Target pace for first marathon

Since you're low mileage, no faster than 2:55 pace.

I was a mid-16:00 5K guy, and ran a 2:49 on 50 mpw. I thinkthe 2:55 pace to start is excellent advice.

I was on 2:29 pace at 5 miles and suffered, suffered like I've never suffered before or since.

2:55 sounds about right. The best advice I can give to a first time marathoner is to run on feel and go out easy. You want to be very relaxed and under control for the first half, i.e. the green zone. If you are out of breath at half way or can’t carry on a conversation with those around you, you’re screwed. 13.1-20 should be in the “yellow” zone where you start to feel some discomfort in the legs but are still aerobically in control. In your first marathon I would resist the temptation to pick it until the last 5-10k. This will be run in the red zone with legs that feel increasingly heavy and may start to cramp, but you should be able to run through it. If you pace it just right, you’ll only be out of breath for the last mile or so.

I agree with 2:55 estimate. I ran17:32 for 5K a week before, and a 1:22 half marathon a month before a relatively easy 2:56 marathon.

Low mileage, about the same as you at 12 weeks out. I increased that over the final few months, peaking at 100 km five weeks before the marathon.

I ran eight long runs of 30 km or longer during the final 12 weeks.

One big advantage I had was experience. I was in my mid-40s, and had run a couple dozen marathons by then, although it had been 20 years since I had gone sub-3.

So, maybe plan 4:10/km to start? You could see significant fitness gains between now and race day, so that may be on the conservative side. But conservative is good for a first marathon.

Good luck.

I think going out at 3:00 pace makes the most sense given your relatively low mileage. If you get to the 20 mile/32km mark still feeling good then you can up the pace to whatever degree you are able. I don't think anyone ever regretted erring on the side of conservatism in their first marathon over those first 20 miles. The last 6 miles really are a whole different ballgame.

Man Overboard wrote:

... I don't think anyone ever regretted erring on the side of conservatism in their first marathon over those first 20 miles...

Yeah, 4:15/km may be safer than 4:11/km. He's still twelve weeks out, though, so he could still see significant fitness gains.

I have to chuckle at myself, recalling my first marathon. I had no clue what pace was appropriate. Even if I had been aware of comparative performance charts at the time, it would have been a difficult call.

I had run injured through the entire track season (March-May), then took six weeks off completely before signing up for a September 12th marathon.

I rather randomly figured 5:00/km for a pace, and held that through the half-way mark. At that point, it seemed too easy, and I was getting bored and anxious to be done.

So I increased the pace, and kept increasing the pace. The final 5K was under 18 minutes for a 3:15 finish. That closing "sprint" left me completely spent, my legs relentlessly cramping. For a long while, every attempt to stand caused my legs to seize up in horrific pain.

I swore I'd never run another marathon.

Five weeks later, I ran my second. This one was 2:52, with only about a 2-minute negative split. So much better! No cramping, no pain.

Thanks all - much appreciated.

I had in mind 4.10-4.15 pace, so it sounds like I'm around thw mark. Can't wait.