Women’s distance storylines for Worlds: Are Faith, Keely and Beatrice unbeatable? Who wins the 5000? Will the WR fall in the steeple?

The 2025 World Athletics Championships will take place in Tokyo’s National Stadium from September 13-21. The meet starts on Saturday and will be the fourth time Tokyo has hosted a global track championships (1964 Olympics, 1991 Worlds, 2021 Olympics, 2025 Worlds) — tied with London and Paris for the most of any city. And it’s the first time fans will get to experience a global champs at the beautiful National Stadium; it was built for the 2020 Olympics, but no fans were allowed to attend when the Olympics were postponed to 2021 due to COVID.

We’ll be on-site to cover it all for you. If you want all our on-site reporting, including our daily ad-free podcasts from Tokyo, join our Supporters Club today.

We already broke down the men’s 10,000 for you here: LRC 2025 Worlds: Can Grant Fisher or Nico Young win a 10,000 gold for America in Tokyo 61 years after Billy Mills?

This article will focus on the women’s distance events — the 800 through the marathon. There are four major storylines:

1. Women’s 800, 1500 and 10,000: Are Keely Hodgkinson, Faith Kipyegon and Beatrice Chebet unbeatable?
2. Who wins the titanic 5000 clash between Faith Kipyegon and Beatrice Chebet in the 5000?
3. Who wins the women’s steeple? Could the world record go?
4. Does one of the big stars — Tigst Assefa or Peres Jepchirchir — win the potentially very hot women’s marathon?

Let me break them down for you, but before I do. Did you know we have a free prediction contest? Enter now and spread the word. You can play in a group with your friends: 2025 World Championships Prediction Contest: $200,025 on the line.

Women’s 800, 1500 and 10,000: Are Keely Hodgkinson, Faith Kipyegon and Beatrice Chebet unbeatable?

Three of the six women’s distance events feature heavy, heavy favorites. And for good reason.

Keely Hodgkinson (-1000, 90.9% implied win rate), Faith Kipyegon (-1000, 90.9% implied win rate) and Beatrice Chebet (-5000, 83.3% implied win rate) are three of the all-time greats at their events. Let me briefly take you through the pros and cons for each.

Keely Hodgkinson – Great Britain, 800 meters

Diamond League AG for Diamond League AG

Why Hodgkinson appears unbeatable: Hodgkinson, the reigning Olympic champ, hasn’t lost an 800 since 2023. This year, she’s raced twice and destroyed everyone in both of her races. In her 2025 debut in Silesia, she ran a world-leading 1:54.74 and won by nearly two full seconds (1.78). In her second race in Lausanne, she ran 1:55 and beat Switzerland’s Audrey Warro, the 2025 world #2 by 1.65 seconds. The 1:54.61 personal best she ran last year in London was the fastest time by a woman not named Caster Semenya since 2008 and may make her the fastest non-intersex woman (xx)  in the women’s 800 since the 1980s.

Not only is Hodgkinson extremely talented, but she’s also extremely well-coached. She trains with Trevor Painter‘s M11 Track Club — the top middle distance group in the world for women.

Another big thing going for her is her two biggest rivals — Athing Mu-Nikolayev (2021 Olympic/2022 world champion, 1:54.97 pb) and Mary Moraa (2023 world champ, 1:56.07 pb) — are both in terrible form. Mu-Nikolayev didn’t make the US team and won’t be in Tokyo while Kenya’s Moraa hasn’t run faster than 1:57.83 this year. Those are the only two women on planet Earth to beat the 23-year-old Hodgkinson in an 800 the last three years.

Why Hodgkinson could be beaten: Hodgkinson has battled injury issues throughout her career. In December 2021, she had an Achilles issue. Then in March 2022, she pulled out of World Indoors, which she was heavily favored to win, with a quad injury. Last year, she shut down her season after the Olympics due to a “small injury.” This year, she pulled out of an indoor world record attempt at the Keely Classic — an event named after her — due to a hamstring tear. She then had a setback with the hamstring in June and didn’t open up until August 16.

By her lofty standards, Mary Moraa has been in horrible form this year. That being said, she hasn’t raced since July 22. Is it possible she has gotten right in the last seven weeks? Or is that absence from the circuit further indication that Moraa is in big trouble for 2025?

LRC take: Given Keely’s injury history and Moraa’s unpredictability, there doesn’t seem to be any value in betting Keely as a 90% favorite. If healthy, does Keely win this race 9 times out of 10? Yes, I think she does, but how do I know she’s 100%?

More on Keely: MB: Seb Coe says Keely Hodgkinson can be one of the all-time greats – “She’s the real deal”. But is she vulnerable in 2025?

Faith Kiypegon – Kenya, 1500 meters

Kevin Morris photo

Why Kipyegon appears unbeatable: The 31-year-old Faith Kipyegon is unquestionably the greatest women’s 1500 runner in history. The world record holder in both the 1500 (3:48.68) and mile (4:07.64) has lost a total of one 1500/mile race on the track since 2019, when she made her way back from giving birth. Since losing the season opener of the 2021 season, Kipyegon has won, counting heats, 30 straight 1500s. Add in three mile victories and she’s got a 33-race win streak in the 1500/mile on the track (she did lose one road mile).

During that win streak, she’s broken the 1500 world record on three occasions — once each in 2023, 2024, and 2025 — and set the mile world record once officially and once again unofficially. With no rivals able to challenge her in her specialty events, Nike spent millions in an effort to get Kipyegon break 4:00 in the mile in a mixed-gender exhibition in Paris earlier this year (she ran 4:06.91). A week after that, she broke the 1500 world record. Then in her last race before Worlds on August 16, she took a crack at the 32-year-old 3000 world record and ran the second fastest time in history (8:07.07).

She’s been faster than ever in 2025 and it’s hard to see her losing.

Why Kipyegon could be beaten: Weird things happen. People can get sick, food poisoning, fall, etc.

Plus, it must be remembered that the 2024 Olympic silver medallist Jessica Hull of Australia isn’t exactly chopped liver. With a 3:50.83 pb, she’s the 5th fastest woman in history. That being said, the gap between Hull and Kipyegon is so vast that Hull agreed to pace Kipyegon in that 3000 world record attempt.

LRC take: I actually think Faith, who has won six global 1500 titles, is a bigger than 90% favorite to win the race. I’d put it at 95% or higher.

Beatrice Chebet – Kenya, 10,000 meters

Why Chebet appears unbeatable: Chebet is the world record holder in the 5,000 and 10,000. She’s the reigning Olympic champion in both events as well. She’s in her prime at age 25. She has a devastating kick. Sometimes, it looks like she’s hitting turbo in a video game. Watch her destroy her biggest expected 10,000 challenger in Gudaf Tsegay, the 2022 world 5000 champ and the 2023 world 10,000 champ, in the final 200 at Xiamen earlier this year. Watch her do it again at the end of her 5000 world record at the Pre Classic.

Why Chebet could be beaten: Gudaf Tsegay isn’t exactly chopped liver. She’s the former 5000 world record holder. She’s the reigning world champ and she’s got a 3:50.30 1500 pb. There are only a few women on planet Earth with the talent to try to triple at the Olympics like Tsegay did last year (admittedly, it went horribly and she didn’t medal at all).

Also, go back and watch the end of last year’s Olympic 10,000 final. Chebet only won by 0.10 of a second over Italy’s Nadia Battocletti. Battocletti is undoubtedly having a better 2025 season than she did in 2024 as she has PR’d in the 1500 (3:58.15), 3000 (8:26.27), and 5000 (14:23.15). Given the suspicions many have about Battocletti, is it inconceivable she could take down Chebet?

LRC take: Given the fact I don’t have any injury concerns about Chebet, and there is less room for tactics to doom someone in the 10,000 as compared to the 800, I’d rank Chebet as a bigger favorite to win the Keely but less than Faith.

Who wins the titanic clash between Faith Kipyegon and Beatrice Chebet in the 5000?

In 2023, Beatrice Chebet and Faith Kipyegon squared off in the 5000 final at Worlds and Kipyegon emerged with the gold (Chebet won the bronze). In 2024, they squared off in the Olympic 5000 final and Chebet took home the gold (Faith took the silver). Who wins the grudge match in 2025?

Considering Chebet won in 2024 and is running better than ever in 2025 and considering Chebet is younger than Kipyegon (25 vs 31), Chebet deserves to be the favorite. Additionally, the schedule is different this year and I think the change helps Chebet. Last year, Kipyegon may been helped by the fact that the 5000 final was first on the docket — it was before the 10,000 and before the three rounds of the 1500. In Tokyo, the 5000 final will come at the end of the meet. Yes, Chebet will have had to run the 10,000 but Kipyegon will have had to run three rounds of the 1500, which I think is more tiring.

However, the gold by no means should be handed to Chebet. We must not forget that Kipyegon heads into Worlds after running 8:07 for 3000. She’s extremely fit. The key to the race may be pace.

When Kipyegon won gold in 2023, it was a 14:53 winning time. When Chebet won gold, it was a 14:28 race. If the winning time in Tokyo is over 14:45, Kipyegon has a very good chance. If it’s below 14:30, Chebet is a heavy favorite.

In 2022, when Tsegay won over the 22-year-old Chebet, it was a 14:46 race.

LRC take: When the staff at LetsRun was handicapping all of the events ahead of Worlds, there were divided opinions as to how big of a favorite Chebet should be in this one. I had her at 55% (Kipyegon 40%) while at least one other staffer had her at over 70%.

Who wins the women’s steeple? Could the world record go?

The three Olympic medallists from the Paris Olympics lead the 2025 world list in the steeple. They, along with NCAA record holder and champion Doris Lemngole of Kenya/Alabama, are almost certainly going to take the three medals.

2025 Steeple Descending Order List
1 8:45.25 Winfred Yavi, Bahrain
2 8:48.71 Faith Cherotich, Kenya
3 8:51.77 Peruth Chemutai, Uganda
4 8:58.15 Doris Lemngole, Kenya

Yavi, the reigning Olympic and world champ, is the world leader and has to be considered the favorite. The more I look at her CV, the more I like her chances.

After winning Olympic gold last year, Yavi just missed Beatrice Chepkoech‘s 8:44.32 world record by 0.07 in Rome. Not only is she the second-fastest woman in history, she’s been running great in 2025. She heads into Worlds after back-to-back races in the 8:40s.

There have only been six sub-8:50 women’s steeplechases ever. Yavi is the only woman with more than one (she’s done it three times) and she’s done it in back-to-back races. In the first race, she ran 8:45.25 to win Pre by more than three seconds. In the second, she ran 8:49.59 in Heusden and won by nearly 20 seconds.

Yavi also has a track record of peaking well. In each of the last two years, she ran at what the time was her seasonal best in the global final. Another seasonal best this year in Tokyo could be a world record.

Despite Yavi’s extremely impressive credentials, one can’t just hand her the gold medal. Kenya’s Cherotich has an extremely impressive CV as well. The 2022 world junior champion and 2024 Olympic bronze medallist just turned 21 in July but she’s already accomplished a lot. Since the start of 2024, she’s 4-3 head to head against Yavi. Two of those wins were narrowly achieved early this season in Doha (0.18) and Oslo (0.16). So Cherotich has shown she can beat Yavi in a tight race.

Yes, she lost to Yavi by 3+ seconds at Pre and 2.5 seconds in Paris last year, but Cherotich heads into Worlds after a dominant 13+ second win in 8:57 in the DL final over former world champ Norah Jeruto on August 28 — and Jeruto has run 8:59 this year.

Uganda’s Peruth Chemutai won Olympic gold in 2021 and silver in 2024. While she was only 3rd at Pre, her 8:51.77 sb is the fastest time she’s ever run before a global championships (her pb is 8:48.03 from last year’s Rome meet).

LRC take: The sport hasn’t seen a world record in the final of a global distance event in nearly a decade — since the 2016 Rio women’s 10,000. And that makes sense as drafting is huge and there are no pacemakers at Worlds. However, the steeple is an event where rabbits don’t normally play that big of a role as it’s hard to draft while hurdling. I fully believe the world record is going down in this event soon. I don’t think it will happen in Tokyo, but I’d be far from surprised if it does.

As for who wins, I’d give Yavi about a 50% chance of winning and put Cherotich’s odds around 35%.

Women’s marathon: Can Tigst Assefa stay red-hot or does Peres Jepchirchir win another global title in Japan?

Many times, the biggest marathon stars will skip the World Championships to chase a fast time and/or big payday at a fall major marathon. But this year’s World Championship marathon could be the best women’s marathon of the fall. On paper at least, it is the most exciting — it features four of the top seven from LetsRun.com’s 2024 world rankings. And in reality, that should be four of the top six, as one of those women is currently provisionally suspended.

Top 7 women in LRC’s 2024 world rankings (athletes running Worlds in bold)

1. Ruth Chepngetich, Kenya — Currently serving provisional suspension after testing positive for masking agent.
2. Sifan Hassan, Netherlands — Olympic champ just won Sydney Marathon on August 31.
3. Tigst Assefa, Ethiopia — 2024 Olympic silver, 2025 London champ. Entered at Worlds.
4. Hellen Obiri, Kenya — Running NYC in November.
5. Tigist Ketema, Ethiopia — Won Dubai and Berlin last year. Entered at Worlds.
6. Sutume Asefa Kebede, Ethiopia — Won last two Tokyo Marathons. Entered at Worlds.
7. Peres Jepchirchir, Kenya — Has won Valencia (2020), Olympics (2021), NYC (2021), Boston (2022), and London (2024). Entered at Worlds.

That’s a sensational field. Plus the race is at a great time for US viewers — 6:30 p.m. ET on Saturday night, shown live on CNBC and Peacock (the race was initially scheduled for 7:00 but was moved up half an hour due to heat concerns).

Just don’t expect a very fast time. Remember when World Athletics moved the Olympic marathons from Tokyo to Sapporo in 2021 out of heat concerns? We may be a month later in the calendar, but it’s still hot in Tokyo — a high of 92 degrees Fahrenheit on race day. And even though the race will begin at 7:30 a.m. local time, it is still going to be in the mid-80s during the race, and the dew point is forecast to be the mid-70s (which is very tough for running). So don’t be surprised if you see a less-accomplished name near the front (Jessica McClain, anyone?). The heat gives hope to athletes who would otherwise be unlikely to sniff the podium.

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