How realistic is a 3 hour marathon for me?

I knew you were trolling when you said you had benefited from advice on this forum.

0/10

Anything is possible.

You can do it!

Don’t give up!

My question is serious,. But if I've violated a norm I'm unaware of, please let me know.

For context I ran about 1:24 off the training you did for 1:27 and then in my second attempt ran under 2:57 recently off of 45 mpw (as high as 52 miles) for around 14 weeks. I think you seem to have less ability than me, so you’ll probably need a good 15-week buildup with an average of 50-55 mpw with a solid long run and workout.

THOUGHTSLEADER wrote:

For context I ran about 1:24 off the training you did for 1:27 and then in my second attempt ran under 2:57 recently off of 45 mpw (as high as 52 miles) for around 14 weeks. I think you seem to have less ability than me, so you’ll probably need a good 15-week buildup with an average of 50-55 mpw with a solid long run and workout.

So is the consensus he should target a sub 3 marathon?

I'm in a similar boat, age 45 with very similar HM times of similar mileage (1.25/30mpw). Current 5K is 18.15 this summer. Last marathon (2 years ago) was 3.10 of an average ~40mpw over a 15 week buildup, think I peaked at 50.

Should we target a sub 3 attempt in the spring? or is that pushing it?

Right now 6.50 pace for me is OK up to 5-8 miles, after that it gets pretty hard, HR then jumps 10 beats or so. 26.2 miles of that doesn't seem realistic right now - Is there time to improve that between now an April??

You have violated me. Now that you are aware of me, I hope you will reconsider.

It's possible, but it's not guaranteed, and it won't be easy. I'd say you should try to ramp up to at least 50 mpw to give yourself the best possible shot. Do this gradually, but aim to get there by late February/ early March if you're targeting a May marathon. You could aim to get back to that 25 mpw by the end of this month, and then add about five miles per week every two weeks after that. To make good use of the five days of running you have time for, I'd also suggest:

1. Doing some of your long runs at your target race pace- the first time I broke 3:00, I would alternate one week just going for distance and the next week going for a shorter distance but with the middle part fast. You might start out doing 12 miles with the middle four or five at 6:50 pace*, and build up to 17 or 18 with the middle ten at that pace. If you're ready for a sub 3:00 marathon, this should be a little challenging, but shouldn't leave you dead at the end of the marathon pace segment.

2. Try to get in at least one speed session per week as one of your other days. Intervals at 5K or 10K pace can be fun to get the lead out, but tempo runs are more relevant for running a good marathon. Maybe start with 4x mile at your half marathon pace* with a minute rest in between (if you can't go again after one minute, you're probably doing your tempo too fast) and build up to something like 3x2 mile at that same pace, with about 2 minutes rest. Throw in two miles at an easy pace before and after to warm up and cool down.

*If you're just coming off of a 1:30 half, then I guess your half marathon pace is about 6:50 and you can guess at something a little slower for your marathon pace (~7:15?). So maybe start out with those paces from your current fitness- it's better to complete these runs at a pace you can do than to fall apart halfway through at a faster pace. Hopefully as you train consistently, you'll see the same feel/effort from before will correspond to a faster time.

You run a similar time for a half from the mileage as I do. The general consensus is 50 miles per week for a marathon but really the type of training and how injury prone, when you can train or your diet is going to play a part.

Is sub 3 hour possible, of course but equally it may not be. Keep with the training, increase your long run and weekly mileage and see. It’s just a number so it you run 2:59 then great, if you run 3:01 still a good time

shouldn't be a problem, just go to 5x a week and roughly 55mpw (aside from a few rest weeks) and do long runs with fast finishes at MP (also do long runs the day after a decent workout). Run a half marathon 3 weeks out from your marathon, if you hit 1:24 you should be ok.

Thanks all for the thoughtful replies! I've been running ~20 mpw for the last 5 months but have not done any races in that time (the 1:30 half was last June). I think I'll be able to ramp up this month to 30-35 mpw and can then start training in earnest.

As for timing, I have an opportunity on March 1st, but from everyone's advice this seems aggressive. I'll likely run a half here in preparation for a full in early April. That should give me 3-4 months of hitting 45-55 mpw. Though if a March 1 marathon seems feasible from your experience, please do let me know :)

stevaineer wrote:

As for timing, I have an opportunity on March 1st, but from everyone's advice this seems aggressive. I'll likely run a half here in preparation for a full in early April. That should give me 3-4 months of hitting 45-55 mpw. Though if a March 1 marathon seems feasible from your experience, please do let me know :)

It depends on where you live. South (no snow at winter, no freezing temperatures) - you can go for March 1st marathon. But even in this case I would choose 21k on that date and shoot for 1:24 - 1:25 on it. North - forget about it. Just slowly build up your mileage and wait for fitness increase.

PS: I am in a similar boat. 3 last HM done at 1:26 high, 1:26 low, 1:25 high, my first M this April was in 3:10 (but without proper training - plantar fascitis in the middle-Feb put an end to my preparation, only slower pace runs in march). Looking for HM in mid-feb and sub-3 M in april.

THOUGHTSLEADER wrote:

For context I ran about 1:24 off the training you did for 1:27.

No, you did not. You do not even know which kind of training he did. He just told us his average mileage and that does not mean much.

Now it would be interesting to know the details - long runs (how many, length and pace), workouts (intervals, tempo runs), length and pace of easy runs, strength work and cross training...

However, I agree that the mileage might be a bit low for a sub3 and at least 45-50 miles per week might be better.

But again - mileage alone is not everything, training structure means a lot, too.