Projected 2021 NCAA Men’s Cross Country Championships Qualifiers (Pre-Regionals)

By LetsRun.com
November 11, 2021

On Friday, the NCAA will stage nine Division I regional meets to determine the qualifiers for next week’s NCAA Cross Country Championships in Tallahassee, Fla. You can find the full schedule, with links to results, here.

As usual, we at LetsRun.com will be projecting the qualifiers thanks to the amazing computer program of friend of LetsRun.com Bo Waggoner. Bo has a created a website – xcquals.com – that anyone can use where you can plug in the results of each regional meet and it will tell you which teams will qualify for NCAAs based on those results.

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All day on Friday, we will be running the program to provide up-to-the-minute NCAA projections based on the regional results, so be sure to keep checking LetsRun.com for the latest regional projections. The final races of the day will finish shortly after 2:30 p.m. ET, at which point we will be able to project the full field of qualifiers.

We’ve already run the program based on the current regional rankings. Below are the 31 men’s teams who would qualify should those rankings hold in the actual races on Friday.

As it stands now, Portland would be the last team going to the dance with UNC being the first team left at home.

Talk about the projections on our world-famous fan forum / messageboard: MB: Official 2021 NCAA XC Regional Championships discussion thread. Who is going to qualify? Who is going to go home devastated?

Note: Projections are based on results from this set of regular-season meets. If you see a mistake in those results or a B team that is not accounted for, email jonathangault@letsrun.com

2021 NCAA men’s XC qualifiers based on regional rankings (as of November 11)

  1. Notre Dame
  2. Wisconsin
  3. Princeton
  4. Georgetown
  5. Oklahoma State
  6. Iowa State
  7. Northern Arizona
  8. Colorado
  9. Syracuse
  10. Harvard
  11. Ole Miss
  12. Florida State
  13. Arkansas
  14. Texas
  15. Furman
  16. Wake Forest
  17. Stanford
  18. Washington
  19. Michigan
  20. BYU
  21. Tulsa
  22. Air Force
  23. Oregon
  24. Gonzaga
  25. Alabama
  26. Butler
  27. Southern Utah
  28. Boise State
  29. Utah State
  30. Colorado St.
  31. Portland

Logic

Automatically selected:

1: Notre Dame (#1 Great Lakes) is selected, has no losses to teams remaining
2: Wisconsin (#2 Great Lakes) is selected, has losses to (Wisconsin Nuttycombe) Tulsa;
3: Princeton (#1 Mid-Atlantic) is selected, has losses to (FSU Pre-Nationals) BYU; (Paul Short) North Carolina, Villanova;
4: Georgetown (#2 Mid-Atlantic) is selected, has losses to (FSU Pre-Nationals) BYU, Alabama; (Harry Groves Spiked Shoe) Michigan; (Joe Piane) Michigan, Butler, Southern Utah, Alabama, Weber State, Charlotte, NC State; (Big East Championships) Butler;
5: Oklahoma State (#1 Midwest) is selected, has no losses to teams remaining
6: Iowa State (#2 Midwest) is selected, has losses to (Griak Invite) BYU;
7: Northern Arizona (#1 Mountain) is selected, has no losses to teams remaining
8: Colorado (#2 Mountain) is selected, has no losses to teams remaining
9: Syracuse (#1 Northeast) is selected, has losses to (Wisconsin Nuttycombe) Tulsa, Air Force, Oregon, Gonzaga, Michigan, Colorado St., Utah State, Boise State, Minnesota, Portland, Southern Utah, North Carolina, Providence; (Harry Groves Spiked Shoe) Michigan;
10: Harvard (#2 Northeast) is selected, has losses to (Wisconsin Nuttycombe) Tulsa, Air Force, Oregon, Gonzaga, Michigan, Colorado St., Utah State, Boise State; (Beantown) Duke;
11: Ole Miss (#1 South) is selected, has losses to (FSU Pre-Nationals) BYU, Alabama; (Joe Piane) Michigan, Butler, Southern Utah, Alabama, Weber State;
12: Florida State (#2 South) is selected, has losses to (FSU Pre-Nationals) BYU; (ACC Championships) North Carolina; (Joe Piane) Michigan, Butler;
13: Arkansas (#1 South Central) is selected, has no losses to teams remaining
14: Texas (#2 South Central) is selected, has losses to (FSU Pre-Nationals) BYU;
15: Furman (#1 Southeast) is selected, has losses to (Wisconsin Nuttycombe) Tulsa, Air Force, Oregon, Gonzaga, Michigan;
16: Wake Forest (#2 Southeast) is selected, has losses to (FSU Pre-Nationals) BYU, Alabama, Montana State, Duke, CBU;
17: Stanford (#1 West) is selected, has no losses to teams remaining
18: Washington (#2 West) is selected, has losses to (Wisconsin Nuttycombe) Tulsa, Air Force, Oregon, Gonzaga, Michigan, Colorado St., Utah State, Boise State; 

Teams under consideration by points:

  9  Michigan

  7  BYU

  5  Tulsa, Alabama

  4  Butler, Air Force, Oregon, Gonzaga

  3  North Carolina

  1  Providence, Minnesota, Villanova

  0  North Texas, Rice, Iona, North Carolina St., Navy, North Florida

  Others with points: Boise State (3), Utah State (3), Colorado St. (3), Southern Utah (3), Weber State (2), Duke (2), Charlotte (1), NC State (1), Montana State (1), CBU (1), Portland (1)

 

19: Michigan (#3 Great Lakes) is selected, has losses to (Wisconsin Nuttycombe) Tulsa, Air Force, Oregon, Gonzaga; 

Teams under consideration by points:

  7  BYU

  6  Tulsa

  5  Air Force, Alabama, Oregon, Gonzaga

  4  Butler

  3  North Carolina

  1  Providence, Minnesota, Villanova

  0  Indiana, North Texas, Rice, Iona, North Carolina St., Navy, North Florida

  Others with points: Utah State (3), Colorado St. (3), Southern Utah (3), Boise State (3), Weber State (2), Duke (2), Charlotte (1), NC State (1), Montana State (1), CBU (1), Portland (1)

 

20: BYU (#3 Mountain) is selected, has no losses to teams remaining

Teams under consideration by points:

  6  Tulsa

  5  Air Force, Alabama, Oregon, Gonzaga

  4  Butler

  3  North Carolina, Southern Utah

  1  Providence, Minnesota, Villanova

  0  Indiana, North Texas, Rice, Iona, North Carolina St., Navy, North Florida

  Others with points: Boise State (3), Utah State (3), Colorado St. (3), Weber State (2), Duke (2), Charlotte (1), NC State (1), Montana State (1), CBU (1), Portland (1)

 

21: Tulsa (#3 Midwest) is selected, has no losses to teams remaining

Teams under consideration by points:

  5  Air Force, Alabama, Oregon, Gonzaga

  4  Butler

  3  North Carolina, Southern Utah

  1  Providence, Minnesota, Villanova

  0  Indiana, North Texas, Rice, Iona, North Carolina St., Wichita State, Navy, North Florida

  Others with points: Utah State (3), Colorado St. (3), Boise State (3), Weber State (2), Duke (2), Charlotte (1), NC State (1), Montana State (1), CBU (1), Portland (1)

  Breaking ties between Air Force, Alabama, Oregon, Gonzaga using head-to-head

  No head-to-head tiebreaker for Air Force and Alabama

  Oregon loses head-to-head vs Air Force (most recent matchup), is not selected (Dellinger, Wisconsin Nuttycombe)

  Gonzaga loses head-to-head vs Air Force (most recent matchup), is not selected (Dellinger, Wisconsin Nuttycombe)

  No head-to-head tiebreaker for Alabama and Oregon

  No head-to-head tiebreaker for Alabama and Gonzaga

  Gonzaga loses head-to-head vs Oregon, is not selected (Dellinger, Wisconsin Nuttycombe, West)

  Breaking ties between Air Force, Alabama using common opponents

  Alabama loses common opponents vs Air Force, is not selected (win percentages: 0.8571428571428571, 0.5789473684210527) (common opponents: Butler, New Mexico, Montana State, Northern Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Missouri, Wyoming, Eastern Michigan, NC State, UCLA, Furman, Michigan, Utah Valley, Weber State, Southern Utah, Purdue, BYU)

 

22: Air Force (#4 Mountain) is selected, has losses to (Dellinger) Oregon, Gonzaga; 

Teams under consideration by points:

  6  Oregon, Gonzaga

  5  Alabama

  4  Butler

  3  North Carolina, Southern Utah, Utah State

  1  Providence, Minnesota, Villanova

  0  Indiana, North Texas, Rice, Iona, North Carolina St., Wichita State, Navy, North Florida

  Others with points: Boise State (3), Colorado St. (3), Weber State (2), Duke (2), Charlotte (1), NC State (1), Montana State (1), CBU (1), Portland (1)

  Breaking ties between Oregon, Gonzaga using head-to-head

  Gonzaga loses head-to-head vs Oregon, is not selected (Dellinger, Wisconsin Nuttycombe, West)

 

23: Oregon (#3 West) is selected, has no losses to teams remaining

Teams under consideration by points:

  6  Gonzaga

  5  Alabama

  4  Butler

  3  North Carolina, Southern Utah, Utah State, Boise State

  1  Providence, Minnesota, Villanova

  0  Indiana, North Texas, Rice, Iona, North Carolina St., Wichita State, Navy, North Florida

  Others with points: Colorado St. (3), Weber State (2), Duke (2), Charlotte (1), NC State (1), Montana State (1), CBU (1), Portland (1)

 

24: Gonzaga (#4 West) is selected, has no losses to teams remaining

Teams under consideration by points:

  5  Alabama

  4  Butler

  3  North Carolina, Southern Utah, Utah State, Boise State

  1  Providence, Minnesota, Villanova, Portland

  0  Indiana, North Texas, Rice, Iona, North Carolina St., Wichita State, Navy, North Florida

  Others with points: Colorado St. (3), Weber State (2), Duke (2), Charlotte (1), NC State (1), Montana State (1), CBU (1)

 

25: Alabama (#3 South) is selected, has losses to (SEC Champs) Missouri; (Joe Piane) Butler, Southern Utah; 

Teams under consideration by points:

  5  Butler

  4  Southern Utah

  3  North Carolina, Utah State, Boise State

  1  Providence, Minnesota, Villanova, Portland

  0  Indiana, North Texas, Rice, Iona, North Carolina St., Wichita State, Navy, North Florida, Mid. Tenn. State

  Others with points: Colorado St. (3), Weber State (2), Duke (2), Charlotte (1), NC State (1), Montana State (1), CBU (1), Missouri (1)

 

26: Butler (#4 Great Lakes) is selected, has losses to (Wisconsin Nuttycombe) Colorado St., Utah State, Boise State, Minnesota, Portland, Southern Utah, North Carolina, Providence, Indiana; 

Teams under consideration by points:

  5  Southern Utah

  4  North Carolina, Utah State, Boise State

  2  Providence, Minnesota, Portland

  1  Indiana, Villanova

  0  Michigan State, North Texas, Rice, Iona, North Carolina St., Wichita State, Navy, North Florida, Mid. Tenn. State

  Others with points: Colorado St. (4), Weber State (2), Duke (2), Charlotte (1), NC State (1), Montana State (1), CBU (1), Missouri (1)

 

27: Southern Utah (#5 Mountain) is selected, has losses to (FSU Open) Charleston Southern, Eastern Michigan; (Wisconsin Nuttycombe) Colorado St., Utah State, Boise State, Minnesota, Portland; 

Teams under consideration by points:

  5  Utah State, Colorado St., Boise State

  4  North Carolina

  3  Minnesota, Portland

  2  Providence

  1  Indiana, Villanova

  0  Michigan State, North Texas, Rice, Iona, North Carolina St., Wichita State, Navy, North Florida, Mid. Tenn. State

  Others with points: Weber State (2), Duke (2), Charleston Southern (1), Charlotte (1), NC State (1), Montana State (1), CBU (1), Eastern Michigan (1), Missouri (1)

  Breaking ties between Utah State, Colorado St., Boise State using head-to-head

  Colorado St. loses head-to-head vs Utah State, is not selected (Wisconsin Nuttycombe, Mountain West Champs, Mountain)

  Utah State loses head-to-head vs Boise State (most recent matchup), is not selected (Wisconsin Nuttycombe, Mountain West Champs)

  Colorado St. loses head-to-head vs Boise State, is not selected (Dellinger, Wisconsin Nuttycombe, Mountain West Champs)

 

28: Boise State (#5 West) is selected, has losses to (Dellinger) Portland; (Wisconsin Nuttycombe) Colorado St., Utah State; 

Teams under consideration by points:

  6  Utah State, Colorado St.

  4  North Carolina, Portland

  3  Minnesota

  2  Providence

  1  Indiana, Villanova, CBU

  0  Michigan State, North Texas, Rice, Iona, North Carolina St., Wichita State, Navy, North Florida, Mid. Tenn. State

  Others with points: Weber State (2), Duke (2), Charleston Southern (1), Charlotte (1), NC State (1), Montana State (1), Missouri (1), Eastern Michigan (1)

  Breaking ties between Utah State, Colorado St. using head-to-head

  Colorado St. loses head-to-head vs Utah State, is not selected (Wisconsin Nuttycombe, Mountain West Champs, Mountain)

 

29: Utah State (#6 Mountain) is selected, has losses to (Wisconsin Nuttycombe) Colorado St.; (Paul Short) North Carolina, Villanova; 

Teams under consideration by points:

  7  Colorado St.

  5  North Carolina

  4  Portland

  3  Minnesota

  2  Providence, Villanova

  1  Indiana, Montana State, CBU

  0  Michigan State, North Texas, Rice, Iona, North Carolina St., Wichita State, Navy, North Florida, Mid. Tenn. State

  Others with points: Weber State (2), Duke (2), Charleston Southern (1), Charlotte (1), NC State (1), Eastern Michigan (1), Missouri (1)

 

30: Colorado St. (#7 Mountain) is selected, has losses to (Dellinger) Portland; 

Teams under consideration by points:

  5  North Carolina, Portland

  3  Minnesota

  2  Providence, Villanova

  1  Indiana, Montana State

  0  North Texas, North Florida

  Others with points: Weber State (2), Duke (2), Charleston Southern (1), Charlotte (1), NC State (1), CBU (1), Missouri (1), Eastern Michigan (1)

  Breaking ties between North Carolina, Portland using head-to-head

  North Carolina loses head-to-head vs Portland, is not selected (Wisconsin Nuttycombe)

 

31: Portland (#6 West) is selected, has losses to (Wisconsin Nuttycombe) Minnesota;



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