NCAA Predicted Men's Individual top 10 

Sliding Scale wrote:

SDSU Aztec wrote:

How does having run the course before give anyone an advantage?

Seriously?

Experience on a course can be a big advantage. Not saying that it can't be overcome, but being familiar with a course adds a level of comfort. You can formulate a more specific race plan and know what areas can be exploited. When you are familiar with a course you typically have a very good sense of where you are at in the race in terms of distance and be more calculated and precise with moves and surges and finishing kick.

Are you serious? It's the same conditions for everyone and in XC, the most fit and talented runner is likely to win. I don't know if the course is flat, but if not, everyone has experience racing up and down hills.

Kioko

Wildschutt

Young

Mantz

Kiptoo

Herrera

Teare

Nur

Kemboi

Bosley

rojo wrote:

There's a nice thread on who will be top 10 for the women. So let's start one for the men. Jonathan Gault predicts the top 3 for you in this preview.

https://www.letsrun.com/news/2021/11/2021-ncaa-xc-mens-individual-preview-will-conner-mantz-become-a-legend-or-will-wesley-kiptoo-earn-redemption/

1. Mantz 2. Kiptoo 3. Wildschutt

Alternatively, Bijan H. Mazaheri's algorithm has the top 10 as follows.

1 Wesley Kiptoo 13:18 (13:14 - 13:23) Iowa State JR

2 Adriaan Wildschutt 13:22 (13:17 - 13:28) Florida State JR

3 Conner Mantz 13:22 (13:15 - 13:30) BYU JR

4 Cooper Teare 13:23 (13:15 - 13:33) Oregon SR

5 Nico Young 13:24 (13:19 - 13:30) Northern Arizona FR

6 Abdihamid Nur 13:24 (13:19 - 13:30) Northern Arizona SO

7 Eduardo Herrera 13:24 (13:21 - 13:28) Colorado SR

8 Athanas Kioko 13:24 (13:17 - 13:33) Campbell SR

9 Isai Rodriguez 13:25 (13:15 - 13:36) Oklahoma State JR

10 Dylan Jacobs 13:27 (13:22 - 13:33) Notre Dame JR

You can learn more about the algorithm here:

https://www.lacctic.comhttps://www.letsrun.com/forum/flat_read.php?thread=10951959

Since Young is only 19, he is likely to benefit the most from being a year older. It certainly won't help Mantz.

1-3 dogfight between Mantz, Kiptoo, Wildschutt

4. Young

5. Hicks

6. Teare

7. Isai

8. Nur

9. Kioko

10. Herrera

Stop sleeping on Hicks he's legit

Flavian wrote:

Stop sleeping on Hicks he's legit

Is Hicks a citizen of the United States or the UK?

this is how it goes wrote:

Flavian wrote:

Stop sleeping on Hicks he's legit

Is Hicks a citizen of the United States or the UK?

Both but competes for UK I believe.

Hicks is overrated as hell. Doesn’t place top 10

not a duck wrote:

Hicks is overrated as hell. Doesn’t place top 10

I think he'll be in the 5-10 range. He was 14th last year.

rhimby wrote:

not a duck wrote:

Hicks is overrated as hell. Doesn’t place top 10

I think he'll be in the 5-10 range. He was 14th last year.

Why is a guy who ran 27:47 at 19 years old and has performed consistently well this XC season “overrated as hell”? He looks like a future 10,000m Olympian to me.

I have him #10 but top 5 would not surprise and he could be the winner in a couple years.

He’s overrated because of everyone who says “don’t sleep on Hicks” when he’s placing well in races. No one is sleeping on him he’s just not winning, save for PAC 12.

I’m not saying he’s bad, but I don’t think he runs top 10

I'm slotting James Mwaura somewhere in the bottom half of the top ten.

not a duck wrote:

He’s overrated because of everyone who says “don’t sleep on Hicks” when he’s placing well in races. No one is sleeping on him he’s just not winning, save for PAC 12.

I’m not saying he’s bad, but I don’t think he runs top 10

Saying he won't be top 10 is literally sleeping on him....

I haven't seen anyone say he's going to win but I don't see why anyone would doubt him being top 10 at least. Watch the Pac-12's race, absolute gapped Teare in a matter of seconds.

No it’s not. Sleeping on someone is an athlete who wins every race and doesn’t get talked about much at all. Hicks is not winning every race yet whenever his name is mentioned it’s “don’t sleep on hicks”

In no order Mantz Kiptoo Wildschutt Young Rodriguez Kioko Kiprop Kipsang Clinger Teare could all beat Hicks. That’s just off the top of my head. He could get top 10, he could not. I would bet not

not a duck wrote:

No it’s not. Sleeping on someone is an athlete who wins every race and doesn’t get talked about much at all. Hicks is not winning every race yet whenever his name is mentioned it’s “don’t sleep on hicks”

In no order Mantz Kiptoo Wildschutt Young Rodriguez Kioko Kiprop Kipsang Clinger Teare could all beat Hicks. That’s just off the top of my head. He could get top 10, he could not. I would bet not

Your idea of the phrase I used isn't the way I use it. I can't say don't sleep on Hicks because he doesn't win EVERY race? Lol.

In my opinion people were undervaluing Hicks in their predictions and that's why I said "don't sleep on Hicks". He doesn't have to win NCAA's or every race to be slept on. I don't have to follow your ridiculous idea of the phrase.

SDSU Aztec wrote:

Are you serious? It's the same conditions for everyone and in XC, the most fit and talented runner is likely to win. I don't know if the course is flat, but if not, everyone has experience racing up and down hills.

Seriously makes me wonder if you have ever been in a foot race.

Dion Marquise Hayes top ten.

It's criminal that only one post has mentioned Drew Bosley so far. Conference champ. Has gotten much better each race. Was NAU's top man as a freshman back in 2019.

BidenFixedCovid wrote:

SDSU Aztec wrote:

Are you serious? It's the same conditions for everyone and in XC, the most fit and talented runner is likely to win. I don't know if the course is flat, but if not, everyone has experience racing up and down hills.

Seriously makes me wonder if you have ever been in a foot race.

Yes, I have, and the best runners win. If Hicks is running with Mantz and Mantz throws in a hard surge, how is homefield advantage going to help him? Is there a home track advantage as well?

ebvehjbgbrbtnt wrote:

It's criminal that only one post has mentioned Drew Bosley so far. Conference champ. Has gotten much better each race. Was NAU's top man as a freshman back in 2019.

“Criminal” 🙄