How realistic is a 2020 BQ?

I'm guessing you're going to need way more than 40 mpw than that to run sub 3. In general that is way too low for anyone to be racing a marathon off of.

Go for sub 3:30 first. Then work your way down from there.

I think June is when I'd start a marathon training plan like 18/55 or something similar. Just wanted to have a base for it.

some noob wrote:

Nov Half - 1:44 (lack of long runs contributed to this relatively slow time, on pace for a 1:40 until mile 10 when I crashed to a 1:44)

If you need to run 6:52 pace and you're crashing at10 miles at 7:38 pace (and you're already hurt), I'd say you should start aiming for when you're 35 and hope it helps if/when they gift you five more minutes. Or change your goal to sub 3:25.

You would be very lucky to be able to go from a 1:44 half to a sub-3 marathon in less than a year of training, no matter how consistent and smart that training is. Just focus on bringing up the volume safely and running the best race you can next year.

I agree with everything that has been said. One thing to add is just how tricky a marathon is to pace, fuel, etc... Virtually nobody runs close to their capability on their first marathon, and almost everybody learns something that they would have done differently.

A sub-3 marathon probably isn't out of the realm of possibility for you, but I think it is out of the realm of possibility this year. Run a marathon this year and you will have a much better understanding of where to focus your training and how to improve towards a sub 3 the second time.

I had times significantly faster than yours at shorter distances up to half marathon, blew up in my first marathon and went a hair over 3. It was a great learning experience, I recognize where I went wrong in training and racing and feel confident that I can go sub 3 this time around.

Learn from mistakes the first time.

No, progress is not going to slow, and things are not going to get a lot harder. You're still learning how to train consistently and dealing with newbie injuries. This next year will have more consistent training, less time lost to injuries, and substantially improved race times.

And no, you should not try for a BQ in 2020, and are unlikely to get it if you try. You're still getting into consistent training. You need to spend some time training consistently for shorter races, improving on those times, and make sure any injury problems are ironed out before trying a marathon. Give it a couple years.

Set new, realistic goals.

Sub 3 isn't like running 1h30 Half marathon.

First run a 1h25 half marathon... then you're ready to think about sub 3.

You will need 18-19 min 5k to run a sub 3 (this worked for me at least).

On the other hand 40 mpw isn't that little. I ran a 2h53 on 40 mpw.

Advice: I would keep running 40 mpw (7 miles fast - 33 miles easy) consistently and maybe by the end of 2020 you could be close to 3 hours.

First HM was in Sept - 1:19, flat course

First marathon in November - 3:03 (1:22 first half, way too fast, 1:41 second half), flat course

Second marathon in May with similar training but a hilly course - 2:57 (1:25, 1:32)

I think you've got to be able to run at least 1:25 for HM to run a 3:00.

I would say focus on simply running a marathon this year. Don't give yourself a time goal and just learn the race. With a 1:44 half I'd say you're looking at something like 3:45 on 40 mi/wk. I ran 1:39/3:40 on 40 mi/wk. I'm going to go out on a limb and guess that you think sub 3 is realistic because you're using something like Jack Daniel's VDOT calculator. This calculator assumes you've adequately trained for each race. As others have stated 40mi/wk is not sufficient to reach your potential in the marathon. You want to shoot for more like 70. I would use this year to build mileage and consistency and try and complete a marathon next fall. Then you will have a better idea of what a realistic marathon goal is.

6ft7inBBaller wrote:

I would say focus on simply running a marathon this year. Don't give yourself a time goal and just learn the race. With a 1:44 half I'd say you're looking at something like 3:45 on 40 mi/wk. I ran 1:39/3:40 on 40 mi/wk. I'm going to go out on a limb and guess that you think sub 3 is realistic because you're using something like Jack Daniel's VDOT calculator. This calculator assumes you've adequately trained for each race. As others have stated 40mi/wk is not sufficient to reach your potential in the marathon. You want to shoot for more like 70. I would use this year to build mileage and consistency and try and complete a marathon next fall. Then you will have a better idea of what a realistic marathon goal is.

I think sub 3:00 is in the realm of possibility for 2021 if you are able to safely build up your mileage and consistency. The most important thing is that you do not get injured and set yourself back.

I'll tell you this... I never really run in my life for extended stretch of time... In 10/16, I started running... After about 300 miles, I ran my first half in 01/17 in 1:40, got injured afterwards for about 2 months, tendons, my second half I suffered in 1:45 in 03/17 on no running training... From there on things stabilized a little, I was getting injured less and kept running, time permitting, and racing throughout 2017... Another half in the fall of 2017 in 1:37... After about a little over a year of consistent running, I sped up even more, another half in 1:32 in 01/18 and in 04/18 I ran my BQ in 3:05 (needed 3:25 at the time)... 3 weeks after my BQ I ran a half in 1:26... I didn't follow any marathon plan for my BQ, I just ran about 35-40 miles a week, plus long runs almost every weekend, for about 8 weeks before my BQ race... Since I had no speed or tempo training runs during the week, only easy and fartleks here and there, I ran my long runs, 5 in total between 16 and 21 miles long, a bit faster (MP+20 to MP+45 seconds) depending how I felt...

So, it took me to go from a complete non-runner to a BQ in about 18 months... Although I have been always active, more than a decade of prior cycling (35,000 miles), backpacking, climbing, mountaineering, so my aerobic engine didn't start from a complete zero...

As you can see, you can do it... Don't force it, keep running but stay away from injuries... If you can run consistently and raise your weekly mileage to above 40, then jump into a decent marathon training plan, if that is your thing... At your age to get a BQ, you need to run 2:58, at least... That would require 1:22 to 1:25 half... You do the math... Good luck, in the worst case, you'll age into a BQ, sooner or later... lol