Jakob Ingebrintsen has no road to Olympic victory

He is probably one of the only clean runners.

hypoxic bliss wrote:...

How many would have ever predicted Centrowitz to win Olympic gold? Anything is possible.

The difference is that Centro had run 3:30, 1:44 the year before the Olympics, and that was after two prior medals in the 1500. And he closed in 50 seconds. Centro has wheels, Jakob at this point is very impressive but just that one notch slower than the top guys with 250m to go.

SDSU Aztec wrote:

There isn't a single runner that wouldn't trade a WR for an Olympic Gold. John Walker was the first to break 3:50, but he said he's proudest of his 1500 Gold in Montreal.

There isn't a single runner who isn't John Walker? Does not compute. I'm a runner, and in the unlikely event that I had a WR, I wouldn't trade it for an olympic gold. I wouldn't even go to the olympics if I had a spot, not interested.

The 1500 is one of the worst championship events. I don't care who can run times the entire field is capable of, but doing it three times. Running an event three times is almost as dumb as jumping three times in one jump! By this logic Yuki Kawauchi is the best marathoner for all those rapid fire 2:09s he has ran.

Bad Wigins wrote:

SDSU Aztec wrote:

There isn't a single runner that wouldn't trade a WR for an Olympic Gold. John Walker was the first to break 3:50, but he said he's proudest of his 1500 Gold in Montreal.

There isn't a single runner who isn't John Walker? Does not compute. I'm a runner, and in the unlikely event that I had a WR, I wouldn't trade it for an olympic gold. I wouldn't even go to the olympics if I had a spot, not interested.

The 1500 is one of the worst championship events. I don't care who can run times the entire field is capable of, but doing it three times. Running an event three times is almost as dumb as jumping three times in one jump! By this logic Yuki Kawauchi is the best marathoner for all those rapid fire 2:09s he has ran.

Since you won't run a wr or win an Olympic gold your preferences appear to be irrelevant. I'll take the views of those who have achieved those goals.

zvxczvxc wrote:

I don't see coronavirus having quite the expected impact in Kenya and Ethiopia simply because the population, and most importantly, the top athletes, are young and thin.

It might not have an impact in terms of deaths, but if everybody ends up catching it and if even a fit and healthy young athlete is impaired by 0.05% subsequently, that would be the end of distance running in East Africa.

Deano often points out that Coe's infection hardly showed symptoms outside of the fact that his racing was impaired. An Olympic athlete might not show any symptoms of damage to his lungs through the virus other than that he is 20 seconds slower over 5K.

Speculations. Not analysis. You can't even spell his name. Next time: Ingebrigtsen, not Ingebrintsen.

I think so too.

I just don't see him medaling in anything. But he gets an A for effort.

Coevett wrote:

zvxczvxc wrote:

I don't see coronavirus having quite the expected impact in Kenya and Ethiopia simply because the population, and most importantly, the top athletes, are young and thin.

It might not have an impact in terms of deaths, but if everybody ends up catching it and if even a fit and healthy young athlete is impaired by 0.05% subsequently, that would be the end of distance running in East Africa.

Deano often points out that Coe's infection hardly showed symptoms outside of the fact that his racing was impaired. An Olympic athlete might not show any symptoms of damage to his lungs through the virus other than that he is 20 seconds slower over 5K.

Yes, yes very likely that Covid-19 will wipe out East African distance running lol. You can dream, I guess, Coevett. Perhaps pray for a meteor?

Oh and you mean Coe's blood transfusion disease toxoplasmosis? Completely unrelated.

Coevett wrote:

zvxczvxc wrote:

I don't see coronavirus having quite the expected impact in Kenya and Ethiopia simply because the population, and most importantly, the top athletes, are young and thin.

It might not have an impact in terms of deaths, but if everybody ends up catching it and if even a fit and healthy young athlete is impaired by 0.05% subsequently, that would be the end of distance running in East Africa.

Deano often points out that Coe's infection hardly showed symptoms outside of the fact that his racing was impaired. An Olympic athlete might not show any symptoms of damage to his lungs through the virus other than that he is 20 seconds slower over 5K.

He won’t win a medal in the 5k because he placed 12 in world cross juniors behind a bunch of guys you’ve never heard of before. He won’t win gold in the 1500 because George Manangoi is N absolute monster

duhhhhh wrote:

He is probably one of the only clean runners.

Lol! Glad to hear he bathes regularly because that's the only thing clean about him.

He has many roads:

Tim takes the pace in Tokyo and runs 3:27... Jakob hangs on for 3:28. Silver.

Jakob drops a 59 with 5 laps to go in the 5k. Opens up a gap and runs a 4:56 last 2k. Gold.

The East Africans go through 2k in 5:00 and Jakob lays off the pace. They blow up; he doesn't Gold. (This one is least likely but what if Cheptegei breaks the WR? He will feel like he needs to front-run)

1,500 is tactical. Jakob wins a crapshoot for third. Bronze.

10k goes through 5k in 13:20. Jakob cruises along at threshold. Cheptegi and Kipruto run a 13:08 second 5k. Jakob runs 13:12. Bronze.

Easy.

Seppo Kaitenen wrote:

10k goes through 5k in 13:20. Jakob cruises along at threshold. Cheptegi and Kipruto run a 13:08 second 5k. Jakob runs 13:12. Bronze.

Easy.

LOL. Why stop at 26:28? Let's have them close in 12:50 for a 26:10 (WR!!) while we're talking about things that would only happen in our imaginations.

Are you talking about the upcoming Olympics? Because his odds of winning an Olympic /WC gold in his career are pretty good.

All of those are least likely than the next. Kenya will sweep the medals at 1500.

Ethiopia will sweep the 5k if Kejelcha runs. If not then Mo will get another bronze.

At 10k (which he won’t run) We will see a repeat of Doha placing. With Farah in 4 or 5

Bring back the 10000 heats.

Juice Springsteen wrote:

Are you talking about the upcoming Olympics? Because his odds of winning an Olympic /WC gold in his career are pretty good.

Yes, it's only for Tokyo as we can't know the field of the two Olympics after Tokyo. He may run into a talentless generation and vulture a title we never know.

It's about the next Olympics , the only one we know the field.

Some people talked about centrowitz. But Centrowitz won in one of the slowest ever 1500m race at the Olympics, and even if there was a repeat of that, Jakob does not have a clean finish strong enough to win in the last 600 after such a slow race.

Seppo Kaitenen wrote:

He has many roads:

Tim takes the pace in Tokyo and runs 3:27... Jakob hangs on for 3:28. Silver.

Jakob drops a 59 with 5 laps to go in the 5k. Opens up a gap and runs a 4:56 last 2k. Gold.

The East Africans go through 2k in 5:00 and Jakob lays off the pace. They blow up; he doesn't Gold. (This one is least likely but what if Cheptegei breaks the WR? He will feel like he needs to front-run)

1,500 is tactical. Jakob wins a crapshoot for third. Bronze.

10k goes through 5k in 13:20. Jakob cruises along at threshold. Cheptegi and Kipruto run a 13:08 second 5k. Jakob runs 13:12. Bronze.

Easy.

1500: Jakob never hang on a fast pace

5000: Jakob won't open any gap on the field , and is not a runner who lead and set the pace. He also does not like change of path.

If someone push the pace in the 5000, several athletes will hang on and one of them will still beat Jakob, it's extremely unlikely than all of them die and let a distant Jakob win the gold.

They know he is a threat in the last lap of a slow race at 5 000 and they won't let the races end like Mo Farah races. They will run a quite fast 5 000 with a very fast last 1000 and last 400.

For the 10 000 he will not even enter the event and would likely not even be a factor.

I am looking forward to reading this thread in a decade from now.

Jakob would also be heavy favorite in the half-marathon if the IOC added it to the program. No one else has a threshold like he does.