2019 NXN Team Prediction Thread

I think you forgot to include SLC girls in your predictions?

What!?!? No hate?!? Wouldn't that be something...

I don't follow the teams much, but I was very impressed with FM at NXR. Walters looks really strong, and correct me if I'm wrong, but will likely be the top Team runner.

Their freshman Hannah Kaercher was fourth at NXR, and finished ahead of Rauber.

The next 3 finished well, and fairly tight together...although I believe White should be able to do better at NXN.

Here are my calculations for the boys:

https://twitter.com/eric13hill/status/1201950751523627008/photo/1

Adding Bill Meylan's "Morning Line". He includes what the raw data tells him, but he predicts something a little different clearly factoring in how he thinks the teams will perform on Saturday

Boys: Newbury Park in a squeaker over Great Oak, then Louden Valley

Girls: Summit in another tight one over FM and Saratoga Springs, with North Central a very close 4th

http://www.tullyrunners.com/XC2019/NXN_Predict_2019.htm

This is the year of disparity. How many teams' number 5 will Mounds View and Stevens Point's number 1 beat? I predict that their top runners will only run 16:20.

MN insider wrote:

This is the year of disparity. How many teams' number 5 will Mounds View and Stevens Point's number 1 beat? I predict that their top runners will only run 16:20.

Oh I think you are being a little harsh, although these runners could both easily be 120th or so in the field (of 205), maybe 70th in team scoring, but if they run well should be quite a few of the other teams 5th runners, and a number of 4th runners too. On the plus side both teams seem to have a good pack, though in this field they will likely be well back.

If Toga and FM Girls both finish in the top 3 then Shenendhowa (at least) should have gotten an at large bid.

So the Southlake Carroll girl's go from being neck-in-neck with some teams like Flower Mound at the start of the season in TX, then go to compete at Woodbridge and barely lose to Buchanan 6th place tie-breaker (and still beating Great Oak), to somehow, being so far behind all the other girl's teams on everyone's rankings, despite the fact that they have clearly peaked very well and put themselves far ahead of all the other TX girl's teams by dominating regionals-state-and the nxn south regional race?

Maybe I'm crazy, but, where on earth are people seeing that they are not competitive and will finish 20th, even?

Heracles wrote:

So the Southlake Carroll girl's go from being neck-in-neck with some teams like Flower Mound at the start of the season in TX, then go to compete at Woodbridge and barely lose to Buchanan 6th place tie-breaker (and still beating Great Oak), to somehow, being so far behind all the other girl's teams on everyone's rankings, despite the fact that they have clearly peaked very well and put themselves far ahead of all the other TX girl's teams by dominating regionals-state-and the nxn south regional race?

Maybe I'm crazy, but, where on earth are people seeing that they are not competitive and will finish 20th, even?

From what I have seen their girls run around 19 minutes, on a course where real fast guys, like Schoppe run around 15 minutes, or 18 minutes where he ran around 14 minutes. The boys NXN winner is usually around 15 minutes. This looks like a real strong field at NXN, and girls running around 19 minutes will be well back. I hope they do well and place higher. But to date they do not seem to have shown that.

The same basic thing seems likely for N Naperville, a good team who beat Beavercreek in the regional - but that was in a weaker overall field - but seem likely to place well behind Beavercreek in Portland (unless they run faster of course).

At least that is how I see things.

Shen was not even 3rd at the NXR regional, it was the Tuohy/Morales led N Rockland Team, but by a country mile. NY region did not deserve an at large bid this year. Morales ran a season best performance to also qualify as an individual.

rockland wrote:

Shen was not even 3rd at the NXR regional, it was the Tuohy/Morales led N Rockland Team, but by a country mile. NY region did not deserve an at large bid this year. Morales ran a season best performance to also qualify as an individual.

I agree, you can say losing only to 2 of the very best teams maybe gets you a shot, but there were other teams far more deserving, and I think the committee chose pretty well.

runn wrote:

If Toga and FM Girls both finish in the top 3 then Shenendhowa (at least) should have gotten an at large bid.

Shen's girls were a complete no-show at Regionals. 7th place. Zero consideration for a bid.

There have been several years when dominant NY team(s) have made worthy at-large teams look bad. Lockport's boys deserved a bid in 2004. Same with Liverpool's boys in 2005. Saratoga's girls in 2006. Too many other girls' teams to mention, in subsequent years.

This, however, was not one of those years.

I predict that in the most important matchup, NY v CA, the NY girls and CA boys will destroy their opposite coast adversaries.

But hey the NY girls have the advantage of competing since 7th grade so the NY girls don’t really count.

Heracles wrote:

So the Southlake Carroll girl's go from being neck-in-neck with some teams like Flower Mound at the start of the season in TX, then go to compete at Woodbridge and barely lose to Buchanan 6th place tie-breaker (and still beating Great Oak), to somehow, being so far behind all the other girl's teams on everyone's rankings, despite the fact that they have clearly peaked very well and put themselves far ahead of all the other TX girl's teams by dominating regionals-state-and the nxn south regional race?

Maybe I'm crazy, but, where on earth are people seeing that they are not competitive and will finish 20th, even?

What is the explanation for this? The SLC girls ran lightning fast at Woodbridge. I noticed their top girl at Woodbridge is no longer their top girl, but it’s hard to tell if she fell off slightly or the other girls stepped up. Hard to believe they could finish 20th if the CA girls are in the top-10.

Socal Sadness wrote:

What is the explanation for this? The SLC girls ran lightning fast at Woodbridge. I noticed their top girl at Woodbridge is no longer their top girl, but it’s hard to tell if she fell off slightly or the other girls stepped up. Hard to believe they could finish 20th if the CA girls are in the top-10.

I think Buchanan has gotten faster and S Lake Carroll maybe a little slower from Woodbridge. When you get into the middle of the pack, little differences can make a big change in scoring as there can be 2 runners per second easily. Buchanan also has Smith who will likely place very high in this team race, whereas I don't think S Lake Carroll has anyone who will place nearly that high - they are more of a pack.

fastTuohy wrote:

MN insider wrote:

This is the year of disparity. How many teams' number 5 will Mounds View and Stevens Point's number 1 beat? I predict that their top runners will only run 16:20.

Oh I think you are being a little harsh, although these runners could both easily be 120th or so in the field (of 205), maybe 70th in team scoring, but if they run well should be quite a few of the other teams 5th runners, and a number of 4th runners too. On the plus side both teams seem to have a good pack, though in this field they will likely be well back.

I agree with this. But I wouldn’t be surprised if all of Great Oak’s 7 beat MV and SP’s #1 (not that it will 100% happen). All 7 have speed ratings are above 179. If Great Oak wants to be a threat for the title, which they do, they’re going to want to get all 7 in front of Newbury Park’s #5.

Do you realize that they only ran 15:50 on the Heartland Course finishing out of the top 30 in the weakest region? The winner of the regional (15:17) finished 34th at the Footlocker Midwest Regional. No, these teams will be lucky to overlap with scoring members of more than 1/2 of the teams. I doubt that either team would have been top 5 in CA or IL state meets.

MN Insider wrote:

Do you realize that they only ran 15:50 on the Heartland Course finishing out of the top 30 in the weakest region? The winner of the regional (15:17) finished 34th at the Footlocker Midwest Regional. No, these teams will be lucky to overlap with scoring members of more than 1/2 of the teams. I doubt that either team would have been top 5 in CA or IL state meets.

Well I said "quite a few", you say maybe 1/2 of the teams, I think we are saying basically the same thing.

Dyestat predictions:

https://www.dyestat.com/gprofile.php?do=news&mgroup_id=44531