Broe - 13:03
Goucher - 13:09
Goucher is in great form, but Broe is in the hotter race. I say they both run fast, but Broe gets pulled along and runs quicker.
Broe - 13:03
Goucher - 13:09
Goucher is in great form, but Broe is in the hotter race. I say they both run fast, but Broe gets pulled along and runs quicker.
Yikes! 13:03 is a bit fast, don't you think? I'd say Broe running 13:09 would be pretty quick for him. Giving him some credit for the momentum he has going for him, I'd say he can probably manage a solid 13:08 - 13:10 on a good day. Goucher is a different story... I'd say he runs a 13:15 - 13:17.
Tim Broe is NOT going to run 13:03.
V6 wrote:
Tim Broe is NOT going to run 13:03.
You're right. He's going to run 13:06.
Broe just ran 13:12 in US Nationals in better conditions than he would have had in Sacramento (cooler) but not ideal conditions. So I don't think it's that much of a stretch to say that he could run 13:05 or so, but I think 13:08, then 13:05, then a couple of shots at 13:00 is more likely.
Please do you know how many people have run 13:10 and never got close to breaking 13.
This is the US all-time list (doesn't include Broe's 13:12) from last year:
12:58.21 ........ Bob Kennedy (Nik) 96
13:01.15 ....... Sydney Maree (Pum) 85
13:11.25 ...... Adam Goucher (Fila) 99
13:11.77 ..... Meb Keflezighi (Nik) 00
13:11.93 ..... Alberto Salazar (AW) 82
13:12.91 ... Matt Centrowitz (NYAC) 82
13:13.49 .... Bruce Bickford (NBal) 85
13:14.80 ...... Bill McChesney (Or) 82
13:15.06 ...... Marty Liquori (FAA) 77
13:15.44 ........ Doug Padilla (AW) 85
In the US, we've had a lot more people who couldn't get TO 13:10, and of the two who did, one broke 13. Keep in mind that when Bob Kennedy left college and got his mileage up, he went from roughly 13:15 to 13:02 in one year. I don't know that Broe is going to improve quite as much, but a jump from 13:16 to the 13:05 area would seem possinle if he really has Bob's kind of talent (it looks like he has it). Obviously, getting under 13 is a lot tougher--just ask Marius.
why is 13:03 so out of reach? His last 1200 is always quick...he just needs to get into go position and get pulled through the middle k's
I'm shooting for the stars & hoping we have a miracle season.
Goucher, Broe, Hall, Dobson, Meb, Culpepper, Teg, Torres & Ritz.
How many of these guys will run sub 13:10 & sub 13:15 this summer?
Potentially this could be the deepest year ever for the US at 5k.
I agree, Meb and Culp maybe not so much but who knows they are talented. I would love to see 4 guys under 13:10...maybe this weekend!
The post by Speedkills shows it perfectly... almost everyone who gets under 13:10 ends up getting pretty close to 13:00 over the next 4 years or so.
meb will