Will Nico Young ever run a sub 13 5000m?

hchvv wrote:

Who is the youngest American to break 13?

Solinsky 25 years 8 months

Kennedy 25 years 11 months

Rupp 26 years 2 Months

Ritz 26 Years 9 Months

Kincaid 26 Years 11 Months

Teg 27 Years 8 Months

Chelimo 27 Years 10 Months

Lagat 30 Years 9 Months

Lomong 35 Years 1 Month

This is The FIRST TIME for each

Lagat ran under 13:00 6 Times in 6 Different Years

Solinsky 3 Times all in the same year

Kennedy 2 times in same year

Chelimo 2 Times in 2 Different Years

Rupp, Ritz, Teg, Kincaid and Lomong did it One Time

With the New Super Shoes it should happen a lot more frequently in the near future, Not sure how much faster the shoes will be, my guess is about 5 seconds, but I am sure Many on here know it far more accurately.

Fisher

Nico should be able to break 7:46 but he will smash 13:19 outdoors next spring. In fact I think he can scare 13:10 spring 2022. Breaking 13 is not a foregone conclusion but staying healthy, solid training, and racing international competition should help.

Grant Fisher will become the youngest American to break 13. So pumped for his development these last couple of years and his fifth place showing at the Olympics.

No. He might have 10 or 15 seconds faster in him.

But I hope he proves me wrong.

Strange that Rupp only broke 13 one time. He’s been so good for so long. He’s almost done more as a miler than a 5k runner and he has Olympic medals at 10k/marathon.

With wave light he could probably run 13:10 already

By that point the shoes they will be throwing out there will be taking 6-7 seconds off per mile compared to the 2.5-3 they do now. So yes he will do it....for that reason only.

xbcnxnc wrote:

Strange that Rupp only broke 13 one time. He’s been so good for so long. He’s almost done more as a miler than a 5k runner and he has Olympic medals at 10k/marathon.

True. Rupp had 3:50 speed and 26:44 strength. He should've been well under 12:55 for 5k. Would love to see a reporter ask him that question.

As for Nico, he's on the right trajectory to break 13. But do Lex and Leo beat him there??

I think he is only a 4 flat miler which will really limit his 5k. 10k will be better.

This spring, Nico Young ran 3:44 1500 at 18 and 13:24. This month at 19, he ran 13:22.

He will turn 20 next July 27, so he isn't eligible for under 20 records after the new year. But it is very likely he'll run 13:10-13:15. Ritz ran 12:56 with a 3:42 lifetime pr. He did the former only after Salazar started having him run 56s in workouts. Prior to that, he hadn't really tried to run fast repeats. But if you're looking to a higher ceiling in the 5000m, you'd have to take the guy who ran 3:31 just after his 20th birthday, coupled with 13:18 at 20, doubling back in the 5 at NCAAs, and 13:19 at 19.

blue man wrote:

I think he is only a 4 flat miler which will really limit his 5k. 10k will be better.

Let's circle back to this remark in 12 months.

How about answering the question that the thread asked instead?

Honestly I hope he does the 10 k in a fast meet this year Mt Sac? He might go 27:20 this year

michiganrunner55 wrote:

Honestly I hope he does the 10 k in a fast meet this year Mt Sac? He might go 27:20 this year

I think Mike Smith wants to have Nico run 1500s and 5000s for a while before transitioning into longer distances, so he can get stronger and build up speed endurance before taking on the 10000. He'll have plenty of opportunities to run it his junior and senior year.

blobfish wrote:

michiganrunner55 wrote:

Honestly I hope he does the 10 k in a fast meet this year Mt Sac? He might go 27:20 this year

I think Mike Smith wants to have Nico run 1500s and 5000s for a while before transitioning into longer distances, so he can get stronger and build up speed endurance before taking on the 10000. He'll have plenty of opportunities to run it his junior and senior year.

He could just start it now.

Nico to me is a lot like Chris Derrick in terms of speed and endurance. Because of the shoes he may break 13 where Derrick did not. But his long term future is at 10K and longer.

Just because someone runs a fast time at one age doesn't mean they're going to run a faster time later on. Far too many times we see someone young do something impressive and then they just fade away. Remember Eric Jenkins? Ran 13:07 or so at age 23 and I believe that's still his PR about 6 years later. There is no guarantee someone will get faster, especially when the person has been injury-free. He has run fast because everything has gone well for him so far. At some point something won't go his way and it will be tough to keep things going forward.

blobfish wrote:

With a 13:22 5000m at age 19, it seems the odds are in his favor to break 13 at some point in his career. He seems like a Ritz-level talent to me. Even if he isn't able to improve his kick to win national championships and yadda yadda yadda, I think he'll be able to improve his engine to time trial solid times in the 5000/10000. I'll put the odds of him breaking 13 at 60%.

Ed chesereck, Eric Jenkins, Chris Derrick, drew hunter were all going to be distance superheroes after college. There’s tons more to add to the list.

Speculation is worthless.

One thing that is true (proven by Alan Webb’s 3 pb’s within less than a month of each other) is that when you’re really fit and racing fast, you have to chase times because you might never get back to that point. I’m sure Jager regrets not going after sub 8:00