who do you guys think will win NXN this year? early predictions thread

Izaiah Steury will also be a contender.

I’ve also read somewhere on these forums that he won’t be eligible to run HS track his senior year because he is 18 already as a junior.

Aidan Cox from New Hampshire will be up there too. 191.87 speed rating as a sophomore

I wonder how much the loss of Coach Soles and Noble will affect Great Oak’s chances of qualifying for NXN

All The Way West Coast wrote:

covid dude wrote:

Won't be held this year either. Covid is real and West Coast restrictions will remain in place. Mask up!

California is back open in full on June 15th . Even that brain dead governor knows he has to do it.

Nike will have NXN because they know if they don’t there are other companies that will jump in and host a HS Cross Country Championship and maybe for good. No matter what a National Championship will happen. Masks off a baby we are back!

Not going to happen. You haven't factored in the surge this summer from letting down restrictions. The wave that will hit us late fall and of course the variants. CDC just said herd immunity is not likely. Mask up!

FastTuohy wrote:

trundzer wrote:

For girls, Saratoga Springs will win the team title.

Charlotte Bednar will win the individual title, unless Jenna Hutchins chooses to do NXN by some chance.

If I am Hutchins and running well I would like a shot at the Balboa Park record. Added bonus of most likely much nicer weather.

Hutchins is not strong enough and with her marathon shuffle she is not a very good hill runner. She will not be able to touch that FL record. However, if she ran Nike and if it did not rain like the day before NXN 2019, she could get that record. Nike is not a difficult course, the weather conditions make it difficult.

7empest wrote:

FastTuohy wrote:

If I am Hutchins and running well I would like a shot at the Balboa Park record. Added bonus of most likely much nicer weather.

Hutchins is not strong enough and with her marathon shuffle she is not a very good hill runner. She will not be able to touch that FL record. However, if she ran Nike and if it did not rain like the day before NXN 2019, she could get that record. Nike is not a difficult course, the weather conditions make it difficult.

I'm not so sure abut that - she ran 17:43 (9th) in 2018 and 17:16 (5th) in 2019 on that course. Going by speed ratings, I can see her easily in the 16:40s if she is running well (~170 speed rating).

Shorter stride is more efficient for hills. Longer stride is better for grooving on track or flat course.

Let's hope... wrote:

Let's hope there is an NXN this year. Nike has yet to announce that it's being held.

To put some of the details on the table...

At least two regional races are potentially problematic (New York, New England) due to state regulations. Throw California in as well.

And, you know, Oregon is probably a bit of a dice roll for an event like NXN right now, too.

That would lead me to believe Nike won't commit to anything until these issues are resolved, but these issues aren't going to resolve soon.

Does Nike try to slam everything together in September? I kind of think not.

It thinks it's at least 50-50, and probably better odds than that, that NXN doesn't happen this year.

Looks like a lot of people might be heading to Texas and Florida again late this year.

Sorry, Northeast, not New England...

Here are the boys teams that I think will autoqualify for NXN if NXN happens

Northwest - Jesuit/Lincoln

Heartland - Wayzata/Sioux City North

California - Newbury Park/Great Oak

Midwest - Columbus North/Brebeuf Jesuit Prep

Southeast - Pace Academy/Marietta

Northeast - Ridge/North Allegheny

South - Grapevine/Southlake Carroll

Southwest - Cheyenne Mountain/Mountain Vista

New York - Burnt Hills/FM

On both the boys and the girls teams side, it would be a race for second place next year.

alien wrote:

I think one of Nico Young's brothers places top 3

If that does happen and Sahlman wins, it would be like the Wilmot/Anderson duo at NXN 2013.

Jwilliams.18 wrote:

I agree with Newbury Park winning the title, but I think some of you underestimate the rest of the field when it comes to individuals. There will likely be 15+ underclassmen breaking 9 this track season in the United States. And historically, milers don’t win NXN. I could be wrong, but I personally think of Sahlman as more of a miler type. Guys like Gavin Sherry, Larry Josh Edwards, Sam Rich, Aidan Puffer, and Riley Hough have done more in the 5k to put their name up there. I’m not saying it’s impossible for Sahlman to win it, but I don’t think that he’s the clear-cut favorite.

What gives Colin Sahlman an advantage over others is that he has many solid teammates like his brother, Lex/Leo Young, and Appleford to train with.

Gavin Sherry has Callum Sherry to train with, but he did Footlocker in 2019 so I doubt he would be doing NXN.

Predictions wrote:

Here are the boys teams that I think will autoqualify for NXN if NXN happens

Northwest - Jesuit/Lincoln

Heartland - Wayzata/Sioux City North

California - Newbury Park/Great Oak

Midwest - Columbus North/Brebeuf Jesuit Prep

Southeast - Pace Academy/Marietta

Northeast - Ridge/North Allegheny

South - Grapevine/Southlake Carroll

Southwest - Cheyenne Mountain/Mountain Vista

New York - Burnt Hills/FM

Actually, I will change my pick that Grapevine and the Woodlands will autoqualify from the South.

The Woodlands is returning their #1 and #2, while Southlake graduates their entire varsity except for their #6 and #7. Grapevine won the 5A state meet and is also returning everyone except for their #5. The Woodlands also returns a better group of top 5 3200 times than Southlake Carroll. SLC does return 4 guys under 16, but the times at the Southlake Carroll invitational were unusually fast. Must have been a fast course.

From the Southwest, Farmington (UT) will be another candidate to qualify. Whichever team gets 3rd from that region will get an at-large because that region is very strong.

Jesuits definitely going, watch out for them they are definitely going to place top 3, but I don’t know where you pulled Lincoln out of their graduating their only national class guy this year and then have one 8:35 3k guy another guy barely under 9 and then i have no idea. No way they make it. I would say someone like Camas or the school Isaac Teeples goes to will make it, or some dark horse from Wyoming or Idaho. What’s more interesting is that the west is so stacked this year that we could potentially have very quality fields at both NXN and Footlocker, a rare occursnce with the messed up regional dates.

Lincoln is only losing 1 senior from their top 7, and they return 2 sub-15:30, 5 sub-16:30 5k guys. They return 7 guys under 16:45. They’re looking to be the second fastest team in Oregon.

I’m pretty iffy about Kamiakin right now. I don’t think they’re as deep as they used to be. Yes They qualified in 2017-2019 and do have strong 1-2 in Teeples and Wilcott. But Other than that they return a bunch of incoming sophomores whose 5k PRs are in the high 17s (except for one who ran a 17:24).

A lot of people take big jumps from freshman to sophomore year so maybe those guys have some room for improvement and maybe some of them will step up next year and help the team get back to Portland.

I will also change the NY boys pick to autoqualify for NXN from Burnt Hills/FM to Burnt Hills/Corning.

The cupboard for FM is bare now. Corning returns 5 guys under 17 for 5K, and 5 guys under 10:15 (3 under 9:45) for 3200. FM returns almost no one under 17 minutes for 5k.

Anyone following closely enough along that wants to make girls’ team predictions?

Here are the girls teams that I think will autoqualify for NXN if NXN happens:

Northwest - Boise State/Summit

Heartland - Minnetonka/Edina

California - Great Oak/Buchanan

Midwest - Carmel / York

Southeast - Weddington/Cuthbertson

Northeast - Ridgewood / Middletown South

South - Flower Mound / Southlake Carroll

Southwest - Cherry Creek / Arapahoe

New York - Saratoga Springs / FM

Northeast is not a strong region on the girls side, so some random team might qualify for NXN from that region.