The model 3 is the best car in the world and they have the infrastructure to be great. Btw, Tesla has so many other products and patents that they will never go chapter 7, perhaps there might some restructuring at some point.
Why is this the best car in the world?
webby wrote:
Good one. They had $6 billion in revenue in the past three months and are about to announce that they made a profit despite ramping up production 200% in one quarter.
They also make the best cars on the road, have no union to deal with, cutting edge factories, and sell direct to customers. They have no serious competition.
And as of today, the most prominent short seller, Andrew Left, agrees:
https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/tesla-stock-price-andrew-left-changes-view-2018-10-1027645635And a huge earnings beat: $2.90/share PROFIT.
Can we stop saying that they lose money on every car? They don't lose money at all. They make money. They are not going bankrupt.
Thank you. That's all.
webby wrote:
And a huge earnings beat: $2.90/share PROFIT.
Can we stop saying that they lose money on every car? They don't lose money at all. They make money. They are not going bankrupt.
Thank you. That's all.
Somebody is making money but that is not related to selling Tesla's.
theJeff wrote:
FFF wrote:
Tesla is Apple, in 1984.
All Apple had to do in 1984 was license the MacOS to everyone else, and Windows would be in the trashheap like all the other early-80s operating systems.
Because Tesla is a battery company first, and a car company third or fourth, ALL they have to do is create a common car platform or three, and license it/them to all the other car manufacturers. It might be too late, given China, since China is eating our lunch anyway, but that's how Trump wants it, so there you go.
It is pretty immature to drop an irrelevant name just to elicit an emotional response. That is the kind of thing Hitler did.
+1
Henry Ford wrote:
Somebody is making money but that is not related to selling Tesla's.
I can't say that I understand your cryptic post, but I think it's safe to assume that it's wrong, based on your track record here.
So you have the 5th best selling car model in the US (first in $ terms)
You only have to support 3 models
The Model that you sell is mostly the fully loaded model
You mostly sell to the local US market
You spend zero in advertising
You have a direct selling model
You ask for deposits on your cars
...and you are profitable. What a surprise...
Remember that the Q4 sales will be significantly higher than the Q3 sales
The Model 3 could be the number selling car in the US (in units) in December 2018
webby wrote:
Henry Ford wrote:
Somebody is making money but that is not related to selling Tesla's.
I can't say that I understand your cryptic post, but I think it's safe to assume that it's wrong, based on your track record here.
Just remember, that the new head accountant of Tesla, just left again after one month. He saw the cooked books and thought he better leaves before he has to sign off on anything there.
https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/tesla-stock-price-chief-accountant-resigns-2018-9-1027517271Henry Ford wrote:
Just remember, that the new head accountant of Tesla, just left again after one month. He saw the cooked books and thought he better leaves before he has to sign off on anything there.
I generally agree with your instinct to sell any time an accountant or CFO quits abruptly. I'm comforted in this case by the fact that analysts have drones counting the number of cars that get built and delivered each month. So we know the numbers aren't off by a lot. And we know the margins are higher than expected because they haven't even started to offer anything under $49,000 yet.
Everyone knows that Musk is hard to work with and that there has been an exodus of executives, and yet the company thrives.
webby wrote:
Henry Ford wrote:
Just remember, that the new head accountant of Tesla, just left again after one month. He saw the cooked books and thought he better leaves before he has to sign off on anything there.
I generally agree with your instinct to sell any time an accountant or CFO quits abruptly. I'm comforted in this case by the fact that analysts have drones counting the number of cars that get built and delivered each month. So we know the numbers aren't off by a lot. And we know the margins are higher than expected because they haven't even started to offer anything under $49,000 yet.
Everyone knows that Musk is hard to work with and that there has been an exodus of executives, and yet the company thrives.
Tesla hasn't sold cars for $49,000 or $35,000 yet because they are not feasible, financially. Tesla had just one quarter with profit. The first one in 15 years. There is nothing there. Tesla is not doing anything the other car manufactures won't do better and cheaper. The are just getting started because the interest was not just there yet.
Musk just knows how to create hype. A car builder he is not.
Great article which describes well that Musk is cooking the books.
While I am certain that Tesla collapses in the near future, all evidence seems to show that they’ve used every trick from every financial fraud over the past 100 years to put lipstick on the Q3 financial results.” Modern day Ivar Kreuger has not disappointed.
Over the years, I have purposefully kept accounting and numbers to a minimum on this site—they’re “boring.” Besides, if you must use a fancy spreadsheet to prove a point, then your thesis isn’t very good to begin with. The numbers should fit onto a bar napkin after a full night of drinking. Unless, of course, you suspect fraud—in that case, numbers and financial ratios are everything. With that out of the way, let’s delve into the Q3 Tesla numbers
Let’s move to the balance sheet. Accounts receivable is usually where frauds hide the questionable transactions. If you give me enough beers, I can dream up a list of one-off reasons that a car may be sold without payment having occurred, but I will struggle to give you $585 million reasons (red). On the conference call, they noted that accounts receivable increased due to their last day of sales occurring on a Sunday. Sounds logical and all, except Q4/2017 also ended on a Sunday and accounts receivable showed a 15.2% sequential decline. Back then, energy generation, services and other (the things that normally have accounts receivable) were 17.8% of sales, today they are 10.6% of sales. Have you ever driven a car off the lot and not paid for it first? Something simply makes no sense here
The real glaring issue is found in depreciation. They depreciate their tooling on a per car basis—hence, more cars sold, more depreciation. It should be linear as each car should use almost the same amount of tooling. I know there’s energy/services/other that gets depreciated, so it will bounce around a bit, but since automotive is 80-90% of total sales, the automotive depreciation should stay roughly constant. Look below; which quarter is not like any other quarter? Which quarter sees depreciation per vehicle drop by almost half?
I can keep pointing to inconsistencies. What’s the point? Something is rotten with these numbers. There is plenty of anecdotal evidence to show that some people are waiting months for cars, people are receiving cars with the wrong VINs or owned by other people, cars are piling up in funny places, etc. While it’s easy to blame “delivery hell” also known as “incompetence,” I suspect that there is a more nefarious reason for these issues. Somehow or another, Tesla is gaming the working capital and depreciation numbers, ultimately flowing into COGS and profits. They are focused on an epic blow-out quarter so that they can raise additional capital and keep their scheme alive into 2019. Besides, why else have they lost their entire accounting department (CAO twice) this year? Accountants don’t usually leave a business when it’s about to have a blow-out quarter—unless they want to avoid prison.
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