POLL yes or no, will Mo debut faster than Bekele?

I think yes, but only because of the course. It'll be interesting to watch for sure, though.

Good thread.

No- he doesn't have the same endurance level as Kenny Ken.

no, he is very speed oriented and tends to like to sit and kick, I respect his speed and tactics but 2:05 flat ish or less on a debut? not likely IMO

HingIe McCringIeberry wrote:

My vote is no.

Despite a faster course and likely good pacing until the end Mo won't debut faster. In a race from start to finish Mo isn't on the same level.

No,

He will not finish the race. Sad but possible.

No. I think he chases what is likely to be a very fast early pace, blows up somewhere between 25k - 35k and is either a DNF or an also ran in 2:08 - 2:10.

If he lays off the early pace, I could see him running 2:06 high / 2:07 low, but I don't think he's capable of much better than that right now.

Would be fun if he proves me wrong and runs close to / even faster than KB's time. Whatever happens in London, it seems like there's the potential for a very exciting fall marathon season. One plausible scenario: KB makes a hardcore WR attempt in Berlin while Mo takes a bunch of TCS money to come to New York and perhaps have another go at G Mutai + several other top East Africans, still leaving a bunch of the other top guys to run Chicago.

This is an amazing era in marathon running - we should enjoy it while the sponsorship money lasts!

side bar question: any chance Bekele takes a rip at the half marathon WR - seems like one he'd have a very decent shot at - as part of his build up to his fall marathon?

Are you kidding me? No way he will run faster than Bekele's Debut. This conclusion is derived from two facts:

1. Only two times in the entire history of London marathon

has anyone ever run under 2:05:03(Emanuel Mutai-2011 and

Wilson Kipsang-2012). Reasons for that might be my

point #2

2. London marathon is known as a "slaughter house" for

elite marathoners. Due to strong fields assembled every

year making it the most competitive marathon in the world

(including the world champs and the Olympics), some of

the best runners in the world have been reduced to

walkers or worse, DNFs. Many remember two years ago how

Abel Kirui and Feyisa Lelisa, after keeping up pace

with Wilson Kipsang, almost walked the last mile

(Note: This is the most like scenario for Mo if not a

DNF). The carnage is just too much and is not for the

faint hearted.

The only way for him to run under Bekele's time is if the winning time is sub 2:03 which would be great.

Right. This race was set up for a Bekele time trial. Dont get me wrong, it is a great result. But London is a race. If you put those same guys in Paris, it could have been a very different outcome for Bekele. He may have had to match moves and been put out of his comfort zone.

I think Mo will come in around 2:08-2:10 for 4th or 5th.

quote]Calgary wrote:

Are you kidding me? No way he will run faster than Bekele's Debut. This conclusion is derived from two facts:

1. Only two times in the entire history of London marathon

has anyone ever run under 2:05:03(Emanuel Mutai-2011 and

Wilson Kipsang-2012). Reasons for that might be my

point #2

2. London marathon is known as a "slaughter house" for

elite marathoners. Due to strong fields assembled every

year making it the most competitive marathon in the world

(including the world champs and the Olympics), some of

the best runners in the world have been reduced to

walkers or worse, DNFs. Many remember two years ago how

Abel Kirui and Feyisa Lelisa, after keeping up pace

with Wilson Kipsang, almost walked the last mile

(Note: This is the most like scenario for Mo if not a

DNF). The carnage is just too much and is not for the

faint hearted.

The only way for him to run under Bekele's time is if the winning time is sub 2:03 which would be great.[/quote]

No

1) See Calgary reply above

2) Mo is debuting in a race against people, Bekele chose a race against time.

Regarding ítem 2), I think they chose their races based on $.

over50 wrote:

No

1) See Calgary reply above

2) Mo is debuting in a race against people, Bekele chose a race against time.

No - Mo is a mid d guy with a huge kick - not a marathoner.

"Right. This race was set up for a Bekele time trial. Dont get me wrong, it is a great result. But London is a race. If you put those same guys in Paris, it could have been a very different outcome for Bekele. He may have had to match moves and been put out of his comfort zone.

I think Mo will come in around 2:08-2:10 for 4th or 5th."

Which is an incredibly dumb move for Farah. Why would you pick London of all places as your first marathon? I mean running the distance in itself is a challenging task. Why make it much more harder with a loaded field especially if it's your DEBUT at the distance. I hope he does well but I think he is going to find his first marathon experience troubling.

Because he is British and they will pay him a ton of money to race there for his debut.

Does it really matter what he runs? The Brits get his debut, if it goes badly he may not do another for a while, if ever. Then the Brits had him for the day - with his 3.28 1500, he has the speed to run faster on the track, unless he absolutely pops one (sub-2h05), I think he should go back to that to see what he is capable.

Bekele has already "been there, done that", unless/until someone breaks his 5k/10k records what is the point of him doing track?

No

At mile 20 Farah will hit 0% body fat, collapse and die.

No.

Farah is a fraud of a champion winning championships with a kick against 2nd tier competition. Bekele is the real deal.

HingIe McCringIeberry wrote:

My vote is no.

Despite a faster course and likely good pacing until the end Mo won't debut faster. In a race from start to finish Mo isn't on the same level.

As much as I'd like to believe in sub 2:05 MIRACLES, I think he'd be lucky to finish in 2:05:30s. I'm confident--since Bekele ran alone so much in his debut--that head to head, Farah is slower right now. Having stronger pacemakers and better competitors in the race could potentially assist Mo Farah more so than Bekele received. So, unless Farah is sticks with the leaders at a blistering, top of the charts Marathon pace (2:04:30s and less), and miraculously manages to hang in... he'd be lucky just not to blow up.

Nope!

well wrote:

Which is an incredibly dumb move for Farah. Why would you pick London of all places as your first marathon?

Is this a trick question?

This was a two-year deal, negotiated when Mo was at the height of his popularity just months after winning the Olympic double in his home country on the biggest sporting stage in the world. He got an absurd amount of money for running less than half the race last year on the front end of the deal. I'm glad that he apparently intends to honor his obligations on the back end of the deal, and I will be disappointed if he DNFs.

To me, the big question is whether Geb is really going to set a WR pace through 30K, as was announced in February. If he does, there will be carnage among the lead pack. I don't believe that Mo can maintain WR pace through 30K in London without blowing up over the last 12K, so if he is going to beat Bekele's time, then he's probably going to have to do it by coming from behind, either on his own or with personal pacemakers. I doubt that's going to happen. Still, many people, including me, have underestimated Mo in the past.

Then again, like other posters said, the quality of the field will contribute to racing (in London). I was speaking just out of what I heard that strong pacemaking will be provided. But certainly, after the pacemakers drop out, it could get brutal, which will conceivably lead to Farah blowing up or disrupting a steady rhythm that might encourage him to finish fast and strong.

Nope.