Like the title says; I have an kid who ran a 38:30 10km. I’m doing my best not to overtrain him and such. But I’m wondering what we can expect from him at high school. Then in college, etc.
To run this time so young, would you say there’s some talent involved?
Q: What can you expect in the future from an 11-year old who ran a 38:30 10km?
A: I definitely see a sub-38:30 in their future
The athlete definitely has talent, but there is no way to know what his PRs will look like 10 years from now. He may even choose to not run at all.
But as a guess, as a senior in HS, the athlete will run 4:20-4:30 for the mile and 15:30-16:30 for 5k.
You can expect a lifetime of parental and coach pressure to achieve his 'potential' followed ultimately by disappointment, over training and quitting the sport.
Stating the obvious, brah wrote:
Q: What can you expect in the future from an 11-year old who ran a 38:30 10km?
A: I definitely see a sub-38:30 in their future
It's impossible to predict. Meanwhile, it's way too early for him to be running 10Ks. A better idea would be to have him play soccer or baseball until his HS school freshman year. There is no benifit from an early start and if he competes in middle school he should never run farther than 3 miles. Competing in middle school is relatively new and there have hundreds of great runners that waited until HS to start competing. Ryun began his Sophomore year.
If he's training already, even if it's not much, then no doubt he'll be excellent by 14 but others will catch up to him later in HS. My district had a kid like this, a former age group phenom who never broke 4:30 and 9:40. If you told me that he does other sports doesn't train but ran a 10k with you then I'd be very impressed and would say you've got a future D1 prospect.
He'll likely be a top xc and track runner in the state in hs. Right now let him have fun with the sport, don't limit his mileage, but don't suggest hundred mile weeks or anything. Let him develop naturally. Its way too early to worry about what he could potentially run in hs.
Are you making your son race 10Ks and Marathons on the road? You are pounding your son into the ground. You are more than likely increasing the probability of your son quitting XC and T&F before high school graduation. I had a high school teammate who was a 39:xx 12 year old. He raced 5Ks, 10Ks and Marathons on the road from eleven years old. His legs and feet were beat up and damaged by high school.
Rod Dixon started runnig with his older brother for 20-30 min 3 times a week at age 12 so it’s alright to start younger.
Let him do some other sports but just keep him active and subtly build his aerobic side up through other activities.
I hope he goes on to do great things :)
Rod Dixon was a teenage 800m/880 yard runner.
Stress fractures, eating disorders, giving up running in college early.
Probably also not much speed endurance, since it needs to be developed on the basis of speed first of all, and a coach or parent or whatever you are who is focussing on 10ks at the age of 11 is unlikely to know how to develop the speed which is best nurtured through exposure to middle distance track events.
I also agree with the posters suggesting that the kid take part in a number of different sports at this age, rather than focussing too narrowly.
11 is too young to be running long distance road races, other than at a very easy pace.
about the same as can be expected from an 11-year-old who gets an A- on his math test.
Who the fvck knows.
This is like an 11 year old getting a 810 on the SAT. I mean it's great for an 11 year old I guess but what does it really tell us? they are kinda smart or have been prepped for it. Not much else.
He'll be fine as long as you observe the recommended rest interval for that age: 3 years
It's not the fact that he ran a 10k that bothers me if it's a one-time thing as much as the fact that you're on here salivating over the time and asking about potential 10 years down road.
As a reference, I ran a 10k in 38:38 as a 12 year old and just ran 38:00 as a 50 year old.
In between, I ran 30:43 on the track (age 20) and 31:12 on the roads (age 24).
i have seen these people all too often at local 5k meets. the truth if, we know nothing about how well he'll do later in life. maybe he'll break 30 or maybe he'll not even be able to break 34. you have no idea until after he hits puberty
A 12 year old in town ran 36 minutes for 10k several times that summer. He just finished his junior year of HS running 10:30 for 3200.
Are you making ... wrote:
Rod Dixon was a teenage 800m/880 yard runner.
Yeah I know Dixon was an 800 yard guy but it's a similar concept (except 5.5 something miles more) but there's plenty of people who started running earlier and got better because of it like heck take the Kenyan and Ethiopian lifestyle.
But the difference is trying to replicate the conditions here. For them some kids have to run to school but forcing your own kid when they have the means to drive to school could cause some resent so it's not like you can fully replicate it.
But doing some running and not burning the kid out would ensure that this 38:30 10k kid grows stronger and doesn't think about breaking age-group world records but just having fun.
I will add that since you mentioned Rod was an 800 guy. It's not bad to try and get him to really work on shorter stuff right now. Get the kid fast and strong and you'll open him up to the possibility of a sub 2:00 800 early in high school. Which is around 1:59-4:25-9:23 and that 2 mile converts to around 15:20 and 31:51. Don't limit him but get him fast and strong, those mid-distance gains help with the longer stuff down the road.
The odds are that he never runs faster than 4:45.
ex-runner wrote:
You can expect a lifetime of parental and coach pressure to achieve his 'potential' followed ultimately by disappointment, over training and quitting the sport.
No reason this kid would follow in your footsteps.