Last weekend I ran a uptempo long run, running 15 miles at 5:55 pace at 5000’ on a completely flat loop. It was pretty tough, but my eyes weren’t rolling in the back of my head by the end.
Predictions for Boston in ~7 weeks?
Last weekend I ran a uptempo long run, running 15 miles at 5:55 pace at 5000’ on a completely flat loop. It was pretty tough, but my eyes weren’t rolling in the back of my head by the end.
Predictions for Boston in ~7 weeks?
2:40
pretty tough could mean faster than MP, but "uptempo LR" implies slower than MP
15 at 5:55, converted to sea level, about 5:43/mi or 2:29/2:30 pace.
so that's your easy guess. maybe add time for the boston course itself
Seriously man? Why do you gotta crush dreams?
Where do you get that altitude conversion? I was thinking more about maybe 5 seconds a mile going from 5000’ to sea level
About a month before Boston 2017, I did 20 miles at 5:54 on a largely flat course (though with some traffic stops). Ran 2:33, which felt like about the maximum of where my fitness was. I think you're in the 2:30-2:35 range, but hard to tell without more.
I’m guessing from your post that you haven’t run many marathons and that this is your first attempt at Boston. Boston ain’t flat and is very hard to get it right the first time. Lots of people go out too fast, beat up their quads on the downhills, then eat it in Newton.
But maybe you will prove me wrong. For what it’s worth I’ve run 2:41 at Boston but have never run 15 at 5:55 (I could probably do that on tapered legs, but not during a marathon build). Good luck.
Now try 20 miles @ 5;55/mi , get back to us again after that.
For what it’s worth, I ran 2:30 last year at Boston in an even-paced effort (nothing went wrong), and here were my long-fast runs during that build, all at sea level:
17 @ 5:53
20 @ 6:07 (last 10 @ 5:49, with tail wind)
15 @ 6:02 (12 @ 5:53)
20 @ 6:13 (last 10 @ 6:00)
16 with 10 @ 5:36 (Cherry Blossom)
Plenty of other 20 milers, tempos, 8-minute pace shuffles, etc., so it’s hard to tell where one run fits into the big picture. And of course a lot can go wrong at Boston.
Depends on how many burritos you eat on your taper.
Depends on the weather and if you have bouncy shoes or not. Anywhere from 2:25 to 2:50 seems possible.
Kinda confused by the premise -- was this a planned 15 @ MP or did you just get rolling during the long run. If it's somewhere in between & at altitude, MP is maybe a touch faster. It also matters how used to altitude you are, what the route you ran on was like compared to Boston, and overall training -- mileage, other workouts, marathon experience.
Imma say you have low-2:30s potential. If you've never broken 2:40, maybe you start off at 6:00 pace through halfway and ratchet it down. Boston starts at 21. Have legs there and let it rip. Good luck.