Last year’s winners in both men and women’s events could repeat. Birhanu Legese is 25yo and ranked equal second. Winning time here of 2.04.48 after passing 15k in 43.56 in the cold and rain. Was two minutes quicker in Berlin, second behind Bekele. IMO, those two performances last year place him sixth among his peers.
Ruti Aga, 26yo and ranked 5, won here last year in 2.20.40. DNF at the Worlds in the humidity then third at New York in 2.25.51, 37 days after. At the end of 2018 was ranked sixth by this site for her performances that year. Aga’s breakthrough was in Berlin in 2017, taking a full four minutes off her previous best.
John Wesley Harding wrote:
I agree that you’ve ID’d the two favorites on paper, with Valary Jemeli Aiyabei very close to Aga in terms of betting odds after her fast time in Frankfurt.
However, I’m going a little higher risk/higher reward on my predictions: I’ll take Titus Ekiru (2:04) and Senbere Teferi (2:19) for the wins.
Ekiru and Jemeli coming up next for me, Teferi not in my top 5 women. Do you think Molla will actually commit and finish this time?
John Wesley Harding wrote:
Aussiestatman wrote:
Ekiru and Jemeli coming up next for me, Teferi not in my top 5 women. Do you think Molla will actually commit and finish this time?
I can only hope that he shows up ready to rock another 2:03.
Teferi is unproven at the marathon, but looking at her results over the years she’s been continually moving up in distance and finding greater success as she does so. She ran 14:23 in 2018 to make her top-10 AT at 5,000 but was only 4th in that race. She was still ahead of Hassan in the lead pack with 1500 to run in the 10k at Worlds until Gidey & Hassan pulled their ridiculousness and Teferi settled for 6th—and she won halfs in 65:xx in both RAK and Valencia last year. It seems like her entering this race means she’s targeting the Olympic marathon team, and if she’s committed and has any marathon aptitude she’ll be tough to drop.
I don’t believe Teferi will be able to go with Tigist Girma when she puts the foot down.
Aussiestatman wrote:
I don’t believe Teferi will be able to go with Tigist Girma when she puts the foot down.
This is a great sign for Senbere, after all your predictions are always way off lol. I don't think anyone will stand a chance vs Aiyabei however, her 2:19 (going out at WR pace and running huge parts of the race alone) in Frankfurt was way more impressive than anything the other women in the field have ever done, including Ruti Aga.
Will the Tokyo marathon be canceled? They have already canceled the Hong Kong and Gaoxiong marathon.
John Wesley Harding wrote:
Aussiestatman wrote:
Ekiru and Jemeli coming up next for me, Teferi not in my top 5 women. Do you think Molla will actually commit and finish this time?
I can only hope that he shows up ready to rock another 2:03.
Teferi is unproven at the marathon, but looking at her results over the years she’s been continually moving up in distance and finding greater success as she does so. She ran 14:23 in 2018 to make her top-10 AT at 5,000 but was only 4th in that race. She was still ahead of Hassan in the lead pack with 1500 to run in the 10k at Worlds until Gidey & Hassan pulled their ridiculousness and Teferi settled for 6th—and she won halfs in 65:xx in both RAK and Valencia last year. It seems like her entering this race means she’s targeting the Olympic marathon team, and if she’s committed and has any marathon aptitude she’ll be tough to drop.
The World Athletics preview mentions Tirfi Tsegaye, the legend, but she wasn’t on the official website’s list. In or out?
Aussiestatman wrote:
John Wesley Harding wrote:
I agree that you’ve ID’d the two favorites on paper, with Valary Jemeli Aiyabei very close to Aga in terms of betting odds after her fast time in Frankfurt.
However, I’m going a little higher risk/higher reward on my predictions: I’ll take Titus Ekiru (2:04) and Senbere Teferi (2:19) for the wins.
Ekiru and Jemeli coming up next for me, Teferi not in my top 5 women. Do you think Molla will actually commit and finish this time?
Titus Ekiru is 28yo and surprisingly in only ranked 67. That ranking will rocket up if he can run a low 2.03 and finish second here. Last April he won in Milan in 2.04.46 then beat Lawrence Cherono’s course record to win Honolulu in 2.08.00 in December. I ranked him just outside the world top 20 on those performances. Also won Honolulu the previous year 1.01 slower.
Aussiestatman wrote:
John Wesley Harding wrote:
I can only hope that he shows up ready to rock another 2:03.
Teferi is unproven at the marathon, but looking at her results over the years she’s been continually moving up in distance and finding greater success as she does so. She ran 14:23 in 2018 to make her top-10 AT at 5,000 but was only 4th in that race. She was still ahead of Hassan in the lead pack with 1500 to run in the 10k at Worlds until Gidey & Hassan pulled their ridiculousness and Teferi settled for 6th—and she won halfs in 65:xx in both RAK and Valencia last year. It seems like her entering this race means she’s targeting the Olympic marathon team, and if she’s committed and has any marathon aptitude she’ll be tough to drop.
The World Athletics preview mentions Tirfi Tsegaye, the legend, but she wasn’t on the official website’s list. In or out?
Tirfi listed by Track and Field News as one of the top ten women’s marathoners of the last decade.
dodge ball wrote:
Will the Tokyo marathon be canceled? They have already canceled the Hong Kong and Gaoxiong marathon.
You do realise China and Japan are separate countries with a big sea in between them.
Aussiestatman wrote:
John Wesley Harding wrote:
I agree that you’ve ID’d the two favorites on paper, with Valary Jemeli Aiyabei very close to Aga in terms of betting odds after her fast time in Frankfurt.
However, I’m going a little higher risk/higher reward on my predictions: I’ll take Titus Ekiru (2:04) and Senbere Teferi (2:19) for the wins.
Ekiru and Jemeli coming up next for me, Teferi not in my top 5 women. Do you think Molla will actually commit and finish this time?
Valary Jemeli is 28yo and ranked 3. She was third in Nagoya in 2.23.01 and won Frankfurt in October in 2.19.10 with incredible splits early and 67.42 at halfway. Jemeli was once third in Berlin in 2017, 2.20.53. Her performances last year caused me to place her tenth in my year end top 20. But that assessment was before Valencia where I thought Azmera Abreha was better.
Third should be Sisay Lemma, 29yo and ranked 13. Such a turn around from an ordinary Boston 30th in 2.22.08 to third behind Bekele in Berlin in 2.03.36. Started 2018 with a fifth in Dubai in 2.04.08. Also has a Chicago fourth in 2017.
Next woman might be Birhane Dibaba, 26yo and ranked 36. I knew she was building to something big when third in Valencia last December in 2.18.46. Dibaba was ninth in London in April then won the Copenhagen half in September in 65.57. Ran here five consecutive years 2014-18, only six women finished ahead of her across those marathons. In the last of those, Birhane dipped nine seconds under 2.20 in winning.
Next to finish may be Bedan Karoki, 29yo and ranked 29. Second here last year in 2.06.48 and fourth in Chicago, 2.05.53. Those results prompted me to rank him 17th in my year end top 20.
Fourth lady will, IMO, be Tigist Girma, born 93 and ranked 17. Second in Amsterdam in October in 2.19.52, taking 6.42 off her PB. Her best two 5k splits that day were both 16.22: from 5-10k and from 35 to 40k. Won Ottawa in May by 25 sec. I am the world’s biggest Tigist fan. Have been since before Ottawa when I thought she would win even though legend Tirfi Tsegaye was slated to make her long awaited return.
Fifth to complete the course could be Amos Kipruto, 27yo and ranked 17. Fourth in Prague in 2.06.46 then bronze medal at the Worlds in October. In 2018 was third here and second in Berlin: both sub 2.07. PB of 2.05.43 from fifth in Amsterdam 2017.
Next woman should be Lonah Salpeter, 31yo and ranked 16. Following is my profile from Kolkata 25k where she did't start.
Before the w/champs I thought Ruth would win and two of the Ethiopians would battle with salpeter for the minor medals. The Ethiopian girls were underwhelming: retiring early in the high humidity. Lonah gave it absolutely everything until her body actually gave out and she collapsed. Don’t know how one month to the day later she could run another marathon and she must have been a little underdone (or maybe overdone) to come 4th in Frankfurt. At 15k in Doha, Lonah was 6th: 55sec behind the lead pack. By 25k she had cut it to 16 sec but 5k later it was 49 sec and she was fifth. Gone before 35k.
Turns 31 before the event and is ranked 7 as a road runner. Busy? Here are some highlights:
10 mar half Ostia won 66.40
6 Apr half Prague second 66.09
5 May marathon Prague won 2.19.46
1 sept 10k Tilburg won 30.05
27 sept marathon w/champs-collapsed
27 Oct marathon f/furt fourth 2.23.11
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