Daniels Paces - Aet value?

To be very specific, your fitness level creates a situation that makes your aerobic threshold pace actually slightly faster than your marathon race pace. Think of it this way, your aerobic threshold (by definition the average value of 2 mmol of plasma lactate) would normally be associated with a pace you can hold for about a 3 hour race. For some people, it might be as fast as 2 hours 40 minutes, I have noticed.

If you want to use a general rule, divide your 5k pace by .85 which, for you, places your aerobic threshold pace slower than your marathon pace by a few seconds. Those who are not into being very technical, I just tell them to add 50-60 seconds per mile to their current 5k race pace. For the lesser fit runners, this tends to work very well. From an effort standpoint, it should fall just above moderate but not quite at the somewhat hard level.

Tinman-

The poster has a VDOT of 49, which according to Daniels chart, translates into a 20:18 5K (6:33 pace). You indicated that using the general rule (5K pace/.85), your aerobic threshold pace is a few seconds slower than marathon pace. However, the poster has a marathon pace of 7:24 (per Daniels) and his aerobic threshold pace (393/.85) is 7:42. That is a significant difference.

However, the poster has a marathon pace of 7:24 (per Daniels) and his aerobic threshold pace (393/.85) is 7:42. That is a significant difference.

The Daniels marathon predictions are too optimistic for most runners.Gebs 5k and 10k times predict 2:01 marathons, for example. As you move from 2 hours beyond 3hrs, the formula becomes even less accurate. This is because the model uses 80% VO2 max as an asymptotic limit (that is, according to the model, you can sustain 80% vo2 max forever. So the model will fall apart when you get close to 80% vo2max)