Lawrence Cherono, wins this, IMO. He is 31yo and ranked 4. Won Boston in the spring in 2.07.57. He reached halfway in 1.04.28 in a pack of 22 spread across 14 seconds. His best time was last year in Amsterdam, winning in 2.04.06. the first three 5k splits were 14.33, 14.35, and 14.55. Halfway there was 1.02.11 in a group of 11. He ended up winning by 31 sec over Mule Wasihun. Cherono was 7th in London last year as well.
Brigid Kosgei is a lock to win among the women. Kosgei has not been beaten in her last 8 road races since this time last year over any distance between 5k and the classic distance, including two major marathons. Brigid crushed a quality field in the second half of London this year. Crossed halfway in 71.38, 16 sec behind Sinead Diver in a pack of 8; then ripped them apart in a masterful 66.42 second half. Her 5k splits from 20k were 15.55, 15.36, 16.04, and 15.31 to find herself 1.05 ahead of Vivian at 40k and won by 1.54. I think the world of elite women's marathon running just awaits a battle between herself and Ruth Chepngetich sometime to see who is currently the best among them.
Second place in a major is a bit of a reach just six months after an auspicious debut but I think a possibility for Getaneh Molla, 25yo and ranked 34. He won Dubai in 2.03.34 then seven weeks later was eighth in the Bahrain night half marathon in a PB of 60.26.
Aussiestatman wrote:
Lawrence Cherono, wins this, IMO. He is 31yo and ranked 4. Won Boston in the spring in 2.07.57. He reached halfway in 1.04.28 in a pack of 22 spread across 14 seconds. His best time was last year in Amsterdam, winning in 2.04.06. the first three 5k splits were 14.33, 14.35, and 14.55. Halfway there was 1.02.11 in a group of 11. He ended up winning by 31 sec over Mule Wasihun. Cherono was 7th in London last year as well.
These are pretty terrible write-ups.
I am off topic with this, but are there pace groups for the "A" and "B" men's and women's Oly Trials qualifier wannabes?
Jordan Hasay will finish as the second woman over the line, will be 28 next month, and is ranked 102. Her best time is from 2017, 3rd here in 2.20.57. Also third in Boston that year in 2.23.00 and the same placing on those same streets this year in 2.25.20.
Third across the line may be Mo Farah. He is 36yo and ranked 5. Was fifth in London in 2.05.39. His PB is 2.05.11, winning here last year.
Third lady may be Betsy Saina, 31yo and ranked 41. Her best time was last year in winning Paris, beating Ruth Chepngetich, in 2.22.56. Later in 2018 was 8th in Frankfurt in 2.24.35, fading in the second half, 74.39 compared to halfway in 69.56. Her split from 35 to 40k was especially slow, 18.47. Betsy was 10th in Boston in spring in 2.20.32. Again, the second half was slower, 77.24 to 73.08. Also the same split [35-40k] was even slower here, 19.34. In between those two disappointing performances was a win in the Marugame half marathon in 67.49.
4th finisher should be Dickson Chumba, 32yo and ranked 298. His best time dates back to 2014, 3rd here in 2.04.32. Was third in Tokyo this year in 2.08.44 after winning there last year in 2.05.30. Also won here in 2015 in 2.09.25.
next woman should be the aussie, Lisa Weightman, 40yo , ranked 152 and 54 as a road runner. Her PB was set in 2017, completing London in 2.25.15 for 5th. Also that year was 6th here in 2.28.45. Last year was 8th in New York in 2.29.11. Last month on the Sunshine Coast, Lisa broke her own Australian all-comers record for the half, winning in 68.48. Sinead Diver was favourite that day, but i thought Weightman would beat her. Just a week before, Lisa won a 10k in Sydney in 31.55.
Then comes Galen Rupp, 33yo and ranked 14. Last year won Prague in 2.06,07 and fifth here 2.06.21. Also won a half in Ostia in 59.47. Won here in 2017, 2.09.20.
Fifth lady could be Emma Bates, who is 27yo and ranked 174. Last year won the CIM marathon in 2.28.19. This year has recorded a PB at the half twice in 71.13. One of those was third in the US champs just one week before winning a 25k in 1.23.51. The other half was 4th in New York.
Next finisher will, IMHO, be Herpasa Negasa, 26yo later this month and ranked 26. Back soon.
Aussiestatman wrote:
Brigid Kosgei is a lock to win among the women. Kosgei has not been beaten in her last 8 road races since this time last year over any distance between 5k and the classic distance, including two major marathons. Brigid crushed a quality field in the second half of London this year. Crossed halfway in 71.38, 16 sec behind Sinead Diver in a pack of 8; then ripped them apart in a masterful 66.42 second half. Her 5k splits from 20k were 15.55, 15.36, 16.04, and 15.31 to find herself 1.05 ahead of Vivian at 40k and won by 1.54. I think the world of elite women's marathon running just awaits a battle between herself and Ruth Chepngetich sometime to see who is currently the best among them.
Hard to see how anyone competes with her now.
Aussiestatman wrote:
Next finisher will, IMHO, be Herpasa Negasa, 26yo later this month and ranked 26. Back soon.
He was second in Dubai this year way quicker than any previous effort over the classic distance, 2.03.40. Made his debut as a 19yo in Dubai 2013, 16th in 2.10.51. Was second in Hengshui last year in 2.09.14.
Next woman should be Madai Perez, 39yo and ranked 368. Best time is way back in 2006 with a fourth here in 2.22.59. But was also 4th here as recent as 2017 in 2.24.44. This last April was 6th in Hamburg in 2.30.04 and that is enough to trouble some of the other American women. Has been on the podium in a major, third in Boston twelve years ago.
Thanks for the updates, very informative.
meh not really wrote:
These are pretty terrible write-ups.
Don't read them, or give us your thread.
Aussiestatman wrote:
Third lady may be Betsy Saina, 31yo and ranked 41. Her best time was last year in winning Paris, beating Ruth Chepngetich, in 2.22.56. Later in 2018 was 8th in Frankfurt in 2.24.35, fading in the second half, 74.39 compared to halfway in 69.56. Her split from 35 to 40k was especially slow, 18.47. Betsy was 10th in Boston in spring in 2.20.32. Again, the second half was slower, 77.24 to 73.08. Also the same split [35-40k] was even slower here, 19.34. In between those two disappointing performances was a win in the Marugame half marathon in 67.49.
Made a typo and it makes a difference. Her Boston time this year was 2.30.32. Still may finish third but the Aussie is a chance to run her down in the last 7k.
I am Sam wrote:
Thanks for the updates, very informative.
meh not really wrote:
These are pretty terrible write-ups.
Don't read them, or give us your thread.
Thanks for the support.
Seventh over the line may be Bedan Karoki, 29yo, ranked 44 and 15 as a road runner. As I have said in my Copenhagen thread, couldn’t go with Sondre Moen in Fukuoka 2017 and it cost him two places in the end. Hopefully he runs his own race here and doesn’t get caught up with the top five and their obvious pace. His PB in the half of 58.42 was set at RAK last year and has a time under 60 every one of the last six years, including last month’s win in Buenos Aires.
This men's race is so deep, second only to London and maybe the world's.