that is literally the opposite of how Rudisha ran, he was get out front from the gun, avoid traffic and run away from everyone else.

I don't believe it as complicated as you are making it. I don't believe if David Rudisha were in 2016 Olympic 1500m F he would have won even though 1200m was split in 3:12. I do believe if the pace were slow enough, close to 3:30 split at 1200m, Rudisha would have won. If 1200m were spilt slower than 3:15, 2016 Olympic 1500mF, I don't believe Matt Centrowitz would have been the top competitor. If 2016 Olympics 1500mF were split slower than 3:15, it would have only been a battle among the sub-1:44 800m men. We can get extreme with the possibilities. We can come up with split slow enough at 1200m in order for Wayde van Niekerk to have been the victor.

If the 2024 Olympic 1500 goes out in 3:22 or slower, then I think Will Sumner takes the gold.

agree there is a split slow enough where rudisha wins, but i think for van niekerk or any 2/4 - pure 4 guy to win it it'd have to be pretty close to walking

snowdays wrote:

i think the idea of 800 runners, especially 400/800 runners being deadly kickers in the 1500/mile is fantasy. they're usually not even good kickers in the 800.

with 400 to go, Rudisha is not thinking "wow, that was so easy, i can drop a 49 because i have the best top speed" , he's actually thinking - "i've been racing for 3 minutes already, what do you mean i'm not done yet?"

This is the correct answer. As an 800 guy, the kick at the end of any race mile and up is so different than even a negative split 800.

I remeber Borzakovskyi running the 1500 in the European cup at his prime. They started out at a ridiculous 2,16 800 and the commentators said that they played straight into the hands of him. Then the leaders threw in a fast lap and he was toast.

Well now we know the answer for Mu. No

OP here... Yes, that was very convincing. Case closed.

I think several good arguments have been made in the thread but Mu DNF last night is, although strikingly manifesting the weaknesses of speed based runners, not one of them because this was a fairly fast race if not as fast as 2 years ago, certainly closer to a ~3:33 men's 1500m than the Rio 3:50.