troll_69 wrote:
AZDZ wrote:
Overall mortality rate right now is the same as 2005. So let's turn society upside-down and inside-out to save fat granny. From what we aren't sure because the testing is so fraudulent.
Where are you getting these figures from? Everywhere I've looked, deaths per 100,000 in 2020 exceeded 2005 figures. Just curious
It's called "thin air".
They create a mass panic by going full on HEAD ON FIRE about Omicron, then when people get the illness, they rush to the hospital because they've been whipped into such a frenzy over Omicron.
They (media and dishonest politicians) have created a self fulling prophesy.
EpiRunner wrote:
This is something that I can definitely chime in on, it's actually what I did my second master's thesis on.
First though, the definition of risk is the severity of an outcome multiplied by the likelihood of it occuring. The severity of omicron is almost certainly less than that of delta, but because it is more transmissible, you're more likely to get it. On the individual level, if you're healthy you might like your chances and say your risk is lower, and you're probably right. From a public health standpoint, a lot of cases is going to mean a lot of hospitalizations (even if the rate per infection is lower), which overburdens the healthcare system, which leads to poor outcomes for all sorts of things. From that point of view, we'd say that the risk is as high as it's always been, and we'd probably be just as right as you are.
Second, and this was my thesis topic, the public abso-fricking-lutely terrible at judging risk. You might have someone who smokes be worried about getting cancer from their cell phone. Someone who drives 40,000 miles a year for work might be afraid of flying. People panicked over ebola, which had almost no chance of spreading within the US, but will forgo measles vaccination even though there are frequent outbreaks. It's also almost impossible to change people's risk perception once they've made their initial determination. If someone has decided they're afraid of plane crashes, no amount of education on the safety of air travel will change their mind, even when you compare it to the risk of driving.
Excellent post, that will likely get lost amongst the garbage.
We all can relate to feeling "not right" and making the mistake of checking your symptoms on the internet. Somehow my headache could mean brain cancer. There is so much information out there (good bad and unrelated) and at times it can become difficult siting through it all. The "crazies" now have a larger platform and further reach and can get out false and misleading information more than ever before. So, it doesn't surprise me that the public has gotten even worse at judging risk.
NotPC wrote:
They create a mass panic by going full on HEAD ON FIRE about Omicron, then when people get the illness, they rush to the hospital because they've been whipped into such a frenzy over Omicron.
They (media and dishonest politicians) have created a self fulling prophesy.
The vast majority of people running to the hospital are those who are unvaccinated. Vaccinated people are highly unlikely to require medical attention should they get COVID.
But this idea of GOP politicians telling their voting base to "not worry about this" is gold. Sums it all up right there.
Hospitalizations just started to increase about a week ago (it takes about two weeks for cases to translate into hospitalizations). Don't draw conclusions from incomplete data.
Bingo Is His Namo wrote:
NotPC wrote:
They create a mass panic by going full on HEAD ON FIRE about Omicron, then when people get the illness, they rush to the hospital because they've been whipped into such a frenzy over Omicron.
They (media and dishonest politicians) have created a self fulling prophesy.
The vast majority of people running to the hospital are those who are unvaccinated. Vaccinated people are highly unlikely to require medical attention should they get COVID.
But this idea of GOP politicians telling their voting base to "not worry about this" is gold. Sums it all up right there.
The unvaxxed definitely need the hospitalization, but people are going to the hospital that are not in need of that level of care. Look at NYC, it's highly vaxxed but still same issues.
seattle prattle wrote:
Dr. Fauci was quoted on Sunday on ABC’s “This Week with George Stephanopoulos":
“We have got to be careful about that, because, even if you have a less of a percentage of severity, when you have multi-multi-multi-fold more people getting infected, the net amount is you’re still going to get a lot of people that are going to be needing hospitalization,”
And furthermore, he added: "“I’m still very concerned about the tens of millions of people who are not vaccinated at all because even though many of them are going to get asymptomatic and mildly symptomatic, a fair number of them are going to get severe disease,”
I hope this helps.
You still listening to that guy? He’s been debunked so many times
i am so confused wrote:
EpiRunner wrote:
. It's also almost impossible to change people's risk perception once they've made their initial determination. .
This is what is killing us right now. People are vaxxed. People are boosted. Tons of people have been exposed. Therapeutics are available. There is a mountain of proof that Omicron variant is significantly milder. There has never been a better time to catch your inevitable first case of COVID. Because you’re not so stupid as to think you’re going to live the rest of your life without getting it, are you?
And yet people are freaking the F out. Even people who haven’t really given much of a crap about COVID before this, when risk was substantially higher, are freaking out.
It. Makes. No. Sense.
It makes perfect sense when you consider the response has zero to do with public health and everything to do with power and politics.
Sure the typical slobs on the left may pretend its about saving lives but the evil overlords only care about the next election and mass mail in voting benefits the left. Never let a crisis go to waste as they say.
joed|rttt wrote:
Hospitalizations just started to increase about a week ago (it takes about two weeks for cases to translate into hospitalizations). Don't draw conclusions from incomplete data.
Fauci also admitted on live TV that the hospitilization numbers are BS. If you show up with broken leg they test you for COVID and call it a "COVID hospitilization" even when you're asymptomatic and that's not why you went to the hospital.
Liberals are morons.. wrote:
joed|rttt wrote:
Hospitalizations just started to increase about a week ago (it takes about two weeks for cases to translate into hospitalizations). Don't draw conclusions from incomplete data.
Fauci also admitted on live TV that the hospitilization numbers are BS. If you show up with broken leg they test you for COVID and call it a "COVID hospitilization" even when you're asymptomatic and that's not why you went to the hospital.
He did.
Now if they would admit as much with the death totals.
Not to say that hundreds of thousands of elderly people in poor health did not die due to Covid. That is also on the CDC and Fauci. They offer no treatment suggestions. They still say if you test positive go home and isolate and wait until you are having trouble breathing before you go to hospital. I kid you not. Look it up. How many people could have been saved with early treatment?
troll_69 wrote:
AZDZ wrote:
Overall mortality rate right now is the same as 2005. So let's turn society upside-down and inside-out to save fat granny. From what we aren't sure because the testing is so fraudulent.
Where are you getting these figures from? Everywhere I've looked, deaths per 100,000 in 2020 exceeded 2005 figures. Just curious
CDC.
I agree completely! Hospitalizations are up because of all the "with COVID" vs "due to COVID" cases being counted. Plus all the ER congestion from panicked people rushing in to get a COVID test because they or their kids have cold symptoms. Used to be a kid would be coughing and sneezing all over the place and parents would send them to school, soccer practice, etc. Now if a kids clears their throat freaked out parents rush the kid to the ER for "presumed COVID". Geez people, sober up and move on with your lives. Omicron is a blessing not a curse. A highly transmissible, low severity COVID variant seems like a gift from GOD. Instead of jumping off the nearest cliff, just enjoy the view a moment, then turn around and march back into the normal fray of life and resume participation. If you wanna wear a mask, knock yourself out. If you want a 4th vaccine booster, make an appointment. If you are done with masks, have no interest in vaccines, then do that too. Regardless of your personal positions, EVERYONE who believes in the US Constitution and historical American values should be united in their opposition to any more mandates. Either pass a legal law / ordinance, or forget it. No more of these dictatorial decrees from govt or even unelected "experts". 2 years is long enough that everyone has staked out their personal position on COVID. Now elected bodies can do what their governing documents spell out, and stop with the emergency mandate nonsense. State of Emergency doesn't last forever, hell there is always something going wrong. Now the "experts" are admitting that cloth masks do next to NOTHING, after brow-beating people to wear them for the last 18 months. Instead now they want people to spend their $$$ on surgical masks or N95 masks, which also won't really get the job done for most people anyway. Why do people continue to BELIEVE the experts when they lie so frequently and easily to the public? I get the whole "science and knowledge evolves, but they knew the story on masks the whole time, that science and data already existed. What didn't exist, and is just now being slowly understood, is the devastating negative impact that lockdowns, masking, virtual-everything has had on society and kids in particular. We have an entire generation of kids who have been mentally crushed by power-hungry "experts" who wanted to centrally control the global population. This has all just been a big "experiment" to them, a real life chance to play out one of their war game scenarios on the global population. The thing is, they can't just hit RESET when their policies and dictates ruin the mental and economic health of the world. This time it is REAL and the outcomes last for decades. Fauci obviously doesn't care about any collateral damage to the population, his only interest is to PROVE that he can somehow single-handedly STOP the spread of the COVID virus. Just because that is actually impossible is not an impediment to him, simply another obstacle to be overcome. Destroying the US economy, the mental health of the population, and the entire future of the country, those are all acceptable losses, if in the end it is proven that the Great and Powerful Fauci was able to Stop the Virus. When that doesn't happen, that too won't be the fault of Fauci, but instead the fault of the stupid and selfish who resisted his edicts and used their own brains instead of drinking the Kool-aid for eternity.
There are many powerful people for who COVID-hysteria has become a money and power generating industry. COVID is real. It's a serious thing. I'm not denying its existence, importance, or need for treatment/prevention/vaccination.
But make no mistake about it, COVID-hysteria has become a lucrative industry some very powerful people have a vested interest in preserving.
My neighbor just died from it after being sick for 6 days. Overweight, unvaxxed, no prior illnesses. 55 years old.
joed|rttt wrote:
Hospitalizations just started to increase about a week ago (it takes about two weeks for cases to translate into hospitalizations). Don't draw conclusions from incomplete data.
You can pretty much see this in data on the UK site. Cases start to accellerate mid-December, hospitalizations start to kick up last week, death data hasn't really hit, but we should keep an eye out. The CFR always looks lowest at the initial start of the surge (ton of cases, but deaths not hitting the statistics right away). Hopefully it ends up being as mild as many on these boards are claiming, but the truth is we do not know that yet (and data from the holidays won't start hitting until coroners get back to work this week).
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/joed|rttt wrote:
joed|rttt wrote:
Hospitalizations just started to increase about a week ago (it takes about two weeks for cases to translate into hospitalizations). Don't draw conclusions from incomplete data.
You can pretty much see this in data on the UK site. Cases start to accellerate mid-December, hospitalizations start to kick up last week, death data hasn't really hit, but we should keep an eye out. The CFR always looks lowest at the initial start of the surge (ton of cases, but deaths not hitting the statistics right away). Hopefully it ends up being as mild as many on these boards are claiming, but the truth is we do not know that yet (and data from the holidays won't start hitting until coroners get back to work this week).
Hardloper wrote:
EpiRunner wrote:
First though, the definition of risk is the severity of an outcome multiplied by the likelihood of it occuring. The severity of omicron is almost certainly less than that of delta, but because it is more transmissible, you're more likely to get it.
Plz expand on the math. The probability I would eventually get exposed to the delta variant was essentially 100%. The transmissibility of the omicron variant just means it will happen sooner.
He's right that the basic risk calculation, at least from an insurance perspective, is frequency x severity. The other little things include the time frame being measured, and things like deductibles and out of pocket maximums.
To simplify with fake numbers, if your probability of catching Covid in 2022 prior to Omichron was 40% and the severity would have been a 7 out of 10 (or let's say you'd incur $20,000 in insurance costs), that's an expected outcome of 40% x 7 = 2.8 on our severity scale or 40% x $20,000 = $8,000 in insurance costs ignoring deductibles.
So now Omichron is more infectious so your probability of catching it in 2022 is say 75% but the severity is now 4 out of 10 or $5,000 in expected hospital costs. Now your expectation is 3.0 on the severity scale or $3,750 on the expected insurance cost scale.
So you can see that the numbers matter. An increase in frequency coupled with a decrease in severity doesn't tell you the change in risk necessarily. But this is the basic logic.
The OP title would be correct if it was the following:
Omicron: risk to vaccinated goes way down, but unvaccinated continue to fill up hospitals
Omicron is still a very dangerous virus, but its risks are evolving. If you are vaccinated and boosted, the risk for hospitalization is very low for most groups. In NY, unvaccinated are hospitalized at a rate of 30 per 100k. Vaxxed are at a rate of 2.1 per 100k. Omicron is hitting young children harder as the immune escape appears to be out maneuvering young children's innate immunity that had previously held up against Alpha and Delta.
If everyone had been vaxxed and boosted by this point, the surge of Omicron cases would have a much more limited and manageable impact on the health care system. But there are still large numbers of unvaxxed even in states where vax rates are very high and Omicron moves particularly fast among the unvaxxed as they are also very unlikely to follow other measures like masking and social distancing.
Liberals are morons.. wrote:
joed|rttt wrote:
Hospitalizations just started to increase about a week ago (it takes about two weeks for cases to translate into hospitalizations). Don't draw conclusions from incomplete data.
Fauci also admitted on live TV that the hospitilization numbers are BS. If you show up with broken leg they test you for COVID and call it a "COVID hospitilization" even when you're asymptomatic and that's not why you went to the hospital.
Blatantly false. This is something DanM has tried over and over again to say on this forum. Proven time and time again he was wrong.