Jakob NCAA Quintuple Chances - If he tried the 800-10k, how many events would he win?

rhimby wrote:

SDSU Aztec wrote:

The Steeple is a tough event and there is no way he's going to run more races after that on the same night. At 1978 championship, Rono ran a 13:22 in a heat but didn't run the final after winning the Steeple.

Jakob could probably run a 7:55 steeple at least. The NCAA steeple is nowhere near as strong as the 5k or 1500, he could probably jog an 8:30 for the win. That would be nothing.

It would also be 15 minutes after a 1500 heat(?). There is long history of human beings running distance and not a single one has accomplished anything close to what some of you believe Ingebrigtsen could do.

Precisely 0%.

Jakob vs. NCAA wrote:

If Jakob Ingebrigtsen attempted the quintuple at NCAAs (800-1500-3000s-5000-10000) how many events would he win?

The hypothetical schedule (based on 2021 schedule)

Wednesday evening: 10K

Friday evening:

5:11pm- 1500m

5:24pm- 3000s

6:14pm- 800m

6:55pm- 5000m

If he doesn't have to run the prelims, I saw that he wins 4 titles (10k, 1500, 800, 5000m). With prelims, I think he maybe wins 3 (10k, 1500m, 5000m)

Discus

If he truly tries to win all of them I think he probably only wins the 10k and 1500 honestly. If he didn't run the steeple or 800 I would say 5000 is 50/50.

I think people here are undervaluing the NCAA which is rare for letsrun.

birdbeard wrote:

The dude that said Hocker would be right on him the whole way in the 1500 is insane. Hocker is nowhere near Jakob.

Hocker is capable of being pulled to a 3:31, or closing a 3:35 in 1:48/52 for the last 800/400. He’s not quite on Jakob’s level but there’s no way that beating him would be an easy stroll for anyone, and if Jakob waited till 2 laps to go then yes, Hocker would probably be on his tail to the finish.

I think Jakob would lose the 800 and 5000, the former due to fatigue and relative lack of 800 speed, the latter due to severe fatigue from the previous events.

birdbeard wrote:

The dude that said Hocker would be right on him the whole way in the 1500 is insane. Hocker is nowhere near Jakob.

Right? It's almost as though we saw this race somewhere very recently. I think it was over in Asia, maybe.

This is especially true since in the schedule, the 1500 final opens the big night. If the 1500 is last, a fresh Hocker at his best could put a scare in Jakob, though I still call Jakob favorite.

John Wesley Harding wrote:

birdbeard wrote:

The dude that said Hocker would be right on him the whole way in the 1500 is insane. Hocker is nowhere near Jakob.

Hocker is capable of being pulled to a 3:31, or closing a 3:35 in 1:48/52 for the last 800/400. He’s not quite on Jakob’s level but there’s no way that beating him would be an easy stroll for anyone, and if Jakob waited till 2 laps to go then yes, Hocker would probably be on his tail to the finish.

I think Jakob would lose the 800 and 5000, the former due to fatigue and relative lack of 800 speed, the latter due to severe fatigue from the previous events.

Yeah but hocker with his 3:31 is an outlier.

If we're talking about an average year, or even a weak year to make it easier for jakob, there is no way he isn't winning the 1500 + 3000st + 5000 + 10 000 if he isn't running the 800 (impossible for him, even fresh, so no point in wasting energy running it).

The best 5000m runners in the ncaa are so weak compared to the best 800 or 1500m ncaa runners. I don't know why some of you think they would be a big deal to jakob. He could jog a 13:12 and that's the ncaa record if I'm not mistaken.

In all races he just would have to sit at the back of the pack and kick in the last 100 like he used to do at every race when he was 16/17/18

SDSU Aztec wrote:

rhimby wrote:

Jakob could probably run a 7:55 steeple at least. The NCAA steeple is nowhere near as strong as the 5k or 1500, he could probably jog an 8:30 for the win. That would be nothing.

It would also be 15 minutes after a 1500 heat(?). There is long history of human beings running distance and not a single one has accomplished anything close to what some of you believe Ingebrigtsen could do.

How much energy do you think Jakob would waste in an NCAA 1500 heat? I'm sure Jakob's done harder workouts than a 3:45 1500, 15' rest, 8:30 steeple

No chance in hell A 12:48 5K Olympic champ does not take at least 3-4 in an NCAA meet. Sorry but he would not lose this 5K

Runner1218 wrote:

No chance in hell A 12:48 5K Olympic champ does not take at least 3-4 in an NCAA meet. Sorry but he would not lose this 5K

Except he is not a 12:48 guy after 3 races, he is mortal. Stop acting like the previous races would take absolutely nothing out of him and that he would pop into the next race ready to PR. They would hurt him just a bit until he went into the 5000m on wobbled legs. He would be very vulnerable, and if nothing else, his kick would be zapped.

Also durable at 16 in the Norwegian juniors is a lot different than in the NCAA.

-He could not “jog” a 13:12 5k within an hour and 45 minutes of racing a 1500, a steeple AND an 800, as is the case in the OP’s hypothetical.

-Even if we exclude Hocker as an outlier, he’d still have to beat someone who’s run 3:35x closing in 56x-52x (Nuguse), or if we look to previous years, a series of scrubs named Oliver Hoare, Josh Kerr, and Clayton-will-run-1:42-in-2-months-Murphy. I’m not saying he wouldn’t beat these guys 99 times out of 100, but he’d come away with some fatigue.

If he was racing all 5 events with no prelims, given the schedule in the OP, I would expect:

-Wins the 10k pretty easily, but it might take the edge off his ability to tackle four events inside of two hours two days later, especially if it’s a 27:40 race like this year

-Wins the 1500 in ~3:35 by controlling the race from the front, basically a 2:20 K with a 500m warmup

-NINE MINUTES LATER he starts the steeple, in which he hangs off the back of the lead pack looking tired but never loses contact, and is able to summon a kick for the win, we’ll say 8:27...leaves the track looking spent

-Forty minutes later he’s toeing the line for the 800, knowing he’s fatigued and has no chance at this distance but that he’ll be shot by the arbiters of this hypothetical if he doesn’t put forth an honest effort, so he does well to run 54-54 (1:48x) and maybe beat one guy who fades badly

-39 minutes after the 800 he starts the 5k - he manages low-13:20s (his 10k race pace under radically different circumstances) and is unable to respond to surges/big kicks to contend for the win

I think including the 800 is dumb. He'd be hard pressed to win it even if he was fresh. But I don't think the 10k, 5k, 3k steeple, 1500m quad is that far fetched.

I think people are overestimating the difficulty of the steeple, even if it's only ~15 mins after the 1500

with that schedule, he wins the 10k easily, then 1500 easily. I think he wins the steeple, but look at the schedule: he will have 8 minutes rest before racing again. even if he does win the steeple, he'll be totally gassed for the 800 and get blown away.

he has a very small chance at winning the 5k, if it's slow and turns into a kicker's race. if someone pushed hard from the beginning, I don't think he wins.

this is not a judgement on Jakob, it's the simple fact that there's only so much the body can do in an 1 hour and 40 mins.

Jakob vs. NCAA wrote:

If Jakob Ingebrigtsen attempted the quintuple at NCAAs (800-1500-3000s-5000-10000) how many events would he win?

The hypothetical schedule (based on 2021 schedule)

Wednesday evening: 10K

Friday evening:

5:11pm- 1500m

5:24pm- 3000s

6:14pm- 800m

6:55pm- 5000m

If he doesn't have to run the prelims, I saw that he wins 4 titles (10k, 1500, 800, 5000m). With prelims, I think he maybe wins 3 (10k, 1500m, 5000m)

Discus

Anybody else in the world with a better shot to pull this off than Jakob? The 800 is the Achilles heel for the world team. If Chep or Kiplimo or Barega ran in a post Hocker NCAA, they’d win 4/5 more easily than JI. They of course have no shot at the 800.

Jakob's 800m PR is soft though. If he's going all out for the 1500m WR in 2022, then he'll be doing speed work. Getting his 800m down under 1:45 will be part of it. All of those races in a couple days is tough though, even for the GOAT. Last year's NCAA final was 1:43 if memory serves. Not sure Jakob will ever be that quick.

Actually, seeing this schedule has me wondering… why does NCAA stick the 1500 and 800 finals on the same day, so close to each other. Why don’t meets separate the “close” events anymore? Even the Olympics has gone to a whacky schedule that prevents some doubles but preserves others. Jakob couldn’t do the 15-5 in Tokyo because the schedule was goofy.

Freezing................. wrote:

"Also durable at 16 in the Norwegian juniors is a lot different than in the NCAA. "

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Except is wasn´t the JUNIOR championshops in 2017 16 years old Jakob won 3 golds and 1 bronce, it was the SENIOR championships!

Jakob is a pretty special, rare talent. I agree he'd win all but the 800. Perhaps he might lose the 10,000 as well. I also think he could improve his 800 more than we think and threaten 1:43 at some point.