All time high school girls fastest speed ratings!

Please see my post other thread.

https://www.letsrun.com/forum/flat_read.php?thread=9726638&page=11

The link just takes me to the page not to your post

Just copy and paste if it's of any relevance

Speed ratings are accurate! Everything has a margin of error

So we can debate the margin of error but trust me Bills assessment is pretty spot-on

I love the way people think that somehow their intuition without any sort of statistical analysis is more accurate then a guy who has tons of data and is doing graphical analysis

So maybe your posting about something else but I imagine it has to do with the accuracy

People's intuition about numbers for anything more than basic arithmetic. And actually just for the most basic of 1 2 or 3 is really inaccurate

To repeat people's basic intuition of math is very inaccurate so all these guys chiming off about their gut feelings about speed ratings are just blowing a lot of smoke

This is really good yeah I would like to see a final listing

From what I remember you're basic number is about Katelyn Tuohy is pretty accurate couple might be off but roughly speaking those of the right numbers with about 10 times over 170 and another five or six in the high 160s

just for you

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/16kLSetISoA-Dx_yOn86l_mu5bAjRzqX1YEYcQ5SEFdY/edit#gid=0

Does anyone outside New York care about speed ratings?

Of course speed ratings are what defines us as a people

But seriously speed ratings are the only way to get any sort of comparison of times on different courses

So it's kind of like what if we just ran all sorts of random distance races at each track meet during track season

It would kind of take the fun out of track and field as a sport

Cool thanks a lot

Would you say it's pretty fair in terms of the number of speed ratings for these top runners

Like Tuohy has 10 of the fastest 20 times but does she also have more of her races that are evaluated

Or do we have a pretty good gauge that like ninety 95% of the fastest girls races have been recorded and rated

I would be interested to see the second, third and fourth highest speed ratings from these girls too. Specifically with Trotter, who I believe never had a speed rating within 15 points of that 180.

Can you imagine racing 5k all season and then getting a PR of over 45 seconds in your last race?

Yeah I'm pretty sure Amber Trotters only has a few races on record and those speed ratings were all in the 150s maybe 160 that year

But it's tough to tell if a lot of those races she was only running Maybe 80% then it is possible. If she's really gearing up for a big effort and she goes all out and just as in the zone that day

Chris P wrote:

Cool thanks a lot

Would you say it's pretty fair in terms of the number of speed ratings for these top runners

Like Tuohy has 10 of the fastest 20 times but does she also have more of her races that are evaluated

Or do we have a pretty good gauge that like ninety 95% of the fastest girls races have been recorded and rated

I think that Bill has typically speed rated most races with any standout times in them. if there are girls running 160 speed ratings, they will stand out, and he will look at those races.

most every week, during cross season, their is a notation of stand out speed ratings from across the country.

that's just from what ive seen.

Yeah that makes sense

Hey let me ask you how good are those professional runners that Tuohy beat

cuff was a runner at the NCAA 5K and one of the runner was a 10K NCAA champion

Do you think they're running better now than they were in college or no. Are they professional full-time Runners that solely focus on running. I don't see any times for them online as professionals like what circuit do they compete in.

All right just curious if you have any insight into what level of professionals those are

Chris P wrote:

Yeah I'm pretty sure Amber Trotters only has a few races on record and those speed ratings were all in the 150s maybe 160 that year

But it's tough to tell if a lot of those races she was only running Maybe 80% then it is possible. If she's really gearing up for a big effort and she goes all out and just as in the zone that day

When you're running consistent times relative to each course and consistent relative to the other runners it's clear that person is not going 80% otherwise everyone else would have to be going 80% also.

Just look at the times of the other girl from CA (from Corona Del Mar I believe) that ran at several of the same big races (mt sac, clovis, state meet, foot locker) and you see her projected speed ratings also suddenly jump about 25 points going to foot locker. Nobody runs around 130 all year and then drops a 155 just like nobody runs 155 all year and drops a 180.

what about the performances of the rest of the girls in the race, relative to what they had done over the course of the season?

I think it's been said that Trotter's speed rating could have been so unnaturally high because she just handled the heat so well, it didn't affect her time, while everybody else was slowed. Which made her time, relative to theirs, very fast.

So if almost all of the other girls were slowed to the same degree, their speed ratings would be similar to what they had run all year, and Trotter not being slowed at all would lead to a huge rating.

Yeah I agree with this

Bill has wrote about it a lot and basically Trotter s performance was amazing

Her time was incredibly fast on its own

And it was even faster relative to the field

What can you do the numbers are the numbers when someone is over a minute faster than other top Runners it's going to be a big speed rating

Katelyn Tuohy was amazing in 2017 beating the field by 40 seconds

But Trotter beat the field by something like a minute and there was some other very good Runners that had some great times before and after that race. Anyway I just know from a lot of experience that our intuition about math isn't good and Bill's numbers have really held up and

I think Trotter had the race of her life the conditions were ideal for her and she hadn't been running close to 100% in previous races

I agree, if that race had been held in Van Cortlandt Park for example, Trotter may still have won, but I suspect the speed ratings would have been different. A CA girl running in NY in December may have been every bit as hard as a NE or MW girl running in Florida (on a hot, humid day).

I find Speed Ratings to be pretty pointless ATM. Mostly just opinion on different courses and runners. It's up there with Tinman training with him and his lackeys self promotion.

Look at the results from 2001 and judge for yourself.

Keep in mind a rating of 180.3 at Woodward Park is equal to about a 15:32. The weather wasn't great at the state meet that year (I added 5! points to the speed ratings), however you can look at people's times who ran Clovis and the State meet and see most people were only about 5-15 seconds slower at the state meet versus Clovis. And no, generally people do not get significantly faster in between Clovis and State; look at Nico Young who ran 14:28 at both meets this year.

Note the difference between Trotter and Allen is extremely consistent: 1:26 @ Footlocker, 1:28 @ State, 1:23 @ Mt SAC

The odds of two girls both improving their speed ratings by 18-19 points versus their previous season best is much less than the odds the speed ratings were botched for the 2001 Footlocker race.

Footlocker

16:24/180.3 - Amber Trotter

17:50/151.5 - Julie Allen

(speed ratings below are based off how Woodward park is scored historically, which it varies very little year to year, and the mt sac speed ratings is using the course before it was changed a few years back and made slightly faster than it used to be when Trotter ran it)

CA State Meet (Woodward Park)

17:01/155.7 - Amber Trotter

18:29/126.5 - Julie Allen

Mt SAC 2001

16:16/161.0 - Amber Trotter

17:39/133.4 - Julie Allen

Clovis Invite (Woodward Park)

16:55/152.7 - Amber Trotter

DNR - Julie Allen

After Footlocker West, Trotter was asked what her best race of the year had been and she said it was definitely Mt. SAC. To think she would have a performance equivalent to running 58 seconds faster than her previous season best is just ignorant. Allen had the equivalent of a season best by 54 seconds at Nationals. No top runner drops 18-19 seconds per mile after racing consistently all season. Anyone who has run seriously and/or coached for a few years knows this. You might see that sort of jump from a rookie/freshman at their last race of the season, but never from a national-class talent.

Ezrun wrote:

Yeah I agree with this

Bill has wrote about it a lot and basically Trotter s performance was amazing

Her time was incredibly fast on its own

And it was even faster relative to the field

What can you do the numbers are the numbers when someone is over a minute faster than other top Runners it's going to be a big speed rating

Katelyn Tuohy was amazing in 2017 beating the field by 40 seconds

But Trotter beat the field by something like a minute and there was some other very good Runners that had some great times before and after that race. Anyway I just know from a lot of experience that our intuition about math isn't good and Bill's numbers have really held up and

I think Trotter had the race of her life the conditions were ideal for her and she hadn't been running close to 100% in previous races

Trotter won by 40 seconds, same as Tuohy.

Big apple wrote:

Does anyone outside New York care about speed ratings?

No, no we don't.