Find Out Which Women’s Teams Are Going to the Big Dance: We Project the 2018 NCAA XC Championships Field

By LetsRun.com
November 8, 2018

Friday, November 9, is one of the most important days on the American cross country calendar. It is the day of NCAA regionals, when 31 men’s teams and 31 women’s teams will punch their tickets to the Big Dance in Madison, Wisconsin, on November 17.

Eighteen of those spots for each gender will go to the teams that finish in the top two of each of the nine regions. The other 13 at-large spots are determined by a complicated system based on wins over teams already in the NCAA field.

Officially, the NCAA will not announce the 13 at-large qualifiers until Saturday, but thanks to former Duke runner Bo Waggoner and his computer program, we can project which teams will make it to Madison as soon as the final regional result is in on Friday.

But why wait until then?

We’ve run Waggoner’s program already, and can reveal the projected fields if the latest USTFCCCA regional rankings hold. Obviously not every result in every region will go to form, but this is a good starting point to get a sense of where things stand right now.

Will New Mexico be celebrating a third title in four years in Madison?

Below, we’ve listed the projected women’s qualifiers (auto-qualifiers in bold), followed by the full selection process.

Two of the most important teams on Friday are Texas and SMU. Right now, Texas is projected to finish second in the South Central Region and SMU third. But if they flip positions, it results in a drastically different field (since Texas has lost to a lot of teams, those teams would not be awarded a point if Texas finished third).

Here are the teams that would make it if Texas finishes second (as projected): Texas, UCLA, Oregon State, Northern Arizona, Air Force.

And here are the teams that would make it instead of SMU finishes second: SMU, Dartmouth, Eastern Kentucky, West Virginia, Princeton.

Check back on Friday as we’ll be running the program all day as results come in to give up-to-the-minute projections. We should be able to project the full field within 5 minutes of the final regional being over.

Talk about our projections on our world famous messageboard. MB: Official 2018 NCAA D1 XC Regional Discussion Thread – Who is going to the big dance?

Projected NCAA qualifiers (if USTFCCCA regional rankings hold)

Automatic qualifiers in bold

   1 Michigan
   2 Michigan St
   3 Villanova
   4 Penn St
   5 Iowa St
   6 Oklahoma St
   7 New Mexico
   8 Colorado
   9 Columbia
  10 Syracuse
  11 Arkansas
  12 Texas
  13 Florida
  14 Ole Miss
  15 NC State
  16 Furman
  17 Oregon
  18 Boise St
  19 Wisconsin
  20 Indiana
  21 BYU
  22 Notre Dame
  23 Stanford
  24 Minnesota
  25 Washington
  26 Portland
  27 Southern Utah
  28 UCLA
  29 Oregon St
  30 NAU
  31 Air Force

Rationale for selections

Automatically selected:
1: Michigan (#1 Great Lakes PROJECTED) is selected, has no losses to teams remaining
2: Michigan St (#2 Great Lakes PROJECTED) is selected, has losses to (Nuttycombe) Wisconsin, Indiana; 
3: Villanova (#1 Mid-Atlantic PROJECTED) is selected, has no losses to teams remaining
4: Penn St (#2 Mid-Atlantic PROJECTED) is selected, has losses to (Big 10 Championships) Wisconsin; (Nuttycombe) Wisconsin, Indiana, Portland; 
5: Iowa St (#1 Midwest PROJECTED) is selected, has losses to (Nuttycombe) Wisconsin, Indiana; 
6: Oklahoma St (#2 Midwest PROJECTED) is selected, has losses to (Nuttycombe) Wisconsin, Indiana, Portland, Southern Utah; 
7: New Mexico (#1 Mountain PROJECTED) is selected, has no losses to teams remaining
8: Colorado (#2 Mountain PROJECTED) is selected, has no losses to teams remaining
9: Columbia (#1 Northeast PROJECTED) is selected, has losses to (Iona Paddy Doyle) Indiana; (Nuttycombe) Wisconsin, Indiana; 
10: Syracuse (#2 Northeast PROJECTED) is selected, has losses to (Battle in Beantown) Georgia Tech, Utah, Minnesota, Dartmouth, Brown, Wake Forest, UVA; (ACC Championships) Notre Dame; (Pre-Nationals Cardinal Race) Indiana, BYU, Portland, Minnesota; 
11: Arkansas (#1 South Central PROJECTED) is selected, has no losses to teams remaining
12: Texas (#2 South Central PROJECTED) is selected, has losses to (Arturo Barrios Invite) Vanderbilt; (Nuttycombe) Wisconsin, Indiana, Portland, Southern Utah, Oregon St, Air Force, Iona, NAU, Providence, Colorado St, Purdue; (Big 12 Championship) Kansas, West Virginia; 
13: Florida (#1 South PROJECTED) is selected, has no losses to teams remaining
14: Ole Miss (#2 South PROJECTED) is selected, has losses to (Pre-Nationals Cardinal Race) Indiana, BYU, Portland, Minnesota, NAU, Colorado B Team, UCLA; 
15: NC State (#1 Southeast PROJECTED) is selected, has losses to (Pre-Nationals Cardinal Race) Indiana, BYU; (Nuttycombe) Wisconsin, Indiana; 
16: Furman (#2 Southeast PROJECTED) is selected, has losses to (Pre-Nationals White Race) Stanford, Notre Dame, Washington, Wisconsin; (Joe Piane Notre Dame Invite) BYU; 
17: Oregon (#1 West PROJECTED) is selected, has no losses to teams remaining
18: Boise St (#2 West PROJECTED) is selected, has no losses to teams remaining

Teams under consideration by points:
  11 Indiana
  9  Wisconsin
  4  BYU
  3  Minnesota
  2  Southern Utah
  1  Dartmouth, West Virginia, Stanford, Washington
  0  Eastern Kentucky, Va Tech, SMU, Rice, Yale, Florida St, Georgia, Princeton, Northwestern
  Others with points: Portland (5), Notre Dame (2), NAU (2), Providence (1), Vanderbilt (1), Purdue (1), Air Force (1), Colorado St (1), Brown (1), Colorado B Team (1), UCLA (1), Utah (1), Wake Forest (1), Georgia Tech (1), UVA (1), Oregon St (1), Iona (1), Kansas (1)

Indiana not selected with push (gets in later on their own)

19: Wisconsin (#3 Great Lakes PROJECTED) is selected, has losses to (Pre-Nationals White Race) Stanford, Notre Dame, Washington; 
Teams under consideration by points:
  11 Indiana
  4  BYU
  3  Minnesota, Notre Dame
  2  Southern Utah, Stanford, Washington
  1  Dartmouth, West Virginia
  0  Eastern Kentucky, Va Tech, SMU, Rice, Yale, Florida St, Georgia, Princeton, Northwestern
  Others with points: Portland (5), NAU (2), Providence (1), Vanderbilt (1), Purdue (1), Air Force (1), Colorado St (1), Brown (1), Colorado B Team (1), UCLA (1), Utah (1), Wake Forest (1), Georgia Tech (1), UVA (1), Oregon St (1), Iona (1), Kansas (1)

20: Indiana (#4 Great Lakes PROJECTED) is selected, has no losses to teams remaining
Teams under consideration by points:
  4  BYU
  3  Minnesota, Notre Dame
  2  Southern Utah, Stanford, Washington
  1  Dartmouth, West Virginia
  0  Eastern Kentucky, Va Tech, SMU, Rice, Yale, Florida St, Georgia, Princeton, Northwestern, Eastern Michigan
  Others with points: Portland (5), NAU (2), Oregon St (1), Providence (1), Vanderbilt (1), Purdue (1), Air Force (1), Kansas (1), Colorado St (1), Colorado B Team (1), UCLA (1), Iona (1), Utah (1), Wake Forest (1), Brown (1), Georgia Tech (1), UVA (1)

21: BYU (#3 Mountain PROJECTED) is selected, has no losses to teams remaining
Teams under consideration by points:
  3  Minnesota, Notre Dame
  2  Southern Utah, NAU, Stanford, Washington
  1  Dartmouth, West Virginia
  0  Eastern Kentucky, Va Tech, SMU, Rice, Yale, Florida St, Georgia, Princeton, Northwestern, Eastern Michigan
  Others with points: Portland (5), Providence (1), Vanderbilt (1), Purdue (1), Air Force (1), Colorado St (1), Brown (1), Colorado B Team (1), UCLA (1), Utah (1), Wake Forest (1), Georgia Tech (1), UVA (1), Oregon St (1), Iona (1), Kansas (1)
  Breaking ties between Minnesota, Notre Dame using head-to-head
  No head-to-head tiebreaker for Minnesota and Notre Dame
  Breaking ties between Minnesota, Notre Dame using common opponents
  Minnesota loses common opponents vs Notre Dame, is not selected (win percentages: 0.7333333333333333, 0.7142857142857143) (common opponents: Purdue, Duke, BYU, Georgia Tech, UNC, Syracuse, Dayton, UVA, Michigan St, Iowa, Wake Forest, Indiana, Florida St, Northwestern, Miami OH, Kansas, Michigan, NC State, Eastern Michigan, Boston College, Ohio St, Wisconsin)

22: Notre Dame (#5 Great Lakes PROJECTED) is selected, has losses to (Pre-Nationals White Race) Stanford; (Joe Piane Notre Dame Invite) Florida St; 
Teams under consideration by points:
  3  Minnesota, Stanford
  2  Southern Utah, NAU, Washington
  1  Dartmouth, Florida St, West Virginia
  0  Eastern Kentucky, Va Tech, SMU, Rice, Yale, Georgia, Princeton, Northwestern, Eastern Michigan, Ohio St
  Others with points: Portland (5), Oregon St (1), Providence (1), Vanderbilt (1), Purdue (1), Air Force (1), Kansas (1), Colorado St (1), Colorado B Team (1), UCLA (1), Iona (1), Utah (1), Wake Forest (1), Brown (1), Georgia Tech (1), UVA (1)
  Breaking ties between Minnesota, Stanford using head-to-head
  No head-to-head tiebreaker for Minnesota and Stanford
  Breaking ties between Minnesota, Stanford using common opponents
  Minnesota loses common opponents vs Stanford, is not selected (win percentages: 0.8235294117647058, 0.6153846153846154) (common opponents: Purdue, UCLA, San Jose St, Kansas, Utah, Arizona, Portland, Cal, Eastern Michigan, Michigan, Wisconsin, Oregon, Wake Forest)

23: Stanford (#3 West PROJECTED) is selected, has no losses to teams remaining
Teams under consideration by points:
  5  Portland
  3  Minnesota
  2  Southern Utah, NAU, Washington
  1  Dartmouth, Florida St, West Virginia
  0  Eastern Kentucky, Va Tech, SMU, Rice, Yale, Georgia, Princeton, Northwestern, Eastern Michigan, Ohio St
  Others with points: Providence (1), Vanderbilt (1), Purdue (1), Air Force (1), Colorado St (1), Brown (1), Colorado B Team (1), UCLA (1), Utah (1), Wake Forest (1), Georgia Tech (1), UVA (1), Oregon St (1), Iona (1), Kansas (1)

Portland not selected with push (gets in later on their own)

24: Minnesota (#3 Midwest PROJECTED) is selected, has losses to (Battle in Beantown) Georgia Tech, Utah; (Pre-Nationals Cardinal Race) Portland; 
Teams under consideration by points:
  2  Southern Utah, NAU, Washington
  1  Dartmouth, Florida St, West Virginia, Kansas
  0  Eastern Kentucky, Va Tech, SMU, Rice, Yale, Georgia, Princeton, Northwestern, Eastern Michigan, Ohio St
  Others with points: Portland (6), Utah (2), Georgia Tech (2), Providence (1), Vanderbilt (1), Purdue (1), Air Force (1), Colorado St (1), Brown (1), Colorado B Team (1), UCLA (1), Wake Forest (1), UVA (1), Oregon St (1), Iona (1)
  Breaking ties between Southern Utah, NAU, Washington using head-to-head
  NAU loses head-to-head vs Southern Utah, is not selected (Nuttycombe, Big Sky Championships, Mountain PROJECTED)
  Southern Utah loses head-to-head vs Washington, is not selected (Pre-Nationals White Race)
  No head-to-head tiebreaker for NAU and Washington

25: Washington (#4 West PROJECTED) is selected, has losses to (Sundodger Invite) Oregon St; (Stanford Invite) Adams St; 
Teams under consideration by points:
  6  Portland
  2  Southern Utah, NAU
  1  Dartmouth, Florida St, West Virginia, Kansas, UCLA
  0  Eastern Kentucky, Va Tech, SMU, Rice, Yale, Georgia, Princeton, Northwestern, Eastern Michigan, Ohio St
  Others with points: Oregon St (2), Utah (2), Georgia Tech (2), Providence (1), Vanderbilt (1), Purdue (1), Air Force (1), Adams St (1), Colorado St (1), Colorado B Team (1), Iona (1), Wake Forest (1), Brown (1), UVA (1)

26: Portland (#5 West PROJECTED) is selected, has no losses to teams remaining
Teams under consideration by points:
  2  Southern Utah, NAU, Oregon St
  1  Dartmouth, Florida St, West Virginia, Kansas, UCLA
  0  Eastern Kentucky, Va Tech, SMU, Rice, Yale, Georgia, Princeton, Northwestern, Eastern Michigan, Ohio St
  Others with points: Utah (2), Georgia Tech (2), Providence (1), Vanderbilt (1), Purdue (1), Air Force (1), Adams St (1), Colorado St (1), Brown (1), Colorado B Team (1), Wake Forest (1), UVA (1), Iona (1)
  Breaking ties between Southern Utah, NAU, Oregon St using head-to-head
  NAU loses head-to-head vs Southern Utah, is not selected (Nuttycombe, Big Sky Championships, Mountain PROJECTED)
  Oregon St loses head-to-head vs Southern Utah, is not selected (Nuttycombe)
  NAU loses head-to-head vs Oregon St, is not selected (Nuttycombe)

27: Southern Utah (#4 Mountain PROJECTED) is selected, has no losses to teams remaining
Teams under consideration by points:
  2  NAU, Oregon St
  1  Dartmouth, Florida St, Air Force, West Virginia, Kansas, UCLA
  0  Eastern Kentucky, Va Tech, SMU, Rice, Yale, Georgia, Princeton, Northwestern, Eastern Michigan, Ohio St
  Others with points: Utah (2), Georgia Tech (2), Providence (1), Vanderbilt (1), Purdue (1), Adams St (1), Colorado St (1), Colorado B Team (1), Iona (1), Wake Forest (1), Brown (1), UVA (1)
  Breaking ties between NAU, Oregon St using head-to-head
  NAU loses head-to-head vs Oregon St, is not selected (Nuttycombe)

28: UCLA (#6 West PROJECTED) is selected, gives no points (pushed in)
29: Oregon St (#7 West PROJECTED) is selected, has no losses to teams remaining
Teams under consideration by points:
  2  NAU
  1  Dartmouth, Florida St, Air Force, West Virginia, Kansas
  0  Eastern Kentucky, Va Tech, SMU, Rice, Yale, Georgia, Princeton, Northwestern, Eastern Michigan, Ohio St, Cal Poly
  Others with points: Utah (2), Georgia Tech (2), Providence (1), Vanderbilt (1), Purdue (1), Adams St (1), Colorado St (1), Colorado B Team (1), Iona (1), Wake Forest (1), Brown (1), UVA (1)

30: NAU (#5 Mountain PROJECTED) is selected, has losses to (Nuttycombe) Air Force, Iona; 
Teams under consideration by points:
  2  Air Force
  1  Dartmouth, Florida St, West Virginia
  0  Eastern Kentucky, SMU, Northwestern, Eastern Michigan, Cal Poly
  Others with points: Utah (2), Georgia Tech (2), Iona (2), Providence (1), Vanderbilt (1), Purdue (1), Adams St (1), Colorado St (1), Brown (1), Colorado B Team (1), Wake Forest (1), UVA (1), Kansas (1)

31: Air Force (#6 Mountain PROJECTED) is selected, has losses to (Pre-Nationals White Race) Georgia;