Organizers Re-Measure 2013 World Cross-Country Course And It Matches Up Almost Exactly With John Kellogg’s Estimation
It’s Official: John Kellogg Is A Genius II
by LetsRun.com
April 5, 2013
LetsRun.com was started for two main reasons. 1) We didn’t like the way distance running was being covered as largely a recreational/fitness activity and wanted to see the sport covered as an elite sport. 2) To spread the training gospel/wisdom of John Kellogg (JK) – the man who coached LetsRun.com co-founders Robert and Weldon Johnson in high school and post-collegiately.
Over the years, we’ve told you that JK is a genius and it was confirmed when he was the lone person in the world who saw the possibility of the 2:03:02 and 2:03:06s in Boston before the race. Afterwards, the media said things like, “That’s incredible. No one could have predicted that.” False. JK basically did and we praised him at the time.
MB: Official John Kellogg Is a Genius Thread (He Predicted The 2:03 on Boston)
Well that was two years ago and it’s time to anoint JK’s statistical ability as being at the genius level yet again.
At the 2013 World Cross-Country championships, there is no doubt that the winning performance of junior winner Hagos Gebrehiwet, a man with a 12:47 5,000 PR, was incredibly impressive. That being said, afterwards JK said there is no way that a human being could run a 21:04 for 8,000 on a muddy, hilly cross-country course, as that equates to a 26:39 10,000 and cross-country courses are often minutes slower than what people run on a track.
Instead, JK, a man who never left the couch in Ithaca, NY, said that the course had to be WAY short. He estimated it to be 7,460 meters, meaning Hagos ran the equivalent of a 28:40 10,000 (which is still very good given how tough the course was).
Well, a few days after this, the IAAF confirmed that the course was short. In our article on the admission, we didn’t point out, though, that their new estimation of the distance was way off of what JK had said it was. JK had said the junior boys race was most likely 7,460 meters long, whereas the IAAF had said it was still 7,830. That’s nearly a 400-meter discrepancy, so you are talking about the difference between JK saying Hagos ran a 28:40 equivalent and the IAAF saying he ran more like 27:40.
Well, guess what?
We got another email this morning saying that race organizers went out and re-measured the course and it confirms JK was totally right on the money.
It reads as follows:
Please find that on the 23rd of March the Technical Delegate shorten the loop and the course was remeasured after the Champs.
The length of the loop was 1830m.
So the distances were as below:
Junior women – 5.658m (1st – 3:09.3/km)
Junior men – 7.488 (2:48.8)
Women – 7.488 (3:15.5)
Men – 11.148 (2:56.3)
We couldn’t make this stuff up. How could a man who was 4,150 miles away analyze the stats and determine within 28 meters – that’s just about 4-5 seconds of running – how long a course was in Bydgoszcz, Poland? Because he’s a genius statistician – that’s how.
Distance Of 2013 World Cross-Country Course |
||||
|
JK |
IAAF After Race |
IAAF |
Difference JK & Re-Measure |
Jr. Girls “6k” |
5,640 |
5,880 |
5,658 |
18 meters |
Jr. Boys/Sr. Women “8k” |
7,460 |
7,830 |
7,488 |
28 meters |
Sr. Men “12k” |
11,100 |
11,670 |
11,148 |
48 meters |
More: *Official John Kellogg Is a Genius Thread (He Predicted The 2:03 on Boston)
*World XC Course Was Officially Short
*The 2013 World Cross-Country Course Had To Be Short