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Reminding me of the frazier sisters. She will be a nonfactor in college.
Predictor wrote:
Reminding me of the frazier sisters. She will be a nonfactor in college.
Could be, but she was 15th or whatever last year and came back strong in FL. These kids are not machines. Which makes Tuohy winning on a bad day for her more impressive.
I think Hart will be solid in college, but does not have the upside of some others.
So one race makes her a non factor, that course made a bunch of runners look slow, they are no less a runner now than before the race
Predictor wrote:
Reminding me of the frazier sisters. She will be a nonfactor in college.
What is with you people basing an entire career on one or two sub-par races? Something clearly happened yesterday; either she was sick, has a small injury, or *gasp* had an off day.
Also, just because someone doesn’t win every race doesn’t make them a “non-factor”. These kids are humans, not machines.
It's funny, in professional baseball, you can fail 2-out-of-3 times yet be an All-Star. A .333 batting average is considered awesome. Hart (and many of the other 41 state champ girls running NXN nationals) have success 95% of the time which is stupendously good. Yet people pick away at their single off day. Literally no athletes can be perfect all the time.
It is called a prediction for a reason. That means it is in the future. You can predict that she will be NCAA champ and you may be correct. I predict that she will finish 75th next year. She did not have the fastest time at her state meet. She did not win NXR. She did not win FL regional. She was far from winning NXN. I based my prediction on a trend.
Katelynne Hart is an awesome human being and will always be awesome.
/thread
Predictor wrote:
Reminding me of the frazier sisters. She will be a nonfactor in college.
She has a bad race and she's done? Man I'm glad you don't coach.
Few people (Maurica sure didn't) thought that Sarah Baxter's career would virtually be over after her long win streak was broken at NXN her senior year. I still believe Hart can have a great career at Michigan, but long distance running is far from a sure thing.
Predictor wrote:
Reminding me of the frazier sisters. She will be a nonfactor in college.
Couldn’t disagree more.
If you have watched her over the years, she’s maintained throughout development. She’s going to be good for a long time. She looks like a runner.
As for yesterday’s race, while I didn’t watch, the live results show she dropped like 30 spots over the last K. Probably went for it and blew up. Nbd.
Predictor wrote:
She will be a nonfactor in college.
Yeah, I remember a girl named Jennifer Barringer who finished 163rd at NCAAs in 2009. I haven't heard the name Barringer since. She obviously never did anything after that one poor race and her career was over.
Predictor wrote:
It is called a prediction for a reason. That means it is in the future. You can predict that she will be NCAA champ and you may be correct. I predict that she will finish 75th next year. She did not have the fastest time at her state meet. She did not win NXR. She did not win FL regional. She was far from winning NXN. I based my prediction on a trend.
What trend??
That she is a HS girl who doesn't always perform at her peak?? That she has been / and is one of the most talented female runners in the country for 4 years??
Based on your incredible statistical analysis, have you noticed how almost no athlete has ever progressed in a straight line?? Especially on the female side.
At some point remember you are talking about 16-18yr old girls, not a professional athlete.
You are welcome to your opinion, and so am I...and my opinion is that your negative predictions are pathetic!!
Katelynne Hart is an awesome talent...I hope she kicks ass at FL, and I'm sure she has a great future at Michigan!!
how soon people forget wrote:
Predictor wrote:
She will be a nonfactor in college.
Yeah, I remember a girl named Jennifer Barringer who finished 163rd at NCAAs in 2009. I haven't heard the name Barringer since. She obviously never did anything after that one poor race and her career was over.
She saw dr brown. Her stage name is Jenny Simpson now and on letsrun she is often referred to as Mrs. Ed
I pre dikt Hart will bounce back for top 5 at Foot Locker. IL State - David with top time was actually in a different group race. FL/NXR she was racing smart just to qualify for nationals. NXN - obviously had a terrible race, even though she bonked in the last mile, she really was never in her usual spot even at the start. Normally, she would have been with Ewert in the chase group by the mile, but she never really was much higher than top 20 early on.
75th at 2020 NCAA? That might not really be a terrible result. What if she red shirts a year, that's what Covert did at Colorado? I pre dikt a solid career in Ann Arbor.
She had a great race at the regional. That was one race ago. The way these athletes get writing off based on a single bad day is crazy. The conditions just stunk yesterday and between travel, jet lag, nerves, and just the random bad day it can happen. Also who was the athlete who went down early? I thought it was Hart, but I'm speculating.
Unless we intend to hold a handful of NCAA D1 championshp races, not everyone can place high in the NCAA. So out of the 200 finishers in the race yesterday coupled with the Footlocker finishers next week, some will be good and some will be bad. I know it hurts your feelings that everyone can't get a trophy and it hurts your feelings even more when somebody predicts that it may be one of your favorite girls. Go back and look at the top 50 finishers from NXN 4 or 5 years ago and you will find that about 50% do well but some completely disappear and some stagnate. Ever heard of Karissa Schweizer? Where was she at NXN or Footlocker? How about Alicia Monson?
You are making the point that you don't really know the future. 162 people beat her. Are they all Olympians? If you predicted that some of the top finishers would never again run faster, somebody's mother would have blasted you. But Simpson had run a minute faster than Hart at that time so your comparison is not accurate anyway. Sure Hart will run 16:30 in college but will she run 15:30?
Statistician wrote:
Unless we intend to hold a handful of NCAA D1 championshp races, not everyone can place high in the NCAA. So out of the 200 finishers in the race yesterday coupled with the Footlocker finishers next week, some will be good and some will be bad. I know it hurts your feelings that everyone can't get a trophy and it hurts your feelings even more when somebody predicts that it may be one of your favorite girls. Go back and look at the top 50 finishers from NXN 4 or 5 years ago and you will find that about 50% do well but some completely disappear and some stagnate. Ever heard of Karissa Schweizer? Where was she at NXN or Footlocker? How about Alicia Monson?
Thanks for proving my point.
I am perfectly aware that while these girls are elite HS athletes, only a few of these girls will excel at the next level. Just like in every sport, regardless of level (HS, College etc), it is impossible to predict how people will progress. Training is one thing, but the ability to acheive the next level is completely unpredictable.
My point was that instead of you slagging on an incredibly talented teenage girl, and diminishing her potential based on nothing but your obviously imbedded insecurity - why don't you actually try to post something that either has a basis of fact, or at least isn't focused on being ridicuously insensitive to someone who can be heavily influenced by social media comments.
So based on your comments Rainsberger/Efriamson/Werner etc were all destined to be busts because they didn't win every race they were in, and sometimes had an off day.
Maybe it makes you feel better to try to bring others down...
I thought this was a place to come to express opinions. I predict that Brown, Starliper, Dudek, and Willis will be the most successful college runners. That means the others can't be because not everyone can win. Am I allowed to predict who will be successful? You realize that predicting someone is going to win, you are indirectly predicting everyone else will not?