Just because you've run something fast years ago doesn't mean you are going to run something fast now. How people have been running in the past 12 months is a much better indicator. And nothing he's done in the past 12 months, or 24 months, or 36 months that would make a reasonable person think he'll be top 3. I'd put that 10% that he is in the top 10. His marathon PB is barely top 10 for the people in this race, and he hasn't touched that fitness level in years.
Rupp, Korir, Kebenei, Ward are the most likely at this point. I'd say only 30% chance someone not in those four names makes the team.
Rupp is a 2:06? guy, would have finished sub 2:10 if he had a little more recovery time before Chicago. It's reasonable to think he could be at least 2:08 fitness now on a reasonable course this far post-surgery. Korir is a 2:07 guy, sub 60 half marathoner. Kebenei has only run one serious half, and was right next to Korir at Pittsburgh. Ran 46:39 on challenging 10 mile course. No one in the field has run those types of times. On the next level Ward has been the most consistent guy over the past 12 months, beating a lot of the top guys at NYC half marathon last spring, then running 2:09 at Boston, and running a half PR at Houston last month beating a bunch of the top guys again. Fauble was looking good until his not so great Fall, so he is not my selected top 4 discussion.
You've got like 10 guys that split up that 70% chance of the top 3 not being Rupp/Korir/Kebenei/Ward... So they have an average of 7% of making the team. They could be Fischer, Brogan Austin, Stinson, Jerell Mock, Jacob Riley, Abdi Abdiraham, Matt McDonald, Bernard Lagat, and maybe a couple other names, but I wouldn't put Puskedra in that list of 10, because like I said he hasn't done anything lately.