Sub 2:50 Marathon

Well your mile and two are better than mine. But I got well below 2:50 several times. Do the 20+ run once or. Week, maybe, as well as whatever else...you have plenty on the ball physically. When the long run becomes pretty effortless you may get more confident that you can crank out more and faster miles than you thought.

You got this.

I think you have 2:50 in the bag if you get a handful of decent long runs and some marathon-pace runs. You and I have similar times over the shorter distances and I've run sub 2:45 with less-than-idea prep (for example average 55 miles per week for 8-10 weeks before the race). Which is a higher priority for you, indoor or marathon?

Maybe alternate weekly tempos, one week with higher volume @ 6:15-6:20 and the next week lower volume/intervals @ 5:50ish. Regular long runs are key over the last 12 weeks. Try to get several of 20+ and several at 18 or so. If you can fit it in, a midweek medium long run of 12-15 is a beneficial additional endurance stimulus. Try to include a couple specific confidence boosters like 13 miles at your marathon goal pace (I usually do one at 8 weeks out and then again at 3 weeks out to feel that sweet fitness gainz), 22 with the last 4 at 6:15ish, 20 with first 10 miles at 7ish, last 10 miles (or 8, whatever feels doable without being a race effort) at goal pace...

Whatever you do, it's better to be undercooked than overcooked going into the race. You have the fitness and talent to crush 2:50. Just be consistent and get some long runs in. Good luck.

This depends on how much of a distance oriented runner you are. A marathon is a long way and should never be underestimated. I would see how your body responds to a couple 2 hr+ runs, with running at marathon pace an hour/hour and half in. If you are determined and can throw down a 20 miler near marathon pace without too much of a problem, then 2:50 is a good goal.

I ran a couple of 2:45-2:46's with times almost identical to yours and mileage in the 50-60 per week range. I had a slightly faster mile. I found my bread and butter workout(s) to be 18-22 milers with a middle portion (perhaps up to 16 miles) at 6:45 pace. This is about :20 seconds slower than goal pace but for my fast-twitch body, promoted fat burning which is key. If you think you are better at shorter stuff, than you really can't go wrong with adding this in.

I ran about six 20-milers. Alternating a cutback weekend run of about 14-15 miles and the 20-milers on the opposite weekends. The first couple 20-milers were easy just to get used to the distance then began adding in longer and longer portions of the 6:45 pace work. I never hit "marathon pace" on my long runs. I would do some shorter tempos just slower than and just faster than goal marathon pace.

For my 2:45, I knew, based on a handful of workouts that I was ready for 2:45. I even told a bunch of my running buddies what my goal was and hit 2:45:36

Thank you, that is extremely helpful!!

You've got good speed, but not good speed endurance.

You're not far off, but not there yet, based on your half time.

The good news is you can probably post a sub 2:50 with a 3-4 month buildup.