If the NCAA XC course is as tough as they say, won’t Conner Mantz win?

I'd say more hilly for an NCAA cross course. Gault's article (

https://www.letsrun.com/news/2021/03/it-will-be-a-bloodbath-are-you-ready-for-the-hardest-ncaa-xc-course-in-recent-memory/

) includes a link to a 2019 regional XC participant posting it on Strava

https://www.strava.com/activities/2867088573/overview

I agree that he will win. I ran the course today and it is absolutely the hardest collegiate course I’ve ever seen.

Why would Mantz have an advantage?

It is hilly but does not get muddy. It is like astroturf.

SDSU Aztec wrote:

Why would Mantz have an advantage?

Because he’s got really big balls.

tuccone wrote:

SDSU Aztec wrote:

Why would Mantz have an advantage?

Because he’s got really big balls.

I thought Walmsley was supposed to kick a** on the hilly course in Atlanta.

In HS, we had two really hilly XC courses and several pancake flat ones, and the same guys always finished out in front.

tuccone wrote:

SDSU Aztec wrote:

Why would Mantz have an advantage?

Because he’s got really big balls.

^basically, yes. He seems like he’s comfortable redlining early on in a race and pushing through. I mean I know he got out-kicked by Grijalva here in the fall, so I guess it’s not a guaranteed win. I’d say if it’s sloppy at all it plays into his strengths more

byuwho?? wrote:

tuccone wrote:

Because he’s got really big balls.

^basically, yes. He seems like he’s comfortable redlining early on in a race and pushing through. I mean I know he got out-kicked by Grijalva here in the fall, so I guess it’s not a guaranteed win. I’d say if it’s sloppy at all it plays into his strengths more

He just needs to bring everyone into the Mantz pain chamber.

SDSU Aztec wrote:

tuccone wrote:

Because he’s got really big balls.

I thought Walmsley was supposed to kick a** on the hilly course in Atlanta.

In HS, we had two really hilly XC courses and several pancake flat ones, and the same guys always finished out in front.

That’s also a goof point. The best runners tend to finish first regardless of the course. If it was pancake flat, Mantz would still be a strong contender. But at the elite levels, when everyone is really really good, I feel like some smaller factors might come into play.

I know Kiptoo is also a favorite, and he could blow everyone out of the water for all I know. But he did run that 13:23 5k on Friday and I think it’s possible he goes out too fast and gets reeled back in.

Seems like it would favor Kiptoo, if he were fresh.

pnop wrote:

Seems like it would favor Kiptoo, if he were fresh.

Yes but he isn’t.

SDSU Aztec wrote:

Why would Mantz have an advantage?

Someone correct me if I’m wrong, but I’ve always understood it like this - Mantz I think is considered to have the slowest pure leg speed. This means he gets the bulk of his talent from his aerobic capabilities. He’s using more energy to go the pace, but he has more energy to use. The other fast guys like Luis Grijalva conversely get their capabilities from not needing to expend as much energy to go that pace, but their lungs don’t necessarily supply as much energy as mantz’s do. Obviously we are thinking in big bulk terms here, and obviously each runner has both high aerobic AND speed capabilities.

In an XC race with terrible conditions, the wind, mud and the hills change the mechanics of running enough so that the speed gifts that some runners rely on, are no longer in play. Speed talent is a mechanics thing where the body just knows how to do the motion better. So when the mechanics change so drastically, those fast runners are going to be expending the same energy as the slower runners that have big engines. Since the fast runner’s speed can’t save energy to offset their small engine, they do poorly. When slow runners go from a track 5k to an XC 5k, they do better, and when they go from XC 5k to muddy, windy, hilly XC 5k, they get even better.

Likely the same guys are out front, the only difference with a "tough" course is that the time differences tend to be larger.

tuccone wrote:

I agree that he will win. I ran the course today and it is absolutely the hardest collegiate course I’ve ever seen.

That's completely insane. It's an honest course with several hills, but it is in no way at all the hardest collegiate course. You must have not been to a lot of courses - that's the only way this makes sense.

Also - Mantz lost on the 8k version in September - which is easier, but not incredibly so

If Kiptoo goes out super hard, I could see the BYU and NAU guys deciding not to risk the team title by chasing a crazy pace. Could make for a fascinating race dynamic.

Hillist wrote:

tuccone wrote:

I agree that he will win. I ran the course today and it is absolutely the hardest collegiate course I’ve ever seen.

That's completely insane. It's an honest course with several hills, but it is in no way at all the hardest collegiate course. You must have not been to a lot of courses - that's the only way this makes sense.

Also - Mantz lost on the 8k version in September - which is easier, but not incredibly so

Longer and tougher favors Mantz, no (and Kiptoo)?

I always thought similarly. I would add relying on elasticity. Mud takes that away and therefore narrows the gap. Perhaps the influence of cold ala kawauchi in Boston. Being stouter retaining more heat, usually a disadvantage, becomes an advantage. Plus fighting the wind better with mass. All that said, i think the affects of conditions are unpredictable for a given runner. You just find out at the finish.

byuwho?? wrote:

If it’s soggy and hilly, and a 10k as opposed to 8k, I think this race is Mantz’s for the taking. I can’t see him not winning this.

Of course, given the drainage system, it may not end up being that wet. I know the course is described as hilly, but is it actually hilly? Or just hilly for an NCAA champs course (which are usually pancake flat?)

Absolute beatdown of a course over 10k. When I ran for Weis back in the early 90’s , we had cattle grates to cross and hay bales to jump. Of course, we loved it as Europeans; and it was a good introduction to real cross country for our blue nose American teammates. I believe that Falcon was the only person to dip under 30:00 there over 10k for years.

Bonkers wrote:

If Kiptoo goes out super hard, I could see the BYU and NAU guys deciding not to risk the team title by chasing a crazy pace. Could make for a fascinating race dynamic.

This ^^

Might be in Kiptoo's best interest to push the pace and scare the other top team runners