Grant Fisher will have American 5000m record by end of year

rojo wrote:

Look 13:02 is great for him and his last 400 was fantastic, but the way I see it the odds of him not breaking 13:00 this year are greater than him breaking the American record.

what your talking about.

system error cannot compute

What you aren’t considering is I don’t think fisher pushed that hard? He sat in5th for 90% of the race and the wasn’t really pushed the last 2 laps. If he had some competition in that race he would have easily been 12:55-12:58. Grant hasn’t ever been in a race that really pushed him to the redline. Both races you stated Rojo, those guys had a race set up to push to their limits. Grant has never even come close to that.

John Wesley Harding wrote:

JBaller33 wrote:

You weren't right either, big time. Fact is, everybody got it wrong.

My predictions:

1. Marc Scott 13:00

2. Grant Fisher 13:02

3. Sean McGorty 13:04

Jballer33 predictions:

1. Oliver Hoare 13:18

2. Grant Fisher

3. Woody Kincaid

Reality:

1. Grant Fisher 13:02

2. Marc Scott 13:05

3. Sean McGorty 13:06

...

7. Oliver Hoare 13:22

Woody Kincaid DNF (pacer)

The jury finds JBaller incompetent. This is a man's game, c'mon son! Hoare in 13:08? After Fischer rolled 27:11?????

That's about as whack as Ok7272 proposing that Hunter is in the mix to go to Tokyo in the 1500. WTF?

1500MeterLoser wrote:

What you aren’t considering is I don’t think fisher pushed that hard? He sat in5th for 90% of the race and the wasn’t really pushed the last 2 laps. If he had some competition in that race he would have easily been 12:55-12:58. Grant hasn’t ever been in a race that really pushed him to the redline. Both races you stated Rojo, those guys had a race set up to push to their limits. Grant has never even come close to that.

Seeing as how this is Grant’s first win in awhile, he most certainly has been in races pushing him to the redline.

The Canadian 5000m record is faster than the US 5000m record.

It would be fitting that a Canadian brings the US record back to being faster than the Canadian record

I'd say he approached it in the 10k last week but most of Grants losses have been tactical races that he gets outkicked on (see the entire Mcdonald v. Fisher saga). I always thought that he was doing himself a disservice waiting for the kick ftw, in an faster paced 5k I think he would've beaten Morgan pretty handily.

You don't seem to understand distance running. The fact that he did ZERO of the work is what enabled him to run 13:02. Please get back to me when Cheptegei gets rabbited for 4600 meters.

Look at the 1500. There are a ton of guys that can get in a 3:40 race and kick and run 3:37. But when they get in 'better' shape and need to hit the standard and go out and try to run 334, they blow up and run 339.

To get on a perfectly rabbited negative split race for all but the last lap is a dream come true. If Emmanuel Bor had that in Virginia Beach, he would have broken 13:00. Instead he ran 13:05.

Here is what i wrote in another thread on the BTC.

I agree with your point about Grant being 23, and likely ~4 years from his physical peak.

So, as opposed to many of the other responses here rooted in relativism and speculation, let’s inject some objectivity, courtesy of the IAAF tables (all races were very recent, great weather, even paced time trials):

7:37.21- 1194

13:02.5- 1201

27:11.4- 1208

Notice a pattern? He actually scores 7 pts better as the distance increases. So if we carry that out to the 1500/mile (skipping the 2K because it’s an odd distance), we can extrapolate GF’s 1500/mile to be...

3:34.1/3:51.1- 1187

He’s in as good of a position as any US runner - under the age of 24 - has ever been. Very close with Rupp and Solinsky at this age, no?

Grant will be 24 next month. He is doing a bit better than Klecker but they are both running slightly faster than many of us expected, whether it is a combination of the shoes and smart training etc.

Rojo, Cheptegei was rabbited for 5000m: he had the pacing lights. Why do you think he was able to click off metronomic 60+s laps?

You really don't think Fisher could have run something like 12:57 with a more even pace? He closed in 55 and didn't look too gassed at the end. He was mostly just focused on finally out-kicking Marc Scott.

It's amazing how consistently bad your takes are.

Klown wrote:

Grant will be 24 next month. He is doing a bit better than Klecker but they are both running slightly faster than many of us expected, whether it is a combination of the shoes and smart training etc.

But is Fisher faster than Rupp and Solinsky at both / all distances at the age of 23 years and 11 months? I believe so (but too lazy to look at the moment).

Also, might he and Scott have run even faster without that 27:11 two weeks ago? I believe so here as well. But he makes them look so easy, you can’t really tell.

Heartless wrote:

Klown wrote:

Grant will be 24 next month. He is doing a bit better than Klecker but they are both running slightly faster than many of us expected, whether it is a combination of the shoes and smart training etc.

But is Fisher faster than Rupp and Solinsky at both / all distances at the age of 23 years and 11 months? I believe so (but too lazy to look at the moment).

Also, might he and Scott have run even faster without that 27:11 two weeks ago? I believe so here as well. But he makes them look so easy, you can’t really tell.

So I looked it up:

Solinsky’s big year was when he was 25 years old. He set PRs from 3-10K: 7:34, 12:55, 26:59.

Rupp finally broke 13:00 when he was 26 years old (12:58.9). I believe he also ran his first sub-27:00 10K (~26:50?) that year or the previous year, when he was 25 (?).

So Grant seems to be right on pace, if not a bit ahead, of where they were.

Rojo, Cheptegei was rabbited for 5000m: he had the pacing lights. Why do you think he was able to click off metronomic 60+s laps?

You really don't think Fisher could have run something like 12:57 with a more even pace? He closed in 55 and didn't look too gassed at the end. He was mostly just focused on finally out-kicking Marc Scott.

It's amazing how consistently bad your takes are.

This guy said it best, but you won’t respond

John Wesley Harding wrote:

rojo wrote:

Fisher ran 413, then 413.5 for his first 2 3200s.

Now that would take some “super shoes.”

LOL

Jeez, cheap shot, and for no legitimate reason. You’re telling me that if they’d gone through 3k in 7:50-51 instead of 7:54, and Marc Scott hadn’t lost a step on Woody Kincaid, and he (or Ahmed, or Runner X) had rolled a 12:57.0, that Fisher wouldn’t have been able to follow him in in 12:57-58? It certainly appeared that way to me, given how comfortable he looked and the 55.3 last lap. Doing “ZERO” of the work is totally irrelevant. If his teammates had been ready to break 13, Fisher would have broken 13.

rojo wrote:

In a normal DL? Or a time trial?

Do you guys know what the weather is normally like in the average DL meet? Noting close to what you had last night. Cheptegei ran 12:35 in 79 degree temps with a dew point of 69. If Cheptegei had run his race with same temps as Grant and with wavelight starting at a slight negative split, he'd break 12:30.

How often is your DL meet run in a temp of the 50s? Hardly ever.

Look at Mo Ahmed. He ran 12:47 in Bowerman time trial and 12:58 in Europe.

While I’m at it, this is a load of bunk. Since when is every DL meet warm and muggy? It’s often quite conducive to 5k racing in Brussels or Zurich in late summer. Anything up to mid-70s is not deleterious to 5k performances as long as it’s not too humid.

You seem hung up on comparing Fisher’s 5k potential with Cheptegei’s world record, which is irrelevant.

Mo Ahmed ran 12:58 in his first 5k of the year in 2019, with only a pair of 3:41 1500s behind him. At the World Championships later that year he ran 13:01 with a 2:27 final K, most of which he led, beating the world leader (T. Haile Bekele, 12:52.98) and finishing 1.4” behind a 12:43 man. If you transport 2020, 12:47 Mo Ahmed to Brussels 2018 he runs sub-12:50 without a doubt, and maybe even faster than 12:47.

Exactly. Why do morons like Rojo seem to think that these BTC time trials are somehow infinitely easier than diamond league races? Ahmed had to run over a km by himself to run that 12:47, on a crapppy high school track with no wave lights. I have no doubt that Ahmed could have run faster than 12:47 in the proper diamond league race, with guys like Barega and Cheptegei pushing him the whole way.

To think that a BTC time trial paced by the likes of Keiran Tuntivate (no offense to him) on a high school track is somehow superior to a Diamond League race in Zurich is simply absurd.

I remember when some LRC fanboys were all over Cheserek and Knight's nut a couple of years ago. Talking down on Fisher. Well, just as expected Cheserek and Knight are going nowhere and Fisher is so far ahead and so much better than both now.

rememberer wrote:

I remember when some LRC fanboys were all over Cheserek and Knight's nut a couple of years ago. Talking down on Fisher. Well, just as expected Cheserek and Knight are going nowhere and Fisher is so far ahead and so much better than both now.

Knight's actually running pretty well, and he will be at the Olympics for Canada. But yeah, Ches has not had a good pro career unfortunately.