London Marathon is in 54 days: here are 54 profiles, one per day

Nah it’s me versus the world and I’m gonna cancel this race altogether.

I mistakenly thought Brigid was unbeatable over the half at RAK. Kosgei was under the old WR but beaten into second. The classic distance brings a whole new level of invincibility from Kosgei. Chicago last year was the crescendo: travelled between 25 and 30k in only 15.45, running away from the other women and passing some elite men. Nobody goes with her when Brigid hits the go button. Ranked one and aged 26, Kosgei won both here and Chicago last year. In 2018 was second here then won Chicago in 2.18.35.

Aussiestatman wrote:

They say it’s Kipchoge v Bekele. Even though their times are only two seconds apart, they are poles apart in my opinion. Kipchoge to win. Won here last year in 2.02.37 and ran 1.59.41 at the Ineos exhibition.

As I have said elsewhere, I don’t think the biggest contest here is at the top of the podium. For me, second v third will be closer. The quote I have used is: why would Geremew be content with bronze when he has tasted from the silver chalice?

Aussiestatman wrote:

They say it’s Kipchoge v Bekele. Even though their times are only two seconds apart, they are poles apart in my opinion. Kipchoge to win. Won here last year in 2.02.37 and ran 1.59.41 at the Ineos exhibition.

I must completely diagree with your opinions. The Ineos exhibition is worthless and irrelevant. Bekele run in Berlin was much more impressive than that.

Bekele is more talented than Kipchoge and has been taking his training very seriously, apparently having a better schedule than for his Berlin race and being for the moment injury free. There is nothing to indicate that Bekele will not come in top shape. More talented , with a better finish and a better killer mindset.

Bekele for the win.

Aussiestatman wrote:

They say it’s Kipchoge v Bekele. Even though their times are only two seconds apart, they are poles apart in my opinion. Kipchoge to win. Won here last year in 2.02.37 and ran 1.59.41 at the Ineos exhibition.

Following is my mini bio written this time last year about the coming London marathon:

Kipchoge must win it. He is the G.O.A.T. No doubt. World Record Holder, owner of two other of the top 8 times of all-time. Undefeated in London. Winner of many more majors. What else can be said? After winning in Berlin, breaking the WR, he said he was interested in winning another marathon in 2.02.something so he could be the only owner of a 2,01, 2.02, 2.03, etc. Before him, no one had run sub 61.00 for either half of a marathon. In Berlin he ran the second half in 60.33 after a 61.06 opening half. enough superlatives? He is 34 years old and has won two marathons, mostly majors, in 4 of the last 5 years.

The race probably will be canceled and after a crash out Brexit there won't be any races in the UK anymore.

Aussiestatman wrote:

Aussiestatman wrote:

They say it’s Kipchoge v Bekele. Even though their times are only two seconds apart, they are poles apart in my opinion. Kipchoge to win. Won here last year in 2.02.37 and ran 1.59.41 at the Ineos exhibition.

As I have said elsewhere, I don’t think the biggest contest here is at the top of the podium. For me, second v third will be closer. The quote I have used is: why would Geremew be content with bronze when he has tasted from the silver chalice?

So I am going with Mosinet Geremew second, 28yo and ranked 5. Second here last year in 2.02.55, also second at the worlds. In 2018 won Dubai in 2.04.00 and second in Chicago.

Kipchoge has ran:

1:59:40

2:00:25

2:01:39

2:02:37

2:03:05

2:04:00

2:05:00

2:08:44

So he is missing 2:06 and 2:07. Maybe one day he will get those too!

You are consistently wrong .

Greg Zou Ming wrote:

You are consistently wrong .

London was the one place where I was right on the money last year in the men’s. Billed as Kipchoge v Farah, I had three Ethiopians finishing between them.

Ruth C is an obvious choice for runner up. A head to head between the top two women will be enthralling.

Aussiestatman wrote:

Aussiestatman wrote:

As I have said elsewhere, I don’t think the biggest contest here is at the top of the podium. For me, second v third will be closer. The quote I have used is: why would Geremew be content with bronze when he has tasted from the silver chalice?

So I am going with Mosinet Geremew second, 28yo and ranked 5. Second here last year in 2.02.55, also second at the worlds. In 2018 won Dubai in 2.04.00 and second in Chicago.

Following is my profile from London last year:

My choice for fourth place is Mosinet Geremew, who is 27yo and ranked 4. He is warming up for it today in a half marathon in Lisbon. Last year he won Dubai in 2.04.00 and was second in Chicago. Previous year he was 2nd in Xiamen, China and 3rd in Berlin. He has won the half marathon in Yangzhou four years in a row from 2015-2018, holding the Chinese all-comers record of 59.52 set in the first win.

Aussiestatman wrote:

Ruth C is an obvious choice for runner up. A head to head between the top two women will be enthralling.

Ruth is 26yo and now ranked 3. Ranking dropped from 2 to 3 this week not because Salpeter ran faster in Tokyo than Ruth did in Dubai last year; but rather that Salpeter's second best time from Prague last year is way better than Ruth ran at Worlds. Unfair, Salpeter collapsed at worlds when she and others couldn't compete with Ruth in such oppressive conditions. Here is my bio from my year end thread:

So second woman this year is Ruth Chepngetich, 25yo and ranked 2. Won Dubai in 2.17.08 and you couldn’t really say won the worlds; it was more survived the conditions and crossed the line first.

GenkiDama wrote:

Aussiestatman wrote:

They say it’s Kipchoge v Bekele. Even though their times are only two seconds apart, they are poles apart in my opinion. Kipchoge to win. Won here last year in 2.02.37 and ran 1.59.41 at the Ineos exhibition.

I must completely diagree with your opinions. The Ineos exhibition is worthless and irrelevant. Bekele run in Berlin was much more impressive than that.

Bekele is more talented than Kipchoge and has been taking his training very seriously, apparently having a better schedule than for his Berlin race and being for the moment injury free. There is nothing to indicate that Bekele will not come in top shape. More talented , with a better finish and a better killer mindset.

Bekele for the win.

Kenenisa Bekele is my pick for third. He is 37yo and ranked 10. Won Berlin last year when I had him pegged fourth, so I underestimated his ability and training then. His time of 2.01.41 was only two seconds off the WR. His previous best was 2.03.03 when winning in the same city three years prior.

Third lady may be Roza Dereje, 22yo and ranked 8. Very impressive in winning Valencia in December in 2.18.30. Couldn’t finish like many others at the worlds. Third here in the spring in 2.20.51. In 2018 won Dubai and second in Chicago.

Aussiestatman wrote:

Third lady may be Roza Dereje, 22yo and ranked 8. Very impressive in winning Valencia in December in 2.18.30. Couldn’t finish like many others at the worlds. Third here in the spring in 2.20.51. In 2018 won Dubai and second in Chicago.

Last year's profile here, did better than my expectations:

A bit of a gap in quality after the top 5 women, next is 21yo Roza Dereje. Hard to fathom her being ranked 3 in the world. No objective opinion would rank her there on the strength of a win in Dubai and second in Chicago. Roza won the Barca half marathon last month in 66.01. In August 2017, won Shanghai taking 2.34 off her PB. In October 2016 won two marathons

in the month in Denmark and China. Letsrun considered her 2018 to be the 4th best overall, one above Keitany.

Aussiestatman wrote:

Third lady may be Roza Dereje, 22yo and ranked 8. Very impressive in winning Valencia in December in 2.18.30. Couldn’t finish like many others at the worlds. Third here in the spring in 2.20.51. In 2018 won Dubai and second in Chicago.

Here is my take on the running in Valencia:

won the second deepest run all year in Valencia in 2.18.30. Halfway in 69.18 alongside Birhane and Vivian, then Azmera Abreha caught them by 35k, making 4 together. Birhane led by 4 sec at 40k and Vivian had been dropped. Roza though had enough left to go past Birhane and hold off Azmera Abreha.

Next to complete the course may be Mule Wasihun, 26yo and ranked 7. Third here last year in 2.03.16 then couldn't finish at the World Champs. Was 16th at halfway in 66.22 but was gone by 25k. The London performance was so good that it accounted for Mule as the eighth choice in my year end rankings. In 2018 was second in Amsterdam in 2.04.37.

Fourth lady will most probably be Ashete Bekere, turns 32 before the event and ranked 6. Won Rotterdam last April in 2.22.55 then crushed Berlin in 2.20.14. Won Valencia in 2018 in 2.21.14. Ran a sub 2.24 as far back as 2015.