I'll provide my amateur opinion here, but I might have a unique perspective - I might be the only person here with the true ~50/50 lifetime experience between running (training) on treadmill and outside.
I am 44 and I picked up running in Dec 2018 with the goal of breaking a 5 min mile. I ran ~1000 miles in 2019 consistently alternating between treadmill and outside (hilly) road using the same paces.
About a month ago I ran a 5:00.8 outdoor mile and two weeks later I ran a 4:48 treadmill mile. Both were all out efforts. My fitness was slightly better (probably a few sec better) in the latter run. I shared details about my sub-5 journey in a separate topic that you can easily find here.
So, here's my perspective. I am trying to be as specific as I can, but this is all based on my personal perceptions and is obviously far from science.
Treadmill advantages:
- Perfect pacing. Very important for me (I have no pacing experience). Certainly worth something for a mile, where you need to hit equal splits and mentally reassure yourself that you're applying the right amount of effort. Saves at least 5 sec for me.
- Lack of air resistance and perfectly flat & straight "road". Running with the same speed feels easier on treadmill initially. For some reason my cadence is 5 spm higher on treadmill with the same paces. I guess I adapted to perfectly flat surface and soft bouncing and better feedback on my body movements. Saves 5-10 sec for me.
Treadmill disadvantages.
- Lack of oxygen and overheat. The outside wind drags you but it also cools you down and provides more oxygen. You start feeling that difference by the second half of the mile. The penalty may be up to 5 sec vs outside running.
- Contained environment. The lack of space and the risk on falling off makes it much more difficult to push hard in the last quarter and squeeze the best time out of you. You have to hold back some energy on the treadmill to remain fully aware of the environment. Essentially you cannot run at 100% effort. The penalty may be 2-3 sec.
- No control of the pace. I guess it shouldn't be a problem for a mile, but would be for positive or negative split runs, or if you miscalculated your ideal pace.
Altogether, I feel that treadmill gives me about 5-10 sec advantage, but half of that come from the ideal pacing.