An Estimation of Jakob's Current Fitness at Various Distances

if jakob had been around in the 90s he wouldnt have beaten el gerrouj,or some other top runners of the day.as another poster pointed out,on a 90s track,and in regular spikes hes in about 3.31 shape.he does have good closing speed though.hes no slouch.

5,000 12:35.35

10,000 26:10.99

13.1 57:31

26.2 1:59:59

jeff tallon wrote:

if jakob had been around in the 90s he wouldnt have beaten el gerrouj,or some other top runners of the day.as another poster pointed out,on a 90s track,and in regular spikes hes in about 3.31 shape.he does have good closing speed though.hes no slouch.

Agreed. He's like Cram was in that he can maintain good speed over last 400m, but I don't think he yet has the best turn of speed in a slower 1500m.

Essentially the WRs from 1500m to 3,000m are the best on the books with one exception, the new 400m hurdles record (whether this is another super spike phenomenon I'm not sure, Warholm only uses Puma)

SlowFox wrote:

5,000 12:35.35

10,000 26:10.99

13.1 57:31

26.2 1:59:59

1500m 3:27.7

Mile 3:44.8

3,000m 7:24.8

5,000m 12:44

10,000m 27:10

Half 59:50

Is it possible to run 50 and 1:45

Wouldn't you need 49.5 speed at least and even that's pushing it.

I'll say 49.1

1:45.5

3:27.9

7:26

26:55

59:50.

400 49.5

800 144.6

1500 3:27.1

3000 7:23.2

5000 12:45.7

10000 26:49

jeff tallon wrote:

if jakob had been around in the 90s he wouldnt have beaten el gerrouj,or some other top runners of the day.as another poster pointed out,on a 90s track,and in regular spikes hes in about 3.31 shape.he does have good closing speed though.hes no slouch.

Although if he was put on the same PEDs those guys were on at the time he would still be 3:27 or faster. It was a wild wild doping era indeed.

49.1 - probably on his best day could just crack 49 in a couple years

1:45.2 - likely can go down to 1:44s in a few years, just not now

3:27.8 - ran pretty easily in Tokyo after rounds, yes good pacing but imagine a DL race

7:24 - as pointed out earlier, Kejelcha n Katir both ran 7:26-7 with fast last k's; with pacing 7:24

12:43 - with great pacing, but this is the upper limit of his sweetspot

26:50 - would comfortably dip under 27, not sure if sub 26:45 is possible

59:25 - idk

Seppo Kaitenenn wrote:

400 50

800 1:45

1,500 3:27.5

3,000 7:26

5,000 12:46

10,000 26:50

13.1 59:20

26.2 DNF

I laughed pretty hard at DNF

jabouko wrote:

49.1 - probably on his best day could just crack 49 in a couple years

1:45.2 - likely can go down to 1:44s in a few years, just not now

3:27.8 - ran pretty easily in Tokyo after rounds, yes good pacing but imagine a DL race

7:24 - as pointed out earlier, Kejelcha n Katir both ran 7:26-7 with fast last k's; with pacing 7:24

12:43 - with great pacing, but this is the upper limit of his sweetspot

26:50 - would comfortably dip under 27, not sure if sub 26:45 is possible

59:25 - idk

So jabouko’s and my joint range of estimates (with averages) are:

48.8-49.1 (48.95)

1:44.8-1:45.2 (1:45.0)

3:27.5-3:27.8 (3:27.65)

7:22.5-7:24 (7:23.25)

12:43 (12:43)

26:44-26:50 (26:47)

59:20-59:25 (59:22.5)

paris2024hawk wrote:

7:26

I predict you’ll be surprised the next time he runs a fast, concerted 3k.

Jakob is 20. El G, Morceli, Cram, Coe, Ovett, Walker were all 23-24 at their 1500/mile fastest. If you consider the advances those six made from age 20 to 24 and apply it to Jakob, he could run 3:23, 3:40, 7;16, 12:25

Kobbs Hessler wrote:

Jakob is 20. El G, Morceli, Cram, Coe, Ovett, Walker were all 23-24 at their 1500/mile fastest. If you consider the advances those six made from age 20 to 24 and apply it to Jakob, he could run 3:23, 3:40, 7;16, 12:25

Except Jakob has been training like a pro from about 11 years old and has less room for improvement. He has even said himself he's not sure how long he can keep going for and talked about retiring at 22.

People also comparing Cram to Jakob and I can see why to some extent as Cram liked to wind it up from a long way out. However cram ran 1:42 for 800 and could run 50s last laps in a slow 1500. He was much more speed based than Jakob and didn't ever run a decent 3 or 5k.

I'm surprised how slow people think his 400 and 800 would be. I think he could run at least faster than Centros 800 PR 144.62.

Gjert has said his high-end speed is not that great. You don’t need to be a burner in the 400/800 to be an excellent 1500/5000 runner.

I was a 3:45 1500m runner and had 47.9 400m speed Jakob is at least a 47 400m guy.

What could you run a 5,000 in? If you’re saying every 3:45 guy can break 48 you’re wrong.

S K wrote:

"400 50

800 1:45

1,500 3:27.5

3,000 7:26

5,000 12:46

10,000 26:50

13.1 59:20

26.2 DNF"

------------------

400m 48:5 faster than most posters think

800m 1:44.5 at least as fast as Centro and Engels

1500m 3.27.3 at least 1 second faster than PB if he goes for time with good pacemaking, weather and track

5000m 12:45 at least. Next year: 12:40

10000m 26:35 people are underestimating his aerobic capacity. 12:45x2 +1= 26:30! Of course faster than Rupp.

HM 57:30 see under 10000m

--------------------

He will start to break WRs at latest next year:

1500m/ 1 mile

2000m

3000m

2 miles

5000m

The shortest first.

-----------------

He will be the clear favorite in all races from 1500m to 5000m in the coming years (unless Cheptegei finds his 2020 WRs shape what I don´t think he will.)

3000m 7:24.0