background: ran 2h29 in the fall 2018 (evenly paced) on 60 mpw; had a good first semester this year with a 70:50 Half , averaged 50-60 mpw from January to May.
from June on started facing health problems that got serious and in august and September I basically did not run (2-3 times easy runs in the entire month).
in October started to recover and had a total of 10 runs in the month (all easy runs, like 20-25 mpw, sometimes i'd accelerate for the last mile or so in 5:30 / 5:35 and that already felt hard... mostly really easy runs with no watch and probably slower than 8:00 min/mile pace).
in November was down with a flu for 10 days and basically did not run for the first 10 days of the month.
about two weeks ago i started feeling better and made a come back to training, which I have to say, was surprisingly much better than I expected.
here's what i was able to do over the last two weeks of training:
workout 1 - 10 x 1 km with 60 s rest @ 3:22 average (3:19 fastest, 3:25 slowest)
workout 2 - 10 miles in 58:30
workout 3 - 3 x 5 km in 17:20, 17:40 and 17.40 with 5' jog in between
workout 4 - 20 miles average 6:30 (I was under 6:20 pace for most of it but started fading for the last 5 miles) - this was yesterday, 7 days before the race. This was the first time i've run more than 12 miles in months.
all the workouts above were made in a span of 10 days, plus some easy runs here and there.
i have a registration from Valencia that i've done a long time ago, flights and hotels booked...
based on the info above how fast do you believe i could run and what would you be your strategy in terms of pacing?