Possibility of going sub 2:50 in Chicago?

Good luck. Can't gain much fitness now. But recovery is important.

I'm also running Chicago and coming into it overtrained (finished last week at 92 and started missing workout paces). After a few days of rest I'm starting to feel better- yesterday was 15 x 500" @ 90" pace/45" rest + 40min @ 6:27. None of that has anything to do with marathon pace as I'm targeting <2:35 however it is good to be feeling good again.

As other said get some super shoes. Bring some gels for nutrition (I'd maybe max out at 2 gels if it's your first time) can be hard on your stomach. I wouldn't experiment with too many runs now bc you shouldn't really be doing long runs leading up that would put you in the same state.

Get a massage or something. That may also help the body recover.

And good luck. Find a pace group to run with and stick with them. Let them break the wind (if any).

This is super helpful! Thank you! I know I kind of screwed up with the variety, and I am definitely going to change that for my next marathon buildup (kind of kicking myself now haha). I honestly just didn’t really know what I was doing and was not planning on taking this marathon seriously at all. I just love to run so that’s why I ran relatively high mileage but didn’t think of race shoes, fueling, or workouts since the original plan was just to run it for fun. I like the half split of 1:25-1:27, so that’s what I’ll shoot for!

This is also really helpful and gives me hope that I’ll start feeling better after a few days rest, too. This is also another dumb question (I don’t know much about marathons obviously), but if I were taking gels, how often do people do that throughout the race? Thank you so much for the advice! Also, good luck in Chicago! Hope the runs continue to feel better until then!

i say do the first half in 1:25 on the dot. that should feel easy for you based on the long runs you've done. especially if you're rockin' the super shoes. then maintain the pace til mile 20 or so and if you still feel good push down the throttle a little bit.

it seems like gel-frequency recommendations change often and are pretty highly individual. the last marathon i ran i tried to roughly follow a one-every-45-minutes schedule. the problem is that they start to be gross by the 3rd or 4th one. it's not great that you haven't used them on your long runs. some people need to baby their stomachs - hopefully you're not one of them. personally my stomach can handle the gels it's just getting them down that's the problem. also i disagree with poster who said gatorade is harder on the stomach. gatorade is my saving grace in the second half. goes down easy and tastes good. definitely hit up the gatorade stations in the second half at the very least. realistically you'll be lucky to get down half of what they give you in the cup unless you walk through the station.

I keep saying it, but I really can’t tell you all how much I appreciate all the advice! It’s all so helpful. Yeah, I really should have practiced with the fueling on long runs, but I’ll definitely see how it feels on some shorter runs over the next week or so. Thank you!

I ran sub 2:50 a while ago and I couldn't have done your 20 mile training runs unless they were in warm up races. You should be well capable of sub 2:50 if you pace it right, even pace or slight negative splits is the way to go. You should think about doubles BTW, easy gain for you there.

Ronnie Pudding wrote:

I ran sub 2:50 a while ago and I couldn't have done your 20 mile training runs unless they were in warm up races. You should be well capable of sub 2:50 if you pace it right, even pace or slight negative splits is the way to go. You should think about doubles BTW, easy gain for you there.

Thank you so much! Seriously, that is so nice to hear. I'll definitely add doubles for my next marathon training cycle.

All of this...I take my gels at 7, 14 and 21 and had no bonking issues either for my first (2019 Cbus). The key also is to drink the water and gatorade like he said here. Also try to use a handheld when running!

If you pace well and assuming adequate weather, hydration and fueling, I'd be somewhat surprised if you don't end up in the 2:45-2:50 range.

What stands out to me the most, in addition to your weekly mileage are those last 10-15 miles of long runs in 6:20-6:30. With a good taper this range should feel pretty comfortable for you. That should definitely be your goal pace IMO.

I love threads like this, because your training is a bit unorthodox and it's fun to see different approaches runners take. I wish you the best and hope you update this thread when it's all over.

A couple things on this. Unfortunately we don't have any workouts or race simulation stuff to look at to get information here but assuming that you're in sub 2:50 shape.

Pre Chicago:

Unfortunately you haven't given yourself much time to practice taking gels ahead of this. For your next time out, start implementing a fueling strategy during your long runs so you have that all locked down pre race day. Pick out a couple different types of gels/flavors you may think you enjoy. Test it first by having it about 45 minutes prior to your easy run. Basically do this to see how it responds with your stomach as it's settled. Better to have stomach issues during an easy run than a long run. If you found something you like try it out on your long run this weekend. Nothing you do less than 2 weeks out is going to make you any faster for race day.

Chicago fueling strategy suggestion:

I'm personally a fan of taking it every 5 miles or 30 minutes. You want to be replenishing those burned calories. It may feel all fine at 10 or 13 but when you get to 20 and you need those energy reserves, you're going to be in big trouble. Utilize the drink stations too, it ends up making the gels easier to take down.

Racing Strategy Suggestion:

Aim for a negative split. My typical strategy for these races are 10-10-10K. First three miles of the marathon are warming up and staying conservative, then settling into a comfortable pace. At 10 start moving down the pace to something that feels comfortable, then 10K leave everything out there. Use checkpoints for yourself to adjust race strategy if necessary. You're better off having a down mile early than blowing up and letting the race become a death march. At Columbus I negative split by going out in 75:42 and coming in with a 2:30:25. If the goal is to break 2:50, heading out just about a minute slower may be a good move (1:25:30 or 1:26:00). If it feels tough there, just hold on to that pace, if you feel good, enjoy blowing by people that thought "banking time" was going to pay off.

Good luck to you out there.

I believe you’re definitely in sub 2:50 shape. I don’t know why people are questioning it so much. If you did 21 miles at 6:29 pace in the middle of months of 90-100 miles a week without fueling and without the super shoes, I would be extremely surprised if you weren’t closer to 2:45 with a proper taper. If you’re currently feeling tired, take it really easy for a couple days and add some strides (nothing longer than 200 meters), and I’d bet after three days you’ll have the spring back in your step. It takes the body awhile to absorb all that running you did for the last couple months. You worked hard! Good luck, and let us know!

I just wanted to clarify by taking it really easy for a couple days, I mean that you shouldn’t have any sub 7:30 regular runs anymore. Make them as easy as possible and then add strides. You’re not going to gain fitness. You’re just trying to recover and flush the legs out a bit. Even if you feel really good, save it for race day.

colder and wiser wrote:

Ernest wrote:

Without a correlating tune up/indicator race, sub 2:50 is in doubt.

If you pace for 2:50, you may find yourself having a miserable second half.

If <2:50 might be indicated, a more prudent approach would be to split half in 1:28 or so - if you're legit, should be able to enjoy a negative split and easy sub-3

Check the math. Telling someone who's done 20+ miles at 6:30-40/mile pace to split 1:28 for her first half is terrible advice. She'd have to run her 2nd half in 1:22, or speed up nearly 30 seconds/mile.

She's put in the work to be in much better than 2:50 shape. A first half in 1:25 is already conservative pacing.

Go for it, OP.

Advice to split 1:28 or so is not intended to produce a <=2:50 outcome.

OP has never run remotely close to 2:50 or shared any past race result with equivalence. The only thing pointing to <2:50 fitness is a claim of 20+ long runs at 6:30-6:40.

Workouts and training runs are not reliable indicators.

For better certainty on target pacing, training should have included a lead-up 10K or Half Marathon.

Pacing for 2:50 when it's not there could take a sub-3 off the table.

washeduprunnerguy wrote:

I believe you’re definitely in sub 2:50 shape. I don’t know why people are questioning it so much. If you did 21 miles at 6:29 pace in the middle of months of 90-100 miles a week without fueling and without the super shoes, I would be extremely surprised if you weren’t closer to 2:45 with a proper taper. If you’re currently feeling tired, take it really easy for a couple days and add some strides (nothing longer than 200 meters), and I’d bet after three days you’ll have the spring back in your step. It takes the body awhile to absorb all that running you did for the last couple months. You worked hard! Good luck, and let us know!

Again, reading through what we know, it seems that OP does a lot (almost all) of their running around 6:30 pace, without much running a lot faster than that or much slower than that. That's a lot of time in the grey. Generally, somebody knocking out long runs at 6:30 pace has done a ton of threshold type workouts in the 5:40-6:00 pace range. They also probably have a lot of long tempos in the bank at 6:05-6:15. OP is crushing it. The mileage and long runs look fantastic. I'm just a little concerned that there isn't a ton of room for improvement past what they've been training at in this one race since they haven't been training to run faster than 6:30ish. Seems like a big risk to start running a lot faster than what you've been hitting in training.

I think the person who negative split to a 2:30 has the right idea. Open in 1:25-mid to anywhere in the 1:26 range. Pick people off. Fuel intentionally. 2:49 isn't off the table. But it might be if you open in 1:22. Then get serious & do the training for an OTQ for your next one.

I agree with this. I should have done more workouts in that range and will certainly be doing that next time. And I also agree with starting with a 1:25-1:26 half. I think I would definitely be more comfortable that way. Thanks!

Ernest wrote:

colder and wiser wrote:

Check the math. Telling someone who's done 20+ miles at 6:30-40/mile pace to split 1:28 for her first half is terrible advice. She'd have to run her 2nd half in 1:22, or speed up nearly 30 seconds/mile.

She's put in the work to be in much better than 2:50 shape. A first half in 1:25 is already conservative pacing.

Go for it, OP.

Advice to split 1:28 or so is not intended to produce a <=2:50 outcome.

OP has never run remotely close to 2:50 or shared any past race result with equivalence. The only thing pointing to <2:50 fitness is a claim of 20+ long runs at 6:30-6:40.

Workouts and training runs are not reliable indicators.

For better certainty on target pacing, training should have included a lead-up 10K or Half Marathon.

Pacing for 2:50 when it's not there could take a sub-3 off the table.

I ran sub 17 in a 5k right before I started this training block (back in May). I’m not sure what that converts to, but I think it might be slightly better than 2:50… but also maybe I’ve gotten slower since then idk. None of the longs I have done have felt like I was pushing too hard. I’m not trying to argue that I’m faster than sub-3. I was just curious, and I obviously completely respect your opinion and appreciate the advice! I do realize that an extra 4-5 miles could easily add 20+ seconds on to an average pace.

Webber Grill wrote:

If you pace well and assuming adequate weather, hydration and fueling, I'd be somewhat surprised if you don't end up in the 2:45-2:50 range.

What stands out to me the most, in addition to your weekly mileage are those last 10-15 miles of long runs in 6:20-6:30. With a good taper this range should feel pretty comfortable for you. That should definitely be your goal pace IMO.

I love threads like this, because your training is a bit unorthodox and it's fun to see different approaches runners take. I wish you the best and hope you update this thread when it's all over.

Thank you so much! I will definitely update this thread after the marathon is over.

I understand what you’re saying. From experience, however, I don’t think everyone needs to do a ton of faster stuff to be able to run faster in a race than in training. I remember one summer in particular when I just did base mileage (maybe 70 miles a week) no faster than 7:10 or so pace and ran a 10k at the end of the summer at a pace that was almost 2 minutes faster. You see this all the time with high school kids. There are kids who just run 9 min pace all summer and come in and run 18-19 min 5ks (I coach hs). And they do like 1/5 of the mileage of the OP. There’s something about race day and tapering that can make those paces seem much easier. We also don’t know how difficult those 6:30 pace runs were… I’m curious to see. Hopefully the OP updates us next week!

A 5K result is not ideal to establish or predict marathon fitness.

But sub-17 before a high mileage block is significant.

Long run strategy is curious, Six or so 20+mile marathon-pace runs were done. Most would log incrementally- longer runs, with only one or a few more than 20 miles - and not at MP. Are you coached or following plan?

Anyway, the 5K result combined with the long runs, does make <=2:50 seem less like misplaced optimism.

As others suggested, you could take 1:24-1:25 and plan for an even/negative split. This is not just about optimizing effort - mentally, it's a big boost to be picking off runners in the last few miles and this translates to real time gain - you dig more to reel in and gap others vs. running solo in the stretch.

Also, my subjective experience is women generally have comparatively worse speed and better speed endurance.

Many women I've known running under 2:50 would have a hard time running sub-17 - with the reverse is true for some men trained for long distance, making the prior sub-17 more significant.