Cole Hocker and Cooper Teare Going Pro?

Track and Field baby wrote:

Give me da deets wrote:

I have a connection at Nike that said, off the record of course, that Nike will extend pro offers to Cooper and Cole to sign right after NCAA outdoors (but before the Olympic trials). Nike is trying to lock them in but still allow them to run the outdoor NCAA season so that Univ of Nike (I mean, U of Oregon) can win their national title as a team.

Any thoughts or predictions? I can't see Cole or Cooper going to any brand other than Nike.

It sounds like they genuinely aren't sure yet about whether they will go pro or not based on this interview. Either that or they are really good at keeping it under the radar.

https://youtu.be/-rZNbxobodY

Based on how open they sound to going pro in this interview I bet they'll take a deal. The second one or two guys on the Oregon team take a deal then all of them will jump ship.

you do realise that paul chelimo exists right

Ranking medal contenders by percentage chance (albeit an arbitrary number based only on my opinion)

1. Donovan Brazier 95% medal chance (really would be 100% but can't rule out injuries or other unforseen circumstances)

2. Galen Rupp 25% marathon

3. Cole Hocker 5% medal in the 1500m (

4. Cooper Teare 3% medal in the 1500m

5. All of America in the 5000m including Chelimo - 3% (not a single American currently ranked in the top 8)

6. Giles 3% in the 800m

7. All of America in the 3k steeple 3%

8. Clayton Murphy in either the 1500 or 800m about 2%

9. Engels in the 1500m 2%

10. All of America in the 10,000m 0.1%

I don’t think Giles is American

Teare List wrote:

Ranking medal contenders by percentage chance (albeit an arbitrary number based only on my opinion)

1. Donovan Brazier 95% medal chance (really would be 100% but can't rule out injuries or other unforseen circumstances)

2. Galen Rupp 25% marathon

3. Cole Hocker 5% medal in the 1500m (

4. Cooper Teare 3% medal in the 1500m

5. All of America in the 5000m including Chelimo - 3% (not a single American currently ranked in the top 8)

6. Giles 3% in the 800m

7. All of America in the 3k steeple 3%

8. Clayton Murphy in either the 1500 or 800m about 2%

9. Engels in the 1500m 2%

10. All of America in the 10,000m 0.1%

Lolol at the list. Giles isn’t even American.

Why US in the steeple 3% when Jager is healthy and has medaled before?

Teare and Hocker have run 3:50 and both can close well but Hocker's closed in sub 26 in a 3:53/7:46, so even better as a contender. But you can't just say 3:50 is nowhere close. First, that's equivalent of a 3:33. Second, that was indoor. Third, they're young and getting better. If they're in 3:31 shape by the Olympics, why not a medal? We know that funny things have happened and many guys at that level have gotten medals in the 2000s. Manzano, Centro, F. Ingebrigtsen, ...

But the money would be on gold for Timothy Cheruiyot, silver for Jakob Ingebrigtsen, and then bronze up for grabs, maybe Makhloufi if still eligible and competing.

Teare List wrote:

Ranking medal contenders by percentage chance (albeit an arbitrary number based only on my opinion)

1. Donovan Brazier 95% medal chance (really would be 100% but can't rule out injuries or other unforseen circumstances)

2. Galen Rupp 25% marathon

3. Cole Hocker 5% medal in the 1500m (

4. Cooper Teare 3% medal in the 1500m

5. All of America in the 5000m including Chelimo - 3% (not a single American currently ranked in the top 8)

6. Giles 3% in the 800m

7. All of America in the 3k steeple 3%

8. Clayton Murphy in either the 1500 or 800m about 2%

9. Engels in the 1500m 2%

10. All of America in the 10,000m 0.1%

Um, what? Some pretty hefty falsehoods in the list.

Brazier is the only American with a high probability of medalling. Rupp -- no. No one has medalled in consecutive Olympics in 20 years. Hoppel is a possibility if everything breaks right. Houlihan, Coburn, Wilson, Rogers on the women's side. No to the college guys. After running Pac 12s, NCAAs, Olympic Trials, Olympics (if they make the team) they will be fried. Neither Hocker nor Teare has any experience against top international competition. They don't possess the innate tactical genius that Centro has and their PRs and kicks aren't better than the world's best.

Les wrote:

Rupp -- no. No one has medalled in consecutive Olympics in 20 years.

very ironic.....very very ironic.

young man wrote:

Les wrote:

Rupp -- no. No one has medalled in consecutive Olympics in 20 years.

very ironic.....very very ironic.

... in the marathon.

Teare List wrote:

Ranking medal contenders by percentage chance (albeit an arbitrary number based only on my opinion)

1. Donovan Brazier 95% medal chance (really would be 100% but can't rule out injuries or other unforseen circumstances)

2. Galen Rupp 25% marathon

3. Cole Hocker 5% medal in the 1500m (

4. Cooper Teare 3% medal in the 1500m

5. All of America in the 5000m including Chelimo - 3% (not a single American currently ranked in the top 8)

6. Giles 3% in the 800m

7. All of America in the 3k steeple 3%

8. Clayton Murphy in either the 1500 or 800m about 2%

9. Engels in the 1500m 2%

10. All of America in the 10,000m 0.1%

With the exception of the Giles comment I think this list is pretty much spot on. I would add Hoppel to the list. Obviously the women have much better odds but the 5k and 10k are too competitive for America right now. And the 15/8 seem to be more open.

Les wrote:

young man wrote:

very ironic.....very very ironic.

... in the marathon.

OK, I kind of thought you we're saying that but wasn't sure....

Seems like the Ethiopian trials might mess things up for them. Kenyans will have a very strong team. Rupp has incredible leg speed though. If Galen can hang past mile 20 I think there's a very good chance he medals. However this is the marathon, there could be some complete dark horse who wins the whole thing. It's just how it goes.

xczvzxcv wrote:

Why US in the steeple 3% when Jager is healthy and has medaled before?

.

I think the assumption that jager is 100% is a bit questionable and it has been a long time since we have seen him in the steeple. He is also getting old.

It is easy to get excited by Hocker but there were like 15 guys who ran sub 332 over the past 2 years. That's a lot of better people. Hocker and teare need drop another 2s to be serious contenders. That's a lot of time.

Give me da deets wrote:

I have a connection at Nike that said, off the record of course, that Nike will extend pro offers to Cooper and Cole to sign right after NCAA outdoors (but before the Olympic trials). Nike is trying to lock them in but still allow them to run the outdoor NCAA season so that Univ of Nike (I mean, U of Oregon) can win their national title as a team.

Any thoughts or predictions? I can't see Cole or Cooper going to any brand other than Nike.

LRC Note: This topic was discussed on last's week's Track Talk podcast. Video below:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QpoTrAZI2Mw

If they already spoke to Nike, they are no longer eligible to run at NCAAs. That's a violation.

The main reason I don’t think the Nike offer is true is the school - Oregon. They have just begun to extract the titles with Hocker and Teare. I would bet Oregon is doing everything to dissuade the two from thinking about going pro.

Teare and Hocker should go pro and stop getting exploited by the NCAA. They don't need to change their training base or coaching. Then they can also be running influencers and make a little bit of money off social media because I bet they'd love to do that. Thought I would address that first because that's the question posed in the thread title, but the discussion of American distance medal chances is just as interesting to weigh in on. From highest to lowest chance in groups here's what I think:

Brazier

Hoppel

Jager

Chelimo

Lomong

Hillary Bor

Rupp

Centro

Murphy

(none of these next two groups in any order)

Fisher

McGorty

True

Emmanuel Bor

Kebenei

Hocker

Blankenship

Kincaid

Klecker

Mead

Gregorek

Engels

Teare

Thompson

Harris

I think USA's best chances to ball out are in the 800m and steeple (will defending champ Kipruto be in jail?). We had three guys in both finals in Doha! 1500m will be really tough, as you have Cheruiyot, Ingebrigtsen, and then a few Brits who tbh I think are better than whoever the best American miler is right now. Also I think Hocker is in a different league than Teare for medal chances. We learned at NCAAs that he has great closing speed over multiple rounds. Disirregardlessly, I don't think the two's medal chances are any better than a lot of these other guys I listed who are much less talked about (and I probably missed a few in those last two groups). Guys like Justyn Knight and Kieran Tuntivate might have higher medal chances than a lot of these Americans purely by virtue of having an easier path to the start line in Tokyo.

I will never understand why people don't understand why to take the check now.

When you're hot.

When you're actually worth something.

Even in the perfect world situation where Hocker *MAYBE* goes from 3:50 to 3:49 ... his value in contract dollars barely goes up. To the articles point, it's an olympic year. T&F only gets that once every 4 years. The world is only watching Track once every 4 years.

Easiest f***ing decision of his life.

Les wrote:

young man wrote:

very ironic.....very very ironic.

... in the marathon.

By that logic I highly doubt the reigning marathon champ has any change for a medal

I agree with whoever said Hoppel is a nice threat for a medal. I would actually give him the 2nd best shot at a medal on the men's side 800 & up after Brazier. I think 95% for Brazier is too high though, even though he is the runaway favorite. The 800m is a fickle event. Unless you are as good as Rudisha in 2012 and you can just run away from everybody from the gun, there is too much time for things to go wrong tactically and not enough time to fix the mistakes. Here's how I have the tiers:

1. Brazier (800) ~80%

(gap)

2. Hoppel (800) ~30%

3. Jager (3000SC) ~25%

(gap)

4. Rupp ('thon) ~15%

5. Bor (3000SC)~10%

(gap)

6. Lomong (10,000) ~5%

6. Hocker (1500) ~5%

6. Centro (1500) ~5%

(gap)

9. Murphy (800/1500) ~1%

10. Fisher (5000) ~1%

i wouldn't give anybody any chance at all