I agree also. Silly not to hold guys back to run to win the real race for 2nd individual and team title. If I am there as an individual, different story. I predict Kiptoo will be 10 seconds ahead at 3k. I wonder how they will cover the race. Will we only see Kiptoo?
Hillist wrote:
tuccone wrote:
I agree that he will win. I ran the course today and it is absolutely the hardest collegiate course I’ve ever seen.
That's completely insane. It's an honest course with several hills, but it is in no way at all the hardest collegiate course. You must have not been to a lot of courses - that's the only way this makes sense.
Also - Mantz lost on the 8k version in September - which is easier, but not incredibly so
What collegiate course have you seen that is harder than this? Because I’ve spoken to a lot of others and the general consensus is that this course is the hardest any of us have seen.
tuccone wrote:
Hillist wrote:
That's completely insane. It's an honest course with several hills, but it is in no way at all the hardest collegiate course. You must have not been to a lot of courses - that's the only way this makes sense.
Also - Mantz lost on the 8k version in September - which is easier, but not incredibly so
What collegiate course have you seen that is harder than this? Because I’ve spoken to a lot of others and the general consensus is that this course is the hardest any of us have seen.
Lol try Van Cortlandt’s 8k in the Bronx of New York. Easily one of the toughest, if not the toughest, collegiate courses in the US
This course has some really big hills. Van Cortland has some steep hills but the difficulty is due to the tightness and footing. Course today has perfect footing and is wider than any other course. The look of the course lulls runners into going too hard.
tuccone wrote:
What collegiate course have you seen that is harder than this? Because I’ve spoken to a lot of others and the general consensus is that this course is the hardest any of us have seen.
Alfred NY
Richer than most wrote:
I agree also. Silly not to hold guys back to run to win the real race for 2nd individual and team title. If I am there as an individual, different story. I predict Kiptoo will be 10 seconds ahead at 3k. I wonder how they will cover the race. Will we only see Kiptoo?
Do you have an example where someone capable of winning the race let someone go because he was on a good team? In XC, there's no bunting anyone to second base. The top runners help the team by placing as high as possible.
I've been following NCAA XC for a long time and remember a lot more individual winners than winning teams.
SDSU Aztec wrote:
Do you have an example where someone capable of winning the race let someone go because he was on a good team? In XC, there's no bunting anyone to second base. The top runners help the team by placing as high as possible.
I've been following NCAA XC for a long time and remember a lot more individual winners than winning teams.
There are guys who have talked about being conservative early to help the team, but I doubt it really affects the results. If someone wants to go out in 4:20, you can let them go and odds are at 9k, you will be close enough. And there is zero chance that there will not be a big pack that goes out fast enough to win the race.
SDSU Aztec wrote:
Richer than most wrote:
I agree also. Silly not to hold guys back to run to win the real race for 2nd individual and team title. If I am there as an individual, different story. I predict Kiptoo will be 10 seconds ahead at 3k. I wonder how they will cover the race. Will we only see Kiptoo?
Do you have an example where someone capable of winning the race let someone go because he was on a good team? In XC, there's no bunting anyone to second base. The top runners help the team by placing as high as possible.
I've been following NCAA XC for a long time and remember a lot more individual winners than winning teams.
People seem to mention it as a strategy a lot, but I’m not sure how much it actually affects results.
ienjoyracing wrote:
SDSU Aztec wrote:
Why would Mantz have an advantage?
Someone correct me if I’m wrong, but I’ve always understood it like this - Mantz I think is considered to have the slowest pure leg speed. This means he gets the bulk of his talent from his aerobic capabilities. He’s using more energy to go the pace, but he has more energy to use. The other fast guys like Luis Grijalva conversely get their capabilities from not needing to expend as much energy to go that pace, but their lungs don’t necessarily supply as much energy as mantz’s do. Obviously we are thinking in big bulk terms here, and obviously each runner has both high aerobic AND speed capabilities.
In an XC race with terrible conditions, the wind, mud and the hills change the mechanics of running enough so that the speed gifts that some runners rely on, are no longer in play. Speed talent is a mechanics thing where the body just knows how to do the motion better. So when the mechanics change so drastically, those fast runners are going to be expending the same energy as the slower runners that have big engines. Since the fast runner’s speed can’t save energy to offset their small engine, they do poorly. When slow runners go from a track 5k to an XC 5k, they do better, and when they go from XC 5k to muddy, windy, hilly XC 5k, they get even better.
You're saying that slow-twitch guys have an advantage on hilly courses but I've never observed that. Here in the Sacramento area, the Mastalir twins dominated on hilly courses, flat ones and on the track. They took about 20 seconds off of an impressive CR on an extremely hilly course, that had been set by a slower-twitch, 8:53 runner.
LR posters really like to refer to "engines".
Bonkers wrote:
If Kiptoo goes out super hard, I could see the BYU and NAU guys deciding not to risk the team title by chasing a crazy pace. Could make for a fascinating race dynamic.
This will happen, but not for the reasons listed. From interviews it seems that hammering from the front is all this man knows- 5:3X through 2k with no strategic consideration is a reasonable prediction. I’m rooting for the indoor glove-wearing maniac
byuwho?? wrote:
If it’s soggy and hilly, and a 10k as opposed to 8k, I think this race is Mantz’s for the taking. I can’t see him not winning this.
Of course, given the drainage system, it may not end up being that wet. I know the course is described as hilly, but is it actually hilly? Or just hilly for an NCAA champs course (which are usually pancake flat?)
Good pick OP
tuccone wrote:
Hillist wrote:
That's completely insane. It's an honest course with several hills, but it is in no way at all the hardest collegiate course. You must have not been to a lot of courses - that's the only way this makes sense.
Also - Mantz lost on the 8k version in September - which is easier, but not incredibly so
What collegiate course have you seen that is harder than this? Because I’ve spoken to a lot of others and the general consensus is that this course is the hardest any of us have seen.
1998 NCAA course at Kansas - the old course at OSU was considerably harder as well
Gotta say though, I ran in the OSU Invite in the fall and Grijalva looked unbeatable - Mantz is as tough as they say.
This aged well
The old Indiana University course was harder, CR 30:06 or so by Kimani in '99. Kennedy ran 30:15 and Scrutton 30:12.
tuccone wrote:
SDSU Aztec wrote:
Why would Mantz have an advantage?
Because he’s got really big balls.
This haha
Let it Rupp wrote:
Is this a thing? Connor Mantz likes 'em wet?
Confirmed. Mantz likes it moist.
Confirmed. Mantz is a freaking beast.
westsouthrunner wrote:
tuccone wrote:
Because he’s got really big balls.
This haha
He literally got some big balls and he wanted to make sure everyone knew it
Hey Tuccone,
Could you share your thoughts on SUU's performance?
Kind regards,
Tom Marvolo Riddle
tuccone wrote:
Hillist wrote:
That's completely insane. It's an honest course with several hills, but it is in no way at all the hardest collegiate course. You must have not been to a lot of courses - that's the only way this makes sense.
Also - Mantz lost on the 8k version in September - which is easier, but not incredibly so
What collegiate course have you seen that is harder than this? Because I’ve spoken to a lot of others and the general consensus is that this course is the hardest any of us have seen.
Rim Rock in Kansas is harder, and it's not mowed like a putting green.