Shooting for sub3 on 22 October

*of course I mean 4x5km @4:12/km for this Sunday and not 4:42

Very good mileage.

Very good consistency.

Very good regular tempos.

Very good long runs.

Very good long marathon pace workouts.

I am sure you know all of that!

Yes, you are on the right track. I'd be shocked if you can't break 3. You can. You can probably go faster. As to whether you will, that will be about race day. Where are you racing? Have you run a marathon before? Do you have your Fri-Sat-Sun nutrition down? When you feel amazing at 5, 10, 13 miles, can you stay within yourself and not decide to shoot for a faster time still?

Your preparation is really excellent. Trust in that, and don't try to do too much in the final weeks. If anything, I think the risk in your plan is doing too much in your third-to-last week.

Good luck. Please do come back and let us know how it goes.

Thank you for the replay.

I will race in Lausanne (Switzerland). The course is not flat and superfast, but I think it should be OK.

This is my 6th Marathon with a PR of 3:03 from my last race 2 years ago.

With carbo-loading and fuelling I should be well up.

Of course I think it should be no problem for me to stay within myself, even though I would feel amazing through the halfway point. Main objective is to break 3 hours, no matter if only with 1 second or 3 minutes of difference.

I'm on a similar level, running New York on 11/5. I usually run my tempo runs at 4:00/km pace (which is Daniel's T pace for a 3 hours marathon). The longest one was 4x2mile w 2 min rest + 2x1mile w 1 min rest, which went surprisingly well (total of 16km! but the rest helps). Your threshold runs are faster than that, these would be time trials for me. So that would mean you are looking good.

But what I'm missing a bit, what was your longest MP run (@4:15)? Your long runs are all somewhat in between what would be an easy pace for me and MP. Did you run segments at MP and segments at an easier pace? Have you done any run of 20km + at MP?

To add to that: For me the MP workouts are actually the hardest. That might be because I don't have a long-term aerobic base, it's also partly because I do the tempo runs usually at night on a track, while the MP runs I do on weekend, in the morning (which is tough for me), it's often hot, and I run on a slightly hilly course which should mimic the marathon course somewhat.

Can you talk in miles and miles/hour?

As MP work I will do as longest workout 4x5km @4:12/km this Sunday. I did 10km @4:15/km in week 3, 40min @4:17/km in week 6 and 50min @4:20/km (not flat) in week 7.

In week 8 I did 3x20min a bit faster as MP.

I don’t think for a 3 hour Marathoner more than 20km @MP is needed or even beneficial.

In my long runs I don’t have included MP segments till now. I will do this only next Sunday and the Sunday two weeks before the race. I run my long runs at a moderate effort, more or less about 10% slower than marathon pace. I also run them fastened and without liquid but. I don’t know if it’s beneficial but I like to run them that way.

Your training is looking good. A total of 16km @4:00/km is not a walk.

What’s your weekly average mileage?

As a disclaimer, I'm probably less experienced than you, never seriously trained for a marathon (did one like 7 years wo any serious training in 3:38). And there's probably not just one training philosophy that works well.

That being said, I was following the Daniel's 2Q plan, which has one long run with 12mi (20km) at MP and one with 8mi (13km) + 6mi (10k), plus shorter ones. I actually miserable failed the 20km MP run @4:28, but it was quite hot and maybe was just an off day overall (really worried me though). The rest I could complete. I run similar milage, 75-105 km / week, starting 18 weeks before the marathon. It's usually one long run 25-32km plus one medium-long run 17-27km midweek, almost all involving tempo runs, MP runs and/or VO2max intervals. The rest easy.

So I don't know if long MP runs are actually necessary for a 3 hour marathon, I just observed that these are hard for me and hence I thought they are important (at least for me).

Btw, I get why running the long runs fastened might help, but I would at least drink water. That would totally trash me.

1km = 1.609miles

1mile = 0.621miles

dothemath wrote:

1km = 1.609miles

1mile = 0.621miles

I can understand the previous poster being too lazy to do the conversions, but why ask for miles/hour? My last marathon was at 9.872 mph, but I have never referred to pace that way. Cyclists do, and maybe treadmill runners?

Here we go in miles

week 1 (62.5mi)

Q1 18.6mi @7:30

week 2 (61.5mi)

Q1 10m incl. 5mi Tempo @6:47

Q2 10.3mi incl. 6x3min/1min jog @6:02

Q2 19.3mi @7:30

week 3 (48.4mi)

Q1 12.4mi incl. 5x6min/1.5min jog @6:21

Q2 10.6mi incl. 10k Temporun in 42:26 (6:47/mi)

week 4 (59.4mi)

Q1 4.4mi Threshold Tempo @6:16 + 7x20sec Striders

Q2 10.8mi incl. 6x3min/1min jog @6:10

Q3 20mi @7:30

week 5 (56.9mi)

Q1 10.8mi incl. 10k Temporun in 39:16 (6:19/mi)

Q2 13.7mi @7:25 incl. last 2k all out

week 6 (54.8mi)

Q1 8.3mi incl. 5x4min/1.5min jog @5:53

Q2 12.7 last 40min @6:53

Q3 13.9mi hilly @8:49 (DOMS for 4 days afterward)

week 7 (62.5mi)

Q1 9.2mi incl. 30min Threshold Tempo @6:14

Q2 13.1mi last 50min @6:58

Q3 21.9mi @7:36

week 8 (62.5mi)

Q1 11.9mi incl. 3x20min/3min jog @6:40/6:37/6:34 each per mile

Q2 12.5mi @7:59 incl. 10x30sec pickups @5:37

Q3 17mi @7:41

This week I've run 11.4mi incl. 6x4min/2min jog @6:05/6:05/6:05/6:03/5:57/5:52 each per mile

For Sunday I've planned a long run over 20miles incl. 4x5k @6:45 with 3min jog between. Total for the week about 62miles

For the last 3 weeks before Marathon I've planned

week 10

Q1 approx 12.4mi incl. 60min @6:34-6:39

Q2 approx 15-16mi incl. 8mi @6:45-6:55

week 11

Q1 approx 10-11mi incl. 5x6min/1.5min jog @6:10-6:18

Q2 approx 11mi @8:00

week 12

Q1 ca. 6-7mi incl. 3mi @6:45

Q2 42.2k @6:45

Looks much less impressive now!

Those metric system scumbags, screw them.

above_average_joe wrote:

I'm on a similar level, running New York on 11/5. I usually run my tempo runs at 4:00/km pace (which is Daniel's T pace for a 3 hours marathon). The longest one was 4x2mile w 2 min rest + 2x1mile w 1 min rest, which went surprisingly well (total of 16km! but the rest helps). Your threshold runs are faster than that, these would be time trials for me. So that would mean you are looking good.

But what I'm missing a bit, what was your longest MP run (@4:15)? Your long runs are all somewhat in between what would be an easy pace for me and MP. Did you run segments at MP and segments at an easier pace? Have you done any run of 20km + at MP?

Not to burst your bubble, but if you're running your tempo runs at 4:00/km (6:30 per mile for Americans) pace, you have no chance of breaking 3 hours at NYC.

First, Daniels notoriously is too aggresive in his calculations. He says that 1:26 half can get you to break 3 hours. That is only true for people running 80+mpw who have run multiple marathons before.

Second, NYC is a very difficult course, which alone will add at least 5 seconds if not 10 seconds per mile to your pace.

I think you need to be closer to 3:50 KM pace to break 3 at NYC

Point well taken, I'm aware of the aggressive Daniels conversion and also that NYC is not an easy course. To be precise, 4:00/km is 6:26/mi. I also tend to have something in the tank at the end of tempo runs, e.g. last time 4x2mi @6:26/mi and then 2x1mi @6:13/mi without feeling completely trashed.

It's a bit hard for me to assess my chances, as the buildup to the NYC marathon is the only serious training cycle I've ever done (used to play a lot of soccer before). I ran 1:27 flat in a half couple of weeks ago in the middle of marathon training, on a course similar to NYC, hopefully the weather is going to be more favorable in NYC though.

I agree that something like 3:10 (?) would be a more reasonable goal for me. Doesn't sound as sexy though, no BQ, no sub 3. I might just take my chances.

have you hit a 5x18 workout yet?

With a 1:27 half and this being your first real cycle (let alone your first marathon), I think 3:10 is probably where you will finish. If you do go out at 1:29:30, I can guarantee you that you will blow up. The second half of NYC is tougher than the first half anyway due to the three bridges and 5th ave uphill mile.

I am running Daniels 2Q myself. I have a 1:20 half in the bag and have been running tempos at 6:05, and I'm still concerned that a sub 3 will be difficult.

I'm not trying to be difficult by the way. Just speaking from experience. You will enjoy yourself much more if you just pace yourself for a 3:10, and even that will probably be a stretch.

OP - what course are you running? I think you are close to sub 3 but course can matter a lot (besides the obvious race day weather question).

Inconsistent wrote:

OP - what course are you running? I think you are close to sub 3 but course can matter a lot (besides the obvious race day weather question).

I will race in Lausanne (Switzerland). The course is not flat and superfast, but I think it should be OK.

If you have ran a 1:20 half and are hitting tempos at 6:05, running sub 3 should be a breeze - unless you have absolutely no endurance. After a proper taper, 6:50 miles should barely feel like a jog. Someone with solid endurance and marathon experience could run around 2:50 off of this training....

I think you missed the point that we are running NYC, not a flat easy course. Also, once again, we are talking about people without marathon experience. This is exactly why I don't think they are near sub 3 shape.