Cherry picking wrote:
Stop cherry picking athletes. Here are all of the Mines distance runners that qualified on the Mines track for Indoors 2019. I have their rankings and finish at NCAAs.
(Rank/Finish at NCAAs)
Josh Hoskinson
5k: 6th/3rd
Luke Julian
3k: 9th/5th
Josh Evans:
Mile: 8th/11th
Luc Hagen:
5k: 9th/16th
Kyle Moran:
5k: 20th/12th
Mines DMR:
2nd/3rd
If you add everything up, the Mines runners actually improved by a total of 6 spots as a group at NCAAs. It's only one meet but it indicates that the conversions for the Mines track are fairly accurate, maybe even conservative.
It's not cherry picking to use the performances by the athletes in question.
Hoskinson - Sure he qualified at Mines, but the dude ran 8:08 in a 3k at sea level. I don't think he would've had any trouble qualifying regardless. I'd be curious to know how hard he had to run to get that qualifier on Mines track, but that's subjective and not something you can measure. I'll take the conservative side and give you this one as a legitimate conversion.
Julian - Qualifying performance was at Mines, but he also had a qualifying performance at sea level. Similar to Hoskinson, since he won the race I'm curious how hard he would say that race was compared to his sea level race. I'm not saying I know what his response would be. It would just be a useful data point. Again, I'll take the conservative side and give you this one as a legitimate conversion.
Evans - Not really helping your case here, he was last in his prelim and his overall place benefited from his heat being the faster one. I think this one goes to the naysayers.
Hagen - Also not really helping your case. He was last by over 27 seconds and was lapped by every single All-American finisher. The only reason he didn't hurt the groups result vs seed analysis more was because there weren't more guys in the race. Also, I think you should have him moving from 7th to 16th for that analysis since Winders and Woldemichael were never entered in the 5k at nationals, so really he was seeded 7th going in. I think this one also goes to the naysayers.
Moran - Credit where credit is due he ran well. However, I'd argue your analysis of his performance isn't really accurate. He was 20th on the national list coming in, but due to scratches he was actually seeded 16th in the race. So for purposes of analyzing the whole group he really only moved up 4 spots. I also think it's relevant to note that in what was a fast 5k, (13:46 up front for Panning and Gidabuday and 14:07-:15 for the next 7 guys), he was still 14 seconds slower than his converted time. I'm not trying to take anything away from a solid effort at NCAAs, but if we're talking about guys getting into NCAAs thanks to a generous conversion that they can't back up at sea level, that's a relevant data point. This one is a 50-50, I think. He didn't get embarrassed at NCAAs but he also didn't live up to his seed time.
DMR - They ran a slightly different team at NCAAs, and relays are a lot tougher to judge because of the additional variables. I wouldn't count this one either way.
All that to say I think it's a lot closer to a 50-50 success rate on the conversion than you indicated. I don't think it's fair to say they over-performed relevant to expectations as a group, and while guys who are legitimate bona fide studs backed up their conversion, the bubble guys more people argue about and get upset by certainly had a tougher day. And this is why this conversation isn't going away any time soon, no matter how convinced everyone is they're right.