Show me the Money wrote:
What the high school track PRs of these kids that could beat the NCAA D3 team?
They actually should be able to beat many college teams at all levels...very few D3 teams get sub 9:00 3200 m kids as recruits and even many D1 programs rarely get sub 9:00 kids.
Yes 8k would be a stretch but this team is loaded with talent!
https://www.athletic.net/TrackAndField/School.aspx?SchoolID=1782tyhehdfdgs wrote:
my two pennies wrote:
It would be close. 14:41 at Woodward Park is about a 195.33 speed rating, so about 14:23 on the track. So that matches up pretty favorably to the D3 teams. The jump to 8k may affect them a bit, but I doubt it would do much. Their 5th man may be the weakness that would put them in 2nd, but I doubt they would finish any worse than that.
They would win D3, but we should stop acting like it's so amazing. It's 2 really fast families that moved to the town, plus a decent #5.
Ah I forgot because they’re related it’s actually not impressive when 16 year olds beat 20 year old former state and national champions
sub 14? really? wrote:
stats and analysis wrote:
There is 0 chance Woodward is only 18 seconds slower than a track. We did the analysis, people run 40+ ish seconds faster on the track.
Let’s peg it to 3k times —
German 8:34 / 14:24
Nico 14:28 / 7:56 3k
Newbury Park has 3 boys sub 14 right now, 1 sub 14:10, and 2 more sub 14:30.
So instead of all this speculation about their 'theoretical' 5000 PBs, why not use real ones. Everyone here assigns these flamboyant times that these kids have 'conceptually' run, but literally haven't. Then, worse yet, extrapolate these non-existent PRs to 8 or 10k. All this for kids who literally don't have verifiable times over standard distances (3000, 5000, 10000, etc.) and none of whom have ever even finished a race longer than 5k.
All this is to say that all the math and wild speculation means little when compared to other athletes (the leading D3 teams, for example, or even Mantz) whose performances, especially over longer distances, we are absolutely certain of given they were measured to the 1/100th of a second.
Maybe they're all pretty good, perhaps some will eventually be great, But assigning these 5000 times that they have never run as unofficial PRs, then extrapolating to even less official 8 or 10k PRs is a little too speculative for me to take seriously. The whole 'could break 29 for a track 10000 right now' type of thing that pops up every once in a while for high school runners is ridiculous and rebutted by the following:
Well, go ahead and do it.
There's a reason every teenager these days doesn't easily break the old (and in the case of 10000m, very old) US HS records. Everyone winning a State Meet isn't necessarily an all-time great. Are 4 of these guys beyond Rupp, or even Pre at the same age? I believe not - and I'd suggest none are close to the relatively recent Lukas V.
By the way, another, unrelated point:
These races are being run in Vaporflys. Let's see how that works out on a wet, muddy, slick course.
Because those real ones were run a year ago and it’s far more accurate to guess than to say they haven’t improved
Why do you all start these stupid threads? After Clovis Invite it was going around they’d make NCAA D1. Come on guys… it is probably the best HS performance ever. That last mile at Woodward will eat you up. They ran great. But they aren’t competing with the best teams in college at 10k… or even 8k. And that’s ok. These are kids. Stop the nonsense.
No, since I doubt the NP team has more than one or two runners with the grades or tests scores to be accepted into and elite D3 school, nor could they handle the academic work load. Make it a level playing field. More than just running goes into being successful at D3 xc.
sheltered wrote:
No, since I doubt the NP team has more than one or two runners with the grades or tests scores to be accepted into and elite D3 school, nor could they handle the academic work load. Make it a level playing field. More than just running goes into being successful at D3 xc.
…and 4 of top 6 are only HS juniors, so..,
But that is obviously not the point.
Nico ran 13:50 for 5000m in HS.
There is no reason to believe that the top 3 NP runners cannot run the same or faster.
#4 can come close to 14 and #5 is a low 14min runner.
Every year, we get excited when we see 4 or 5 runners from the same College team break 14 in the same race.
NP could do that.
They have no low posts so they unfortunately could not be competitive at the top level of D1.
None of the guys would break 14 now. One will do it in the spring when 6 months older. They would finish about 5th in D3 and about 100th in D1.
Imimpresssed wrote:
wpimorelikewtf wrote:
I guess there is something you don’t know—how to read. I said in op that the jump to 8k is what would get them, you jabroni idiot.
Yes you did! My fault, sloppy reading. We agree. Nice reply, I deserved it.
Nah, he's a dickweed.
freekiprop wrote:
sub 14? really? wrote:
So instead of all this speculation about their 'theoretical' 5000 PBs, why not use real ones. Everyone here assigns these flamboyant times that these kids have 'conceptually' run, but literally haven't. Then, worse yet, extrapolate these non-existent PRs to 8 or 10k. All this for kids who literally don't have verifiable times over standard distances (3000, 5000, 10000, etc.) and none of whom have ever even finished a race longer than 5k.
All this is to say that all the math and wild speculation means little when compared to other athletes (the leading D3 teams, for example, or even Mantz) whose performances, especially over longer distances, we are absolutely certain of given they were measured to the 1/100th of a second.
Maybe they're all pretty good, perhaps some will eventually be great, But assigning these 5000 times that they have never run as unofficial PRs, then extrapolating to even less official 8 or 10k PRs is a little too speculative for me to take seriously. The whole 'could break 29 for a track 10000 right now' type of thing that pops up every once in a while for high school runners is ridiculous and rebutted by the following:
Well, go ahead and do it.
There's a reason every teenager these days doesn't easily break the old (and in the case of 10000m, very old) US HS records. Everyone winning a State Meet isn't necessarily an all-time great. Are 4 of these guys beyond Rupp, or even Pre at the same age? I believe not - and I'd suggest none are close to the relatively recent Lukas V.
By the way, another, unrelated point:
These races are being run in Vaporflys. Let's see how that works out on a wet, muddy, slick course.
Because those real ones were run a year ago and it’s far more accurate to guess than to say they haven’t improved
So you're saying that last Fall they all ran a track 5000? Or is it more accurate to say that they don't have actual 5000 PRs that we can all agree on, given that they were run on a very reliable course, ie, a track? They certainly don't have 10000 PRs, which are more applicable to NCAA XC predictions.
Again, I ain't saying these guys are slow, just saying that they don't really have track PRs at any distance recognized by the NCAA (or USATF, or WA, or T&FN) and therefore useful for comparison against whatever collegiate runners' or teams' PRs. It's not that their times are a year old as much as they don't exist.
At any rate, perhaps one of them will go on to win D1 (or 2 or 3) XC. It's just comical to count what they're doing now as comparable.
freekiprop wrote:
tyhehdfdgs wrote:
They would win D3, but we should stop acting like it's so amazing. It's 2 really fast families that moved to the town, plus a decent #5.
Ah I forgot because they’re related it’s actually not impressive when 16 year olds beat 20 year old former state and national champions
How many (relevant) state and national champions run at D3 lol. Maybe you’ll get some divisional “state” champions from smaller states, but most think they’re hot sh*t and go D1 haha.
Working your comments in reverse, it's easy tp look at high school PRs of each college teams roster.
How many NCAA D3 teams have more than one sub 9:00 3200m runner?
How many D1 NCAA teams have more than five sub 9:00 3200m runners?
This team is really good!
Wartburg is the best team in D3 and they were ranked 1st all year while being undefeated. Not many would claim that NP could compete with them. They finished 9th at nationals. So NP would likley have been outside the top 10.
You don't know what you are talking about. More than 100 college teams have 5 sub 8:25 3k runners. If you are referring to their HS times, how is that relevant? That is like saying NP's HS team is worse than a JH team that has 5 sub 4:45 guys because NP only has 4 guys who ran sub 4:45 in JH.
Yes
I agree with you that NP is amazing, but comparing HS times for current college runners to NP runners isn't really that accurate. First, they are 3-4 years older now, and have gotten faster, but more importantly, many top D3 runners didn't bloom until after they got to college. It could be lack of focus, puberty, better coaching, more mileage, or what ever. The winner of the D3 champs this year ran a 9:40 in HS, yet he tied Parker Wolfe (last year's HS Gatorade runner of the year and an 8:40 3200) in a race earlier this year. So yes, people do get better. And also, MANY top HS runners are top because they train like college runners in HS (80-90 mpw) and when they get to college find out that they aren't improving like they thought they would. I could name a ton of former top 10 footlocker and NXN runners who didn't exactly kill it at nationals this year.
And FYI- just in the Nescac alone, both Williams and Middlebury landed sub 9:00 3200 guys and they weren't even close to their top runners on the team. I'm sure the other top D3 teams had sub 9:00 guys as well.
Ian Lamere ran 9:39 in HS. He became a mulit time NCAA champ in D3 and ran 28:38 winning the Stanford 10k beating the best D1 runners. Some of these dummies are trying to have us believe that the NP guys could beat the college Lemere because their high school times are faster than HS Lamere.
Engineer of Plates wrote:
Ian Lamere ran 9:39 in HS. He became a mulit time NCAA champ in D3 and ran 28:38 winning the Stanford 10k beating the best D1 runners. Some of these dummies are trying to have us believe that the NP guys could beat the college Lemere because their high school times are faster than HS Lamere.
Yep, and Tim Nelson only broke 10:00 once in high school and went on to run 13:57! My point is NP currently has four guys that broke 9:00 and their 5th ran 9:10. Those kids should be able to step into a D3 meet and be competitive even at 8k. Very few D3 teams get sub 9:10 talent as incoming recruits on a regular basis and to get five kids like that even at D1 would be a great incoming class.
Engineer of Plates wrote:
Wartburg is the best team in D3 and they were ranked 1st all year while being undefeated. Not many would claim that NP could compete with them. They finished 9th at nationals. So NP would likley have been outside the top 10.
I looked at Wartburg's all time list and it appears that NP is CURRENTLY deeper than the Wartburg all time list.
If Wartburg would have ran up to their ranking, would you have said NP would likely have been a top five?
https://go-knights.net/documents/2021/8/2/TF_Wartburg_Top_10.pdfLook this is an all-time great HS team. They are going to beat a lot of teams at every division. They are clearly training at a very high level and 2 mile/5k training isn't that different from 8k/10k training anyway.
So many of you are stuck on the they don't have any real 5k/10k times thing. Maybe look at it another way. How many college teams (at any level) would have beat them at the CA state meet? I'm guessing not that many and the number goes down as you move from D1 to D3. It's not a knock on college runners. These guys are just on another level.
No it wouldn't. But the point is that these guys are nowhere near as fast as college guys. What is it that some of you are trying to prove? We can look at the current track times for the NP guys and compare them to the current times of college runners. Their 5th runner would get lapped in an outdoor 5k by the 5th runner of a good D1 team. Their 5th runner would absolutely get lapped in an indoor 3k by the 5th runner of any team that qualified for nationals. Why are you so stuck on the Hs PRs of the college guys? The thread is comparing NP to the current teams. NP would only finish about 10th in D3. This thread actually tarnishes their reputation when people realize that they are slower than a bunch of guys who didn't go D1. And if the coaching is the key to NP's success, that means these guys are already at their college level. I don't believe that because I think they are more talented than other guys and the coach is doing a decent job but nothing different than other top coaches.