A True Dark Horse - Luke Puskedra?

I respect your opinion and Puskedra's talent level has always been there. For me it is either him or someone like Parker Stinson but not both.

I think it is still Korir's race to lose. The only one who can beat him is Rupp but I think Rupp is done after mile 18 or so.

Runner's World reported he had retired? Unless there's more to it that I haven't seen.

https://www.runnersworld.com/runners-stories/a26556684/luke-puskedra-retiring-at-29/

He won't

he is unretired

I was pointing out here months ago that Luke was dropping hints he'd decided to take a serious crack at the Trials --and that ignoring him as a potential factor was pretty dumb (as pretty much every analysis here has done).

His IG shows he looks super-lean and fit, sounds optimistic and confident, and logged a 22-mi long run 2 weeks back at sub-5:15 pace.

No idea just how fit he is, or what his chances are, but he's one of the guys I'll be fascinated to watch next week.

The fact that NO ONE has paid him any attention makes the potential drama even better.

Exactly. Literally no one even mentions him. That is partly because he snuck our of retirement, he's not sponsored (as far as I know) and is simply running the trials on his own. I have not seen a training log and as far as I know he has not done any serious races. So it's really hard to know what type of shape he is on. However, I do know that he is not one to half-ass anything. I really doubt he would be at the trials if he did not think he had a chance.

Just because you've run something fast years ago doesn't mean you are going to run something fast now. How people have been running in the past 12 months is a much better indicator. And nothing he's done in the past 12 months, or 24 months, or 36 months that would make a reasonable person think he'll be top 3. I'd put that 10% that he is in the top 10. His marathon PB is barely top 10 for the people in this race, and he hasn't touched that fitness level in years.

Rupp, Korir, Kebenei, Ward are the most likely at this point. I'd say only 30% chance someone not in those four names makes the team.

Rupp is a 2:06? guy, would have finished sub 2:10 if he had a little more recovery time before Chicago. It's reasonable to think he could be at least 2:08 fitness now on a reasonable course this far post-surgery. Korir is a 2:07 guy, sub 60 half marathoner. Kebenei has only run one serious half, and was right next to Korir at Pittsburgh. Ran 46:39 on challenging 10 mile course. No one in the field has run those types of times. On the next level Ward has been the most consistent guy over the past 12 months, beating a lot of the top guys at NYC half marathon last spring, then running 2:09 at Boston, and running a half PR at Houston last month beating a bunch of the top guys again. Fauble was looking good until his not so great Fall, so he is not my selected top 4 discussion.

You've got like 10 guys that split up that 70% chance of the top 3 not being Rupp/Korir/Kebenei/Ward... So they have an average of 7% of making the team. They could be Fischer, Brogan Austin, Stinson, Jerell Mock, Jacob Riley, Abdi Abdiraham, Matt McDonald, Bernard Lagat, and maybe a couple other names, but I wouldn't put Puskedra in that list of 10, because like I said he hasn't done anything lately.

Fair points made. However, that is what describes a dark horse. The horse is dark because we just don't know. I do not expect Puskedra to make top 3 at all, but it's an interesting story line.

There are other far shots that could be interesting, like CJ Albertson. His training is a bit...unorthodox.

This. Even with Abdi & Lagat (&Ritz) people are too much in love with things that happened too long ago.

As usual for the standard quality of 'analysis' we find on LR, you guys *completely* miss the point.

Luke's a big talent. He's a better talent than the large majority of 'second-tier' guys being discussed as potential factors in this race.

He's a got a set of half-mar and full-mar performances from a few years back that's clearly *superior* to those of most of these guys.

He ran 2:10:24 *before* the shoes that appear to make folks 2 minutes faster.

He's only 29.

He's already shown the ability to get badly out of shape, and then get back to national-caliber shape. (And he didn't get nearly as fat and out of shape this time as the first time.)

He's been healthy and motivated, and appears to have rediscovered his love of running for the first time in a long time.

He seems to have gotten in a really solid marathon build-up over the last 5 months or so.

We know he was fit enough to run a 1:05 half way back in November --which appears to have been much less than an all-out effort-- and that he's had 3 more months of solid training since.

We know that he seems to be happy and confident with how it's gone.

We know he did a 22-mile long-run 2 weeks ago, over rolling hills, at 5:14 pace.

All the above says it's *plausible* that Luke could be back to peak shape --or at least pretty close-- and that *his* peak shape might be better than the vast majority of guys in the field.

Does that make him a favorite for top 3? Of course not. It sure as hell *does* make him a *very* interesting dark-horse --just as the OP said.

His 'ceiling' is arguably higher than that of all but 2 or 3 guys in this field.

If you don't think he's worth watching here, you're probably an idiot.

I agree with this dude. Crazy to ignore talent and the ceilings of different runners and blindly map their public times of the past year as if you know nothing else.

Bekele could break his leg and cross train behind closed doors for 4 months with one 15:00 time trial a month in, and I would still count on him when he shows up for a race over a 14:00 college guy.

I for one would love to see Luke Puskedra go top 3. Remember when he held onto ..was it Chelenga in that NCAA XC final. It was like 2011. Man what a brutal race. IMHO, you can't meet a more wonderful young guy, like Luke. May the Distance Gods look favorably upon him!

7000 Altitude wrote:

. . . you can't meet a more wonderful young guy, like Luke. May the Distance Gods look favorably upon him!

Agreed. I love the contrast between Luke's reaction to 4th place and the reaction of Dr. Brown's "patient".

Luke:

Patient number 1:

Exactly my point. We really have no idea what kind of shape he is in. However, we do know he has the raw potential. The fact that he has been out of the scene and training mostly incognito makes him the 'dark' horse. I find it an interesting story line. At the very least it makes the the race more interesting. It's also important to realize that this is not a PR dick measuring contest. The trails is not a time trial, it's a race. It will be tactical. Someone like Luke could make a move at an interesting time and blow up the field (and himself).

Exactly my point. We really have no idea what kind of shape he is in. However, we do know he has the raw potential. The fact that he has been out of the scene and training mostly incognito makes him the 'dark' horse. I find it an interesting story line. At the very least it makes the the race more interesting. It's also important to realize that this is not a PR dick measuring contest. The trails is not a time trial, it's a race. It will be tactical. Someone like Luke could make a move at an interesting time and blow up the field (and himself).

He's not a dark horse, he's a properly identified underdog.

Story on atlanta2020trials.com website.

It looks to me like he's just going to relive the experience, it doesn't seem like he's taken training incredibly seriously. I doubt he'll be in contention for a spot on the team, but I hope I'm wrong.

Top 3. Let's go!