RoadWarrior77 wrote:
Just a hypothetical. Feel free to discuss.
The difference between "can they do it?" and "will they do it?" is substantial. Look at the 5k over the last 15 years. Slow, slow, slow, then boom 12:46. Then slow, slow, slow, boom 12:43. Then times were even slower than before for a bit; boom--Cheptegei runs 12:35. Of course the 1500 is vastly different from the 5000, but keep in mind how large the difference between a regular race and a perfect race can be, and you never know when you're going to see the latter until it hits.
I still remember that towards the beginning of Kiprop's career, he was seen as more of a "tactical racer". Not that his tactics were ever good, but the idea was that he was best in a slow race. I believe his PR was 3:31 for a while. Then he goes 3:29, 3:28, 3:26, and he's seen as a top-end-speed guy. Really, he likely always had abilities in the 3:26-3:28 ballpark, which is probably how he kept winning all those 3:31+ races with poor tactics.
Between the two of them, Cheruiyot and Ingebrigtsen have run 3:28 a total of six times. Maybe they've happened to have their top form and perfect conditions several times over the past couple years. But more likely, the lightning hasn't yet struck--and may never do so. If it does, I could see them both going 3:24.