Possibility of going sub 2:50 in Chicago?

I would think sub 2:45 is a realistic goal to shoot for. Did you do any speed workouts or races that you could give us times for?

My marathon PR is 2:39, and I didn’t put in anywhere near the mileage/quality long runs that you did. But I think you might need more sub 6 pace work to get there.

Also, yes, I have always felt bad during the taper/end of a marathon training block. Just really back off the last week and let your body recover. I think all of that work is just finally catching up to you. Luckily, at this point, you can’t really gain fitness so rest/recovery is the most important thing.

Good luck!

My last race was my last marathon, so I don't have any times. I don't do workouts. I try to emphasize quality long runs. I'll definitely change that when I race my next marathon. I wasn't planning on taking this marathon seriously. I just love to run, so that is why my mileage is relatively high. If I feel good on a run, I pick it up, and I do strides a couple times a week. Also, that is good to hear about the taper!

I have one last question which I realize is rather dumb. I never practiced with fueling. Is it horrible if I don't fuel during my marathon? I never felt like I needed it on my long runs.

This is probably another dumb question, but is it worth it to buy actual racing shoes? Is there a significant difference? Which ones would you recommend?

Obviously, I'm not super prepared. But thank you for the response!

Assuming you are not a troll

1) You will bonk if you do not fuel and hydrate regularly. Everyone is different but a Clif blok every 20 mins or a gel every 30 is the usual regimen. Chicago has excellent water and Gatorade stations so you probably could make it through without carrying gels. I find gels a lot easier on my stomach than Gatorade though.

2. Racing flats and/ or supershoes make a huge difference. I would try to get some ASAP to get a few runs in before the race.

The Nike Vaporfly Next percent is the go to road racing shoe. They are hard to find though so good luck. Most other brands also have carbon plate racing shoes.

A marathon block is just weeks of accumulated fatigue, almost everyone feels a constant tiredness going into the taper. If you taper properly, you'll feel fresh again.

Get some racing shoes if you can, honestly, the difference compared to regular trainers is ridiculous. Vaporfly are the priority, if you can't get them then either the Alphafly or ASICS metaspeed sky are great. All other carbon racers can be hit or miss.

Good luck!

High hopes wrote:

A marathon block is just weeks of accumulated fatigue, almost everyone feels a constant tiredness going into the taper. If you taper properly, you'll feel fresh again.

Get some racing shoes if you can, honestly, the difference compared to regular trainers is ridiculous. Vaporfly are the priority, if you can't get them then either the Alphafly or ASICS metaspeed sky are great. All other carbon racers can be hit or miss.

Good luck!

Second all of this. You definitely need to fuel. Get a nice taper in and don't worry about your run paces within 2 weeks of the race. It's natural to feel pretty fatigued at that point. I didn't race in supershoes for my last marathon and greatly regret it. Most studies will put it at work up to 2-3 minutes at the pace you're looking to go. Just buy and make sure they work for you on a run (e.g. find the right socks, make sure it's sized correctly, get used to the high stack).

Thank you so much everyone for the advice so far! I'll definitely try to get the shoes before race day. I honestly just didn't know if fueling was super important because I never felt like I needed it on long runs.

Also, I can't tell you how much I appreciate the taper advice! It was causing a lot of stress haha

If I get the shoes and practice fueling, do you think sub 2:50 is realistic?

Without a correlating tune up/indicator race, sub 2:50 is in doubt.

If you pace for 2:50, you may find yourself having a miserable second half.

If <2:50 might be indicated, a more prudent approach would be to split half in 1:28 or so - if you're legit, should be able to enjoy a negative split and easy sub-3

Good post; go out at 1:30 pace or so for the half (6:52) and see how you feel at Mile 20. Mile 20 is the halfway point in the marathon metaphorically.

6 twenty milers averaging 6:30 to 6:40? That’s crazy. I’d say you are a lock for sub 2:50. My only concern would be that perhaps you overstrained andor the calf plays some role in slowing you down. Best of luck.

Meant to say overtrained, not overstrained. But I guess they are similar…

Maybe I am overthinking it, but if I had overtrained, is there anything I can do about it now? I didn't know if it was overtraining or just regular marathon training fatigue that was making runs slower lately.

Ernest wrote:

Without a correlating tune up/indicator race, sub 2:50 is in doubt.

If you pace for 2:50, you may find yourself having a miserable second half.

If <2:50 might be indicated, a more prudent approach would be to split half in 1:28 or so - if you're legit, should be able to enjoy a negative split and easy sub-3

If I had done 21 miles at 6:29 pace at the end of 100 mile week, would the extra 5 miles really make my race pace closer to 6:50+? I'm honestly curious because it has been so long since I ran a marathon. I appreciate the advice!

Chicago2021 wrote:

Maybe I am overthinking it, but if I had overtrained, is there anything I can do about it now? I didn't know if it was overtraining or just regular marathon training fatigue that was making runs slower lately.

It’s totally possible it’s just normal fatigue. Keep it very relaxed in the taper and go in fresh. Keep confident and don’t overthink it.

Chicago2021 wrote:

Ernest wrote:

Without a correlating tune up/indicator race, sub 2:50 is in doubt.

If you pace for 2:50, you may find yourself having a miserable second half.

If <2:50 might be indicated, a more prudent approach would be to split half in 1:28 or so - if you're legit, should be able to enjoy a negative split and easy sub-3

If I had done 21 miles at 6:29 pace at the end of 100 mile week, would the extra 5 miles really make my race pace closer to 6:50+? I'm honestly curious because it has been so long since I ran a marathon. I appreciate the advice!

I take training claims with a grain of salt - if we are honest, many training routes are not accurately-known distances. Or did we pause our watch at a stop light or bathroom break?

If you have a GPS track showing 21 miles @ 6:29 without stopping, you might rely on that as a positive indicator.

The magic of race day is worth something, but 21 miles isn't 26. The last 10K can be a zombie-shuffle for the overly-optimistic.

Dropping from almost 3:30 to 2:50 is an aggressive expectation. Without a recent 10k or Half, it's guess work where you're really at.

My 4 cents - err on the side of caution. Shoot for a higher time, perhaps surprise yourself - or risk a painful meltdown or DNF.

It's a lot more satisfying passing other runners in the last few miles than to be the one being passed... again... and again... and again...

Will say this, though - you put in more mileage and better long runs than when I dropped to 2:50.

Definitely. Don't go any faster for the first half. Maybe you will have more left in the tank for negative split. You sound like you're in pretty good shape.

Girl you got this! The fitness is clearly there. All that stands in the way of you and your goal is hanging in there when Chicago gets mentally tough at mile 18ish.

Yours truly,

Female, was 21 for my OTQ at Chicago off of injury and slow summer miles (much slower than the ones you are putting in)

Ernest wrote:

Without a correlating tune up/indicator race, sub 2:50 is in doubt.

If you pace for 2:50, you may find yourself having a miserable second half.

If <2:50 might be indicated, a more prudent approach would be to split half in 1:28 or so - if you're legit, should be able to enjoy a negative split and easy sub-3

Check the math. Telling someone who's done 20+ miles at 6:30-40/mile pace to split 1:28 for her first half is terrible advice. She'd have to run her 2nd half in 1:22, or speed up nearly 30 seconds/mile.

She's put in the work to be in much better than 2:50 shape. A first half in 1:25 is already conservative pacing.

Go for it, OP.

I never stop during long runs and choose routes that don’t have stop lights. I also used a gps watch and mapped it to make sure the distance was accurate. When I ran the 3:27, I was running maybe 30 mpw at 9 or 10 minute pace. I do realize that it’s a huge jump, though. Maybe I am being a little too optimistic. Thank you for the response! I will definitely consider being more conservative in the first half.

To the last three posters, thank you so much for the super kind responses! It sounds silly, but they actually gave me a lot of confidence and made me excited for Chicago when I had been getting rather nervous. I appreciate it more than you know!