marathon based on 18 mile long run

Nice run. You should be able to crack 3 hours with that given you had a solid negative split and closed in 6:28.

Keep in mind at 18 miles you’re only entering the station and have yet to board the pain train.... 8.2 miles to go.

Good luck!

Do you think 2:50 is reasonable? I'm not sure if thats too fast given its my first marathon, and I dont wan't to get humbled

You aren't training enough. If your longest run is merely 18 miles then you're gonna crash, burn and probably drop out at mile 22. If you don't have the endurance to run long runs exceeding 26 miles then you shouldn't even attempt a marathon. Hopefully, you have significantly longer runs planned for the rest of your training.

The last half of the marathon, physically and mentally, doesn't start until mile 20.

Good luck.

Yes, but don't start any faster than that. Surge the last 10k if you feel good.

I've run 15 marathons. My best results were after training that included a few 22 mile runs that felt good, with a MP mile or two at the end.

One of my biggest challenges during the race is mental - around mile 17 to 18 I start to think that there's too many miles left to hold this pace - what if I slow a little and still can't hold it - what if I just walk for a minute, would that really hurt my time - I can't believe I'm not going to BQ after all that training - etc, etc. I've blown up a few times when I doubt my readiness.

Hopefully your training can push the pain point back to mile 22 or so.

Co-Flounder wrote:

You aren't training enough. If your longest run is merely 18 miles then you're gonna crash, burn and probably drop out at mile 22. If you don't have the endurance to run long runs exceeding 26 miles then you shouldn't even attempt a marathon. Hopefully, you have significantly longer runs planned for the rest of your training.

The last half of the marathon, physically and mentally, doesn't start until mile 20.

Good luck.

Experiences differ. For my only marathon I did nothing longer than 18 and managed 3:01 (damn!) on a hilly course with no hint of hitting the wall. Last 10k (uphill) in 44mins.

You could well be fine if you don't get too greedy.

I have 2 months to go and am planning 3 20 milers and a 22. never heard someone say 70 - 80 mpw isnt enough, and I know people who have gone faster off of less

With those kind of expectations, you'd be better off following the Hanson Plan. You'll nail even splits and have a better race. Screw the 22 milers.

Lots of good advice already. Given what we know at the moment, I would say right around 6:40 is your safe marathon pace. If there is such a thing as safe. Maybe I should say that 6:40 looks like a solid pace for you to start at and then pick it up in the final 10k if you can. If you execute that well, low 2:50s is doable.

You might be able to go under 2:50. But given this is your first marathon, I don't know. It kind of depends if you want to increase your chances of having a solid race where you can run evenly, or get that super sweet time IF you don't massively blow up. If you feel like living dangerously, go for 6:25's out of the gate.

However, you've got almost 9 weeks (is it Illinois?), so there is time to dial in your pace some more. Add some 10-12 mile sections of MP in those upcoming long runs and see how they go. And do some of those on flat routes. Hills are definitely tougher; however, they can also break things up and make it easier to find new grooves. Jamming on the same cadence and same pace for hours is its own challenge.

Marathonprediction00 wrote:

I have 2 months to go and am planning 3 20 milers and a 22. never heard someone say 70 - 80 mpw isnt enough, and I know people who have gone faster off of less

Your mileage is definitely enough. I think that plan seems solid, you probably don't need four 20+ mile runs. 3 would be fine and allow you to maybe split them up.

If you go out in 6:35-6:40, I think you should do great in your marathon. You look to be in low 2:50s shape.

2:50 yes

As a beginner, what really helped me was 4 20-milers, 1 21-miler, and a bunch of 16-18s.

I ran 61 mpw twice and averaged 51-60 in the bulk of my training in the summer. Started off at 40-45 mpw, which isn't much, but I also didn't want to get hurt.

Ran 3:24 in slightly warm conditions at Cbus 2019--but in hindsight I also would have done more quad/glute/hip training.

Thank yo - I am running the New Jersey Marathon on April 26.

I plan on going out at ~6:40 and picking it up at the half. My goal is sub 2:53 for NYC and Boston.