wejo wrote:
With 30 seconds left cowboys could have thrown 3-4 hail mary’s . To me that seems a better chance of winning than maybe getting to the 25 and taking one shot. Any stats back this up? what are the odds of a 50’yard Hail Mary?
Probably a higher percentage chance it gets picked that way. Better to take the higher percentages to work up the field than to toss it up and pray.
https://www.sharpfootballstats.com/comp---by-target-depth.htmlPull up Dak Prescott. Once you get over twenty-five yards down the field, his completion percentage drops to about zero, and that is against standard coverage. In a hail mary scenario, they would probably have even more defensive backs playing deep.
League wide, the odds are about 1 in 12 of completion, about 1 in 48 of an interception and a number end in sacks before they are even thrown. On the other hand, with most teams playing two safeties very deep in situations like this, there are high percentage chances of completion 10 yards up the field, which is why teams typically do those short passes to the sidelines.