LetsRun.com's Preview of The 5000s at The 2012 US Olympic Track & Field Trials

Star Studded Men's 5000 Will Be One Of The Highlights Of The Meet For The LetsRun.com Faithful

June 24, 2012

Below are two somewhat abbreviated previews of the men's and women's 5000s. We'll update the previews before the final.

Men's 5000: Which of The Big Three Gets The Win?

The men's 5000 is a race that likely has the LetsRun.com nation salivating. Unlike the women's field which lacks standouts at the world level, the men's field is full of some real studs. Take a look at the six guy under the IAAF's fairly stiff standard of 13:20.00.

Galen Rupp  Nike    12:58.90    
Bernard Lagat   Nike    13:07.15    
Lopez Lomong    Nike    13:11.63    
Matt Tegenkamp  Nike / Oregon TC Elite  13:15.00    We've been told by David Monti that he's a scratch.
Andrew Bumbalough   Nike    13:16.26    
Chris Derrick   Stanford University 13:19.58

Of those six, there is a clear-cut top three - Galen Rupp, Bernard Lagat and Lopez Lomong.

A few comments about all of them.

Rupp - The 26:48.00 man seems to be in the fitness of his life as he put on a clinic in the 10,000 here on Friday night after breaking 13:00 at Pre.

A big story line at recent US champs the last few years has been, "Is Rupp getting close to beating Bernard Lagat?" and each time the answer has been, "No." Most recently indoors, Lagat destroyed Rupp at 3000. Lifetime, Rupp is 0 for 12 against Lagat. Will number 13 be lucky for Galen?

Lagat - The American record holder and 2007 world 5000 champ almost never loses 5000 to Americans. In fact, we're not sure if he's ever lost a 5,000 to an American? We know one thing about Lagat - he's won the 5000 at the US champs easily each and every time he's run it - 2006, 2007, 2008, 2010, 2011. Last year, Lagat ran his last 1,600 in 3:57.80 to beat Chris Solinsky and Galen Rupp.

Lomong - The US flag bearer from the 2008 Olympics just moved up to the 5,000 this year and has one truly competitive 5000 to his name and boy was it memorable. In the heat of battle, Lomong forgot that a 5,000 was 12.5 laps and not 11.5 laps but he still ran 13.11.63 which is way faster than anyone else in the field.

13:11.63 is a long way from 13:00, but the 2009 world championship finalist has more natural speed than Rupp and is way younger than Lagat. Can Lomong kick with them if it's a somewhat tactical battle?

The question isn't really who finishes top three but rather who wins it? We'll find out later this week.

One more thing, US mile record holder Alan Webb is entered in this race but the more we think about it - the answer is, "Why?" I guess the odds of getting the 'A' and top 3 in the 1,500 are slim but are they any more slim than beating Lagat, Rupp and Lomong?

LRC Predictions

1) Lagat 2) Rupp 3) Lomong

Heat 1  Name    Affiliation
1   Bolota Asmerom  Unattached
2   Elliot Heath    Stanford
3   Scott Bauhs Unattached
4   Jacob Riley Hansons-Brooks Distance Projec
5   Robert Cheseret Unattached
6   Andrew Bumbalough   Nike
7   Yosef Ghebray   Unattached
8   Trevor Dunbar   Oregon
9   Mohamed Trafeh  Nike
10  Alan Webb   Nike
11  Matt Tegenkamp  Nike / Oregon TC Elite
12  Galen Rupp  Nike
13  Dan Lowry   Brown University

Heat 2  Name    Affiliation
1   Chris Derrick   Stanford
2   Ian Dobson  Nike / Oregon TC Elite
3   Benjamin True   Saucony
4   Ryan Hill   North Carolina State
5   Brent Vaughn    Nike
6   Bernard Lagat   Nike
7   Brandon Bethke  Unattached
8   Girma Mecheso   Oklahoma State
9   Lopez Lomong    Nike
10  Hassan Mead Minnesota
11  Stephen Furst   adidas Raleigh TC
12  George Alex Oklahoma

Who will win the
Men's 5000m?
Bernard Lagat 68.8%
Galen Rupp 27%
Lopez Lomong 3.7%
Dathan Ritzenhein 0.3%
Other 0.1%
Andrew Bumbalough 0%
David Torrence 0%
Alan Webb 0%
Brent Vaughn 0%


Women's 5000:

The women's 5k features 11 women under the soft IAAF standard of 15:20.00 and five more who have run within 5 seconds of it.

To help narrow it down, we've eliminated 6 of them to help get it down to 10 people for you to consider if you are still making your selections in the Brooks Prediction contest.

The Sub 15:25 Entrants - "A" Standard is 15:20.00
Lauren Fleshman
 Nike / Oregon TC Elite  15:00.57    She has been hurt.
Julia Lucas Nike / Oregon TC Elite  15:08.52    The US leader for 2011.
Molly Huddle    Saucony 15:10.01    The 4th American in Pre 3k (Maloy, Ulh & Felnagle beat her)
Jennifer Rhines adidas  15:10.44     She hasn't been running well.  Age seemingly has caught up with Rhines who turns 38 on July 1. She has run pretty awful in nearly ever race this year and is skipping 10,000 for this race.
Julie Culley    Asics / New York Athletic Club (NYAC)   15:13.87    She beat Jessica Tebo & Maloy at Payton Jordan, lost to Lucas.
Magdalena Lewy Boulet   Saucony 15:14.25    She hasn't race since the trials. We're assuming if she was fit, she'd have done the 5k.
Jackie Areson   Nike    15:14.31    She is undefeated in 5000 this year.
Amy Hastings    Brooks  15:14.31  Will she even start this race?
Lisa Uhl    Nike / Oregon TC Elite  15:15.22    She made the 10k team and has little motivation to go for it big time here. Has lost to Areson twice this year in 5000/
Elizabeth Maloy New Balance 15:15.34    Who says people don't improve after college? Graduated Georgetown with pbs of 4:16/16:25. Now under the training of Miltenberg, she's an Olympic hopeful. Top American at Pre 3000.
Angela Bizzarri Brooks  15:16.04     15:55 sb, ran 9:14 at Pre (Maloy ran 8:50)/
Brie Felnagle   adidas  15:22.39    Former 1,500 runner for UNC.
Abbey D'Agostino  Dartmouth 15:23.35  NCAA champ.
Alisha Williams Boulder Running Company/adidas  15:24.82    5th in 10k.
Kim Conley  SRA Elite   15:24.89 Surprised she skipped the 10k for this since she'd run 32:00.

In all honesty, we think the big ones to consider are Julia Lucas, Molly Huddle, Julie Culley, Jaxkie Areson, Liz Maloy and Abbey D'Agostino. How many is that? Six.

That should help. Amy Hastings has  the talent to be able to make it but we figure she's got little motivation to do so after making the 10k.

We'll do a full preview before the final.

LRC Prediction: This is a hard event to pick as there are no real standouts in terms of people who are truly competitive on the international stage?

1) Lucas 2) Areson 3) Maloy

See who the top picks are in the LRC prediction contest.

Parting Thought: The field isn't full of international standouts but it's definitely deep by US standards as there are 27 people in it - as 27 hit the Olympic Trials "A" of 15:35.

Lane    Name    Affiliation
1   Angela Bizzarri Brooks
2   Amanda Dunne    Saucony
3   Lisa Uhl    Nike / Oregon TC Elite
4   Frances Koons   New Balance / NYAC
5   Kathy Kroeger   Stanford
6   Renee Metivier Baillie  Unattached
7   Julia Lucas Nike / Oregon TC Elite
8   Emily Infeld    Georgetown
9   Brie Felnagle   adidas
10  Emily Sisson    Unattached
11  Julie Culley    Asics/N Y A C
12  Abbey D'Agostino    Unattached
13  Deborah Maier   Unattached
14  Jackie Areson   Nike

Heat 2  Name    Affiliation
1   Nicole Aish Unattached
2   Lauren Fleshman Nike / Oregon TC Elite
3   Kellyn Johnson  adidas/McMillan Elite
4   Alissa McKaig   ZAP Fitness Reebok
5   Elizabeth Maloy New Balance
6   Katherine Mackey    Brooks
7   Tara Erdmann    Unattached
8   Amy Hastings    Brooks
9   Alisha Williams Boulder Running Company/adidas
10  Jennifer Rhines adidas
11  Molly Huddle    Saucony
12  Magdalena Lewy Boulet   Saucony
13  Kim Conley  SRA Elite

Who will win the
Women's 5000m?
Julia Lucas 43.8%
Jackie Areson 25.2%
Molly Huddle 21.8%
Lisa Uhl 4.4%
Julie Culley 3.3%
Amy Hastings 0.5%
Jessica Tebo 0.3%
Other 0.3%
Brie Felnagle 0.2%
Jennifer Rhines 0.1%
Magdalena Lewy Boulet 0.1%
Elizabeth Maloy 0%
Angela Bizzarri 0%


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