Who’s In? Who’s Out? 2016 NCAA Women’s Regional Projections Assuming Everything Goes According To Form

By LetsRun.com
November 9, 2016

Below you will find who is projected to make the 31-team women’s field for the 2016 NCAA Cross Country Championships, to be held on November 19 in Terre Haute, Ind., assuming the NCAA Regional results go according to form and mimic the USTFCCCA’s Regional Rankings.

We’ve put these projections together using a program designed by former Duke runner/Harvard PhD candidate Bo Waggoner. Unlike NCAA basketball, where a committee picks the at-large teams, in cross country, the NCAA relies on a formula for calculating at-large teams (the formula is based on regular-season victories over teams that qualify for NCAAs automatically).

We’ve listed the 18 automatic qualifiers (the top two from each of the nine regions) and then the 13 at-large teams, with the logic behind each team’s selection.

You can view the projected men’s qualifiers here. Again, we’re making these projections BEFORE the regionals have been run.

If you think there is an error or that we’ve left out a team/result/B team, let us know at letsrun@letsrun.com.

Women’s teams

Auto qualifiers

  1 michigan
  2 eastern michigan
  3 penn state
  4 villanova
  5 iowa state
  6 oklahoma state
  7 colorado
  8 new mexico
  9 providence
 10 harvard
 11 mississippi
 12 mississippi state
 13 arkansas
 14 smu
 15 nc state
 16 william and mary
 17 washington
 18 stanford

At-large qualifiers

 19 portland
 20 oregon
 21 san francisco
 22 baylor
 23 utah
 24 byu
 25 yale
 26 notre dame
 27 michigan state
 28 california
 29 ucla
 30 penn
 31 west virginia

Logic

Automatically selected:
1: michigan is selected, has losses to (pre_nats) oregon; (roy_griak) portland, michigan state, boise state;
2: eastern michigan is selected, has losses to (pre_nats) oregon, portland;
3: penn state is selected, has losses to (roy_griak) portland, michigan state;
4: villanova is selected, has losses to (wisconsin_invite) baylor, san francisco, utah, notre dame, byu, yale; (paul_short) yale, georgetown, west virginia, penn, florida;
5: iowa state is selected, has losses to (roy_griak) portland, michigan state, boise state, san francisco, ucla, minnesota, ohio state, arizona, furman, colorado state, duke; (wisconsin_invite) baylor, san francisco, utah;
6: oklahoma state is selected, has losses to (cowboy_jamboree) tulsa;
7: colorado is selected, has no losses to teams remaining
8: new mexico is selected, has no losses to teams remaining
9: providence is selected, has no losses to teams remaining
10: harvard is selected, has losses to (hyp) yale; (wisconsin_invite) baylor, san francisco, utah, notre dame, byu, yale, ucla, penn; (u_washington_invite) oregon;
11: mississippi is selected, has losses to (joe_piane) baylor, utah;
12: mississippi state is selected, has losses to (secs) missouri; (pre_nats) oregon, portland, california; (roy_griak) portland, michigan state, boise state, san francisco, ucla; (commodore) ohio state, vanderbilt, butler, missouri;
13: arkansas is selected, has losses to (pre_nats) oregon, portland;
14: smu is selected, has losses to (wisconsin_invite) baylor, san francisco, utah, notre dame, byu, yale, ucla, penn, minnesota; (panorama_farms) byu;
15: nc state is selected, has no losses to teams remaining
16: william and mary is selected, has losses to (penn_state_natl_open) west virginia, texas, cornell, wyoming; (panorama_farms) byu, syracuse, virginia;
17: washington is selected, has no losses to teams remaining
18: stanford is selected, has losses to (pre_nats) oregon, portland;

Teams under consideration: portland (8), oregon (6), utah (5), byu (5), yale (5), baylor (5), michigan state (4), notre dame (3), penn (3), west virginia (2), minnesota (2), missouri (2), syracuse (1), vanderbilt (1), rice (0), kentucky (0), eastern kentucky (0), alabama (0),
Others with points: san francisco (6), ucla (4), boise state (3), ohio state (2), colorado state (1), cornell (1), wyoming (1), texas (1), tulsa (1), virginia (1), furman (1), arizona (1), california (1), florida (1), duke (1), butler (1), georgetown (1),
19: portland is selected, has losses to (pre_nats) oregon;

Teams under consideration: oregon (7), san francisco (6), utah (5), byu (5), yale (5), baylor (5), michigan state (4), notre dame (3), penn (3), west virginia (2), minnesota (2), missouri (2), syracuse (1), vanderbilt (1), rice (0), kentucky (0), eastern kentucky (0), alabama (0),
Others with points: ucla (4), boise state (3), ohio state (2), cornell (1), wyoming (1), texas (1), tulsa (1), virginia (1), furman (1), arizona (1), colorado state (1), california (1), florida (1), duke (1), butler (1), georgetown (1),
20: oregon is selected, has no losses to teams remaining

Teams under consideration: san francisco (6), utah (5), byu (5), yale (5), baylor (5), michigan state (4), notre dame (3), penn (3), west virginia (2), minnesota (2), missouri (2), syracuse (1), california (1), vanderbilt (1), rice (0), kentucky (0), eastern kentucky (0), alabama (0),
Others with points: ucla (4), boise state (3), ohio state (2), colorado state (1), cornell (1), wyoming (1), texas (1), tulsa (1), virginia (1), furman (1), arizona (1), florida (1), duke (1), butler (1), georgetown (1),
21: san francisco is selected, has losses to (roy_griak) michigan state, boise state; (wisconsin_invite) baylor; (wccs) byu;

Teams under consideration: byu (6), baylor (6), utah (5), yale (5), michigan state (5), ucla (4), notre dame (3), penn (3), west virginia (2), minnesota (2), missouri (2), syracuse (1), california (1), vanderbilt (1), rice (0), kentucky (0), eastern kentucky (0), alabama (0),
Others with points: boise state (4), ohio state (2), cornell (1), wyoming (1), texas (1), tulsa (1), virginia (1), furman (1), arizona (1), colorado state (1), florida (1), duke (1), butler (1), georgetown (1),
baylor wins head-to-head tiebreaker over byu (relevant meets: wisconsin_invite)
22: baylor is selected, has losses to (big_12s) west virginia, oklahoma; (texas_am_invite) rice;

Teams under consideration: byu (6), utah (5), yale (5), michigan state (5), ucla (4), notre dame (3), penn (3), west virginia (3), minnesota (2), missouri (2), syracuse (1), rice (1), texas (1), california (1), vanderbilt (1), kentucky (0), eastern kentucky (0), alabama (0),
Others with points: boise state (4), ohio state (2), colorado state (1), cornell (1), wyoming (1), tulsa (1), virginia (1), furman (1), oklahoma (1), arizona (1), florida (1), duke (1), butler (1), georgetown (1),
byu not selected with push (gets in later on their own)
utah wins head-to-head tiebreaker over yale (relevant meets: wisconsin_invite)
utah wins head-to-head tiebreaker over michigan state (relevant meets: wisconsin_invite)
yale wins head-to-head tiebreaker over michigan state (relevant meets: wisconsin_invite)
23: utah is selected, has no losses to teams remaining

Teams under consideration: byu (6), yale (5), michigan state (5), ucla (4), notre dame (3), penn (3), west virginia (3), minnesota (2), missouri (2), syracuse (1), rice (1), texas (1), california (1), vanderbilt (1), air force (0), kentucky (0), eastern kentucky (0), alabama (0),
Others with points: boise state (4), ohio state (2), colorado state (1), cornell (1), wyoming (1), tulsa (1), virginia (1), furman (1), oklahoma (1), arizona (1), florida (1), duke (1), butler (1), georgetown (1),
24: byu is selected, has losses to (wisconsin_invite) notre dame;

Teams under consideration: yale (5), michigan state (5), ucla (4), notre dame (4), penn (3), west virginia (3), minnesota (2), missouri (2), colorado state (1), syracuse (1), rice (1), texas (1), california (1), vanderbilt (1), air force (0), kentucky (0), eastern kentucky (0), alabama (0),
Others with points: boise state (4), ohio state (2), cornell (1), wyoming (1), tulsa (1), virginia (1), furman (1), arizona (1), oklahoma (1), florida (1), duke (1), butler (1), georgetown (1),
yale wins head-to-head tiebreaker over michigan state (relevant meets: wisconsin_invite)
25: yale is selected, has losses to (wisconsin_invite) notre dame;

Teams under consideration: notre dame (5), michigan state (5), ucla (4), penn (3), west virginia (3), minnesota (2), missouri (2), colorado state (1), syracuse (1), rice (1), texas (1), california (1), vanderbilt (1), air force (0), brown (0), kentucky (0), eastern kentucky (0), alabama (0),
Others with points: boise state (4), ohio state (2), cornell (1), wyoming (1), tulsa (1), virginia (1), furman (1), oklahoma (1), arizona (1), florida (1), duke (1), butler (1), georgetown (1),
notre dame wins head-to-head tiebreaker over michigan state (relevant meets: wisconsin_invite, greatlakes)
26: notre dame is selected, has no losses to teams remaining

Teams under consideration: michigan state (5), ucla (4), penn (3), west virginia (3), ohio state (2), minnesota (2), missouri (2), colorado state (1), syracuse (1), rice (1), texas (1), california (1), vanderbilt (1), air force (0), brown (0), kentucky (0), eastern kentucky (0), alabama (0),
Others with points: boise state (4), cornell (1), wyoming (1), tulsa (1), virginia (1), furman (1), arizona (1), oklahoma (1), florida (1), duke (1), butler (1), georgetown (1),
27: michigan state is selected, has losses to (wisconsin_invite) ucla, penn, minnesota, boise state;

Teams under consideration: ucla (5), penn (4), west virginia (3), minnesota (3), ohio state (2), missouri (2), colorado state (1), syracuse (1), rice (1), texas (1), california (1), butler (1), vanderbilt (1), air force (0), brown (0), kentucky (0), eastern kentucky (0), alabama (0),
Others with points: boise state (5), cornell (1), wyoming (1), tulsa (1), virginia (1), furman (1), oklahoma (1), arizona (1), florida (1), duke (1), georgetown (1),
28: california is selected, gives no points (pushed in)
29: ucla is selected, has losses to (roy_griak) boise state;

Teams under consideration: penn (4), west virginia (3), minnesota (3), ohio state (2), missouri (2), colorado state (1), syracuse (1), rice (1), texas (1), butler (1), vanderbilt (1), air force (0), brown (0), cal poly (0), kentucky (0), eastern kentucky (0), alabama (0),
Others with points: boise state (6), cornell (1), wyoming (1), tulsa (1), virginia (1), furman (1), oklahoma (1), arizona (1), florida (1), duke (1), georgetown (1),
30: penn is selected, has losses to (paul_short) georgetown, west virginia;

Teams under consideration: west virginia (4), minnesota (3), ohio state (2), syracuse (1), rice (1), vanderbilt (1), air force (0), cal poly (0), kentucky (0),
Others with points: boise state (6), georgetown (2), missouri (2), cornell (1), wyoming (1), texas (1), tulsa (1), virginia (1), furman (1), arizona (1), oklahoma (1), colorado state (1), florida (1), duke (1), butler (1),
31: west virginia is selected, has losses to (paul_short) georgetown;